Randy Post-Mortem: Mortem?

Randy struggled last night, and it was for the third time in his last four decisions. Cooked? Still warming up? Changing his (pin)stripes? It's the talk of the baseball nation. On Bronx Banter, Alex Belth notes YES color man Al Leiter's observation that RJ in having trouble adjusting to the reality that he can no longer just blow people away, though he's still got the tools to be dominant. At WasWatching, Steve Lombardi notes the decline in the K-rate this year over last, and speculates age is catching up with our Unit. And then there's the brilliant Will Leitch of Deadspin: "We just feel wary about the whole Randy Johnson experience right now. Something dramatic is going to happen before June; either he rebounds in glorious fashion, or his left arm flies off and hits a press box window during his follow through."

We're not quite ready to give up the ghost yet. There's plenty of reason to be nervous. But there's also the possibility that we're revisiting this post in November, when Johnson has another Cy on his resume. Our guess: he ends up solid if not spectacular, with flashes of brilliance, and generally above average. Anyway, it's going to be an interesting summer.

Comments

[Sam]

Sorry, YF, but I think Randy's goose is cooked. I agree with Leiter's observation, but whether RJ has patience to change his approach completely is another matter.

Watching him last night, I was asking myself whether he may just retire this year, final year of the contract be damned. He doesn't strike me as the kind of guy who would happy go through a Kevin Brown-like decline.

[SF]

generally above average

Good return on investment, there.

[YF]

SF: I'm not going to regret the RJ deal. It came with risk, but the upside was too huge not to take, and the Yanks needed an ace. My recollection was that you, too, approved the deal. The Yanks can afford to take financial risks. And I'm not going to agree with Sam here. It's a little early to be declaring RJ done.

[SF]

I never said I disapproved of the deal. I was simply observing.

[LocklandSF]

Does he need to make the same adjustments that Schill made? Is he able to make those adjustments? I'm not saying he needs to, either way, or that Schill is a sure thing now, it just seems that the changes Schill made seem to be working and he has settled in to the reality that he can't simply blow it by people any more. If that is the same reality for RJ, can he do it?

[TwoRedSeats]

I don't think anyone still wearing a mullet/mustahce combo the likes of Randy Johnson's is smart enough to adjust their repertoire at age 42.

[NickYF]

It seems to me he didn't have dominate stuff last year and he had a fine season, especially in the 2nd half (as Sox fans may recall, or was that someone else easily handling Sox batters that last regular season weekend in Boston?)

[Sam]

Lockland, what has Schill done to change his style? I only see the Sox when they play the Yanks, and I haven't heard anything about this. I thought it was a just a question of him getting healthy.

And TwoRedSeats, I know you're joking, but I don't think RJ is dumb. I think he's stubborn. Same result, though - he won't change.

[SF]

Isn't Johnson's problem now consistency and location, not velocity? That might indicate simply declining ability, like a slower bat does for a hitter, or a wilder driver in golf. There are plenty of former sluggers who are still very very strong, who can still generate plenty of bat speed (or who can bench press a ton) but their reaction time has decreased. Seems to me that a guy like Johnson may still be able to top it out in the high 90s, but he may no longer be able to pinpoint it, and to pinpoint it he has to drop the velocity a tiny bit, opening himself up to lesser hitters.

I am guessing one of the best scenarios for "adjusting" to this natural aging process is if the pitcher in question had insane offspeed stuff as well as heat. Pedro's probably the best example: a guy who can throw three types of changeups. And even now with all his adjustments Pedro isn't the same - he gets taken deep more, he can't just get guys out at will, he has to work a lot harder, at least to me. And he's playing in a pitcher's league, at that. Is Johnson the type of pitcher who can adjust so as to be equally effective as before, or is he the type of pitcher who is going to have to adjust just to be "generally above average"? Is he just too old to really adjust at all? Or does he even need to adjust (is this just a speed bump, that is)? A few more starts are needed, I think.

[Sam]

I think it's quite simple: every now and again, he'll have a totally dominant start, strike out 7-8 batters and look his old self. The rest of the time he'll be what we've seen recently - quite hittable and at best generally above average, but that's it.

What's important for the Yanks is, if they get to the playoffs, which RJ shows up in October.

[MJL in L.A.]

13-11 for the Unit, with an ERA around 5.

[YF]

SF: Steve Lombardi's point, over on WasWatchng, is that velocity is the problem, NOT consistency, and he notes that Johnson's walk and homer rates have not declined, and that this indicates that the suggestion that he's no longer "hitting his spots" is bunk. Take it for what you will. Seems to me the issue is that his heater is a little slower, and he's now and then leaving a flat slider over the middle.

[SF]

YF:

I am not sure I am saying anything different than Lombardi, just perhaps less eloquently. I think it's possible that Johnson, in a non-game situation, can rear back and still chuck it 98-99. But when he's in a game situation he can't afford the wildness that comes with the velocity, so he pulls back a little in order to maintain control (hence the walk rate staying steady).

My point was that he can still hit his spots, but like you say he has to take something off in order to do it. I don't necessarily think this means that Johnson is no longer physically capable of throwing gas, he just can't control his gas (bad image, somewhat intentional), and therefore doesn't throw it as much. Which, of course, makes him more hittable.

[soxroxny]

The other night flipping through the channels I saw Boston Sports Tonight on FSN New York I thought it was a mistake they were showing highlights from the Red Sox game. It was around 10 when I saw it.

[Spidey]

Re Unit's gas: with any luck, RJ will realize that he doesn't need to K 15 guys a game anymore to be effective, and he'll adjust accordingly. He still has plenty of nasty stuff to dominate, if he maybe just changes his approach a bit. I mean, look at what Maddux is doing with 85mph "fastballs." Different pitchers entirely, I know, but still. I think Unit will be fine. And the warmer weather will only help his creaky back and knees.

But SF's gas control joke reminds me of a game we used to play years ago where the question was: Which celebrity would you least want to be trapped with in tight, airless quarters when he/she lets one rip? (Okay, so grad school was a strange time.) I think we settled on Ernest Borgnine as numero uno, but Maggie Thatcher was up there, I remember. Unit might make make the top 25.

[SF]

If the place is airless, then how can you identify the occasion of the olfactory offender?

[YF]

Just when i thought this site couldn't get any more debased!

[Nick]

seems to me the obvious choice has to be Meat Loaf.

[SF]

Mario Batali

[NYYFan in Boston]

Ortiz for sure on that one.

[T]

Bea Arthur

[SF]

Dude, Ortiz is so clutch his gas probably smells like freshly crisp bacon.

And now I am going to go bury my head in a hole for posting that...

[mattymatty]

I say Giambi. I bet steriods give you some nasty gas.

[Nick]

Schilling during a conference call with Callahan, after he's just eaten sardines and stinky cheese (your choice). It would be an attack on my ears, nose and mind all at once. The mix of breath, fart, his voice and what he's saying would be all too much. The horror!

[Nick]

Nick=NickYF. I sometimes wax nostalgic for my old name.

[NYYFan in Boston]

SF, are you really telling me you would compare the smell of Ortiz' farts to something good? I think you have been brainwashed my friend. That or your have your head shoved a little to far up his ass.

[walein]

Regardless of the gastro-issues of any teams pitching staff, I think we will see Randy Johnson come back to form and pitch rather effectively and consistently as the year goes on. He hasn't lost velocity and if he is having problems with his K rