YFSF

YF's 2006 Baseball Preview: Subway Series Edition

We're gonna be homers this year—even though the Yankee rotation is a very dubious proposition—and pick our Bombers to win not just the East, but the whole gosh-darn kit-and-kabudle. (Our intellect, on the other hand, holds very deep fears concerning the A's, the Sox—both colors—and the Tribe, not to mention those bleepin' Angels, who cause altogether too much trouble in October.) Billy Beane, especially, would seem to have his boys set up for a run at the title this year.

Over in the Senior circuit, seeing nothing astonishingly frightening, we're going to go ahead and pick the revamped Mets to—finally!—knock off the Leoless Braves, who should see some serious regression from Andruw Jones, among others. God only knows who's going to take the NL West. The Hiroshima Karp could probably compete effectively against that weak set. And then there's the Barry Issue.....

So, with no further ado, here are our guesses, and guesses is precisely what they be:

Cleanup

It's the last weekend before the regular season starts, and we thought we could handle the pressure.  But the question marks surrounding our beloved team got to us, so Mrs. SF and I are off to sunny SoCal for a little R&R.  Hopefully our accommodations will help relieve the tensions in our system.  And perhaps we'll see someone famous.  Back on Sunday.

Bud Selig's George Mitchell's Truth Commission

We've already said our peace on the steroid contretemps, and if you read it you're well aware that we're more than a little dubious about a commission commissioned by the current commissioner. And we're not crazy about a member of the Red Sox board having anything to do with an investigation into—let's be frank about it—Barry Bonds and two New York Yankees. They may not be the most sympathetic figures; but we hope they shouldn't be scapegoats for what was a league-wide problem. Okay. Enough said. For the moment.

Early Vacation

I haven't researched the precedent for what kind of suspension you get for suckering a guy at home plate, but Julian Tavarez just got 10 games.  I would have bought 20 (or 6 for that matter, who the hell knows).  Anyhow, I guess someone needs to add a name to their website.

The best line belongs to Terry Francona, who said that he was "a little surprised" and that he knows "they didn't have video so I'm not sure what they're going on."  Obviously nobody has told Tito about google image searching.

Throwback Duds

Our friend Paul Lukas of Uniwatch notes that on Sundays this season the Brewers will be reviving their brilliant MB ball-in-glove logo, and the White Sox will be featuring a replica of their 1906 championship duds, including a cap with piping and no type. Bully.

NY Tabloid Pullout Smackdown

The Post and the Daily News come out today with pullout season preview sections. We rate them, for your pleasure and edification....

Page count
News: 36
Post: 28
Edge: News.

Nutso prediction
News: Colorado Rockies, over .500
Post: Grady Sizemore, AL MVP (Yeah, we're stupified)
Edge: Post. Because we love crazy.

Scouting reports, division breakdowns, news coverage
News: Heavily reported, lots of info, including "scout's" take.
Post: Skimpy.
Edge: News. Big time.

Shameless boosterism
Both predict 1st place finish for Yanks, 2nd place finish for Mets. But news calls Yanks "armed and old," and is in general more realistic
Edge: News. Because we also like a little bit of reality.

Bonus feature
News: None.
Post: Mariano Rivera Poster—Enter Sandman!
Edge: Post.

The Winner
An easy call this year; The Daily News is our hands down tabloid champ. But we're still not sure it was worth the .50 cents.

What We're Reading

The whole Barry thing got you down? Take a tip from the Wall Street Journal, which tossed some major props to one of our best "advertisers" yesterday:

Every spring the display tables of bookstores groan with the weight of countless titles on baseball -- biographies, journalist's memoirs, statistical guides and investigations into the public and private lives of notorious players, like (this year) Barry Bonds. In such a mix, Mark Lamster's "Spalding's World Tour" might be overlooked as just another sepia-tinted snapshot of baseball in the pre-Babe Ruth era. I hope not. Mr. Lamster brings to life a remarkable episode in the history of commerce, celebrity and sport....Spalding's madcap promotional six-month tour—a 30,000-mile journey around the globe in 1888-89—is the centerpiece of Mr. Lamster's entertaining book....In the course of his narrative, Mr. Lamster contrasts the struggles of baseball in the late 19th century to those of today. Even a century ago, there were battles over revenue sharing and feelings of antipathy between athletes and owners. Still, a modern fan who has grown tired of the grim drumbeat of steroids and scandal will find "Spalding's World Tour" a welcome change of pace.

Highly recommended.

PS: We hear there'll be a reading for this work of genius in New York next Monday at the Half King. 7 PM. We'll be there....

The Annual "Show'em How Little You Know" Thread: SF's 2006 Predictions

Last year YF took the crown, with more correct predictions than yours truly.  This year it will be different.  And that's not because we expect to do much better than him (these predictions are at once fun, silly, and fruitless, owing to the major roster changes that occur over the course of any given season).  It's because we have a spry and young mind in our midst now, in the form of Nick-YF, and we're nervous.  We better raise our game.  So here goes:

AL East: TB, Bal, Tor, Bos, NY

Sorry, lost my mind there for a second. Now, for real:

AL East: Boston, NY, Tor, TB, Bal  (what would biased predictions be without a little homerism?)
AL Central: Min, Cle, Chi, Det, KC
AL West: LAAoA, Oak, Sea, Tex
AL WC: NY (ride that offense to first round disappointment, baby!)

NL East: Atl, Phi, NY, DC, Fla
NL Central: StL, Hou, Chi, Mil, Cin, Pitt
NL West: LA, AZ, SD, SF, Col
NL WC: Phi

AL Champ: Bos
NL Champ: StL
WS Champ: Bos

AL Cy: Santana
AL MVP: A-Rod
AL Man: Gardenhire
AL ROY: Johjima
NL Cy: Peavy
NL MVP: Howard
NL Man: Manuel
NL ROY: Zimmerman

Call it wishful thinking, call it a Bostonian's biased boosterism, but we call it the year the Yankees rely too heavily on their offense while their defense up the middle and pitching staff crumble and the Red Sox shoot by them for the division.  Finally.  There are simply too many question marks for the men from the Bronx.  Is Mike Mussina cooked?  Is Wang for real (or dependable from a health standpoint)?  Will the real Aaron Small finally show up?  Is Jorge Posada going to play like he's 47 years old? Our answers?  "Like a hot dog at a tailgate", "every other start", "in his first start, and every start thereafter", and "nope, like he's 44".  Now before everyone (Yankees fans, that is) gets in a tizzy, we admit that yes, the Red Sox have similar question marks - can Beckett throw 200 innings and stay healthy?  Can Schilling rebound?  Is Foulke still a viable Major League closer?  Who's on third? Will Manny lose a fly ball in the glare of his PSP?  But we predict at least two of those get "yes" answers, and handheld video games have already been banned from the Sox' clubhouse.  Optimism abounds.

As for the rest of the league, we profess that since giving up the drug of rotisserie baseball our in-depth knowledge of starting players, bench jockeys, and minor league talent down to the Single A level has dropped precipitously.  So we came up with our remaining prognostications based on a little bit of research, some cursory residual knowledge, and a dartboard.  We have high hopes for the Phillies, no confidence in the Mets' staff, no idea how many games Barry Bonds is going to play so therefore cannot locate the Giants with any confidence, but conversely know that the Cubs are going to do their thing and break the streak of tired, winless franchises grabbing the World Series title, and thank god for that.  Who needs happy Cubs fans, right? 

Next up, over the course of the rest of the week, this site's two Yankees fans weigh in.  Just like here, don't plan on being too surprised by what you'll read.

The Wisdom of Flashman

Great events are decided by trifles. Scholars, of course, won't have it so. Policies, they say, and the subtly laid schemes of statesmen, are what influence the destiny of nations; the opinions of intellectuals, the writings of philosophers, settle the fate of mankind. Well, they may do their share, but in my experience the course of history is as often settled by someone having a belly-ache, or not sleeping well, or a sailor getting drunk, or some aristocratic harlot wraggling her backside.—Harry Flashman

Those not familiar with George MacDonald Fraser's series of historical novels—ostensibly, the "papers" of Harry Flashman, nonpareil rogue of the British empire—would do well to get acquainted with these works of genius, from which the above quote is purloined. (Specifically, it is from the first page of the second volume, Royal Flash.) We quote it here because it seems so applicable to baseball. Luck. Chance. Fate. The random act. How easy it is for the best laid plans (of Theo! of Cash!) to be dashed by a flukey play or circumstance. But maybe that's what makes the game interesting. Something to keep in mind over the next week, as we're all studying our stat sheets, PECOTA projections, and other analytical tools so we can better predict the fortunes of our favored franchises as the season is set to begin.

Graffanino for Bupkis

Proving that every day is not Theo's day, the Royals today picked up second baseman Tony Graffanino (a decent glove man with a .366 obp) off the waiver wire. In exchange, Theo secured exactly nothing. Nada. Zilch. Zippo.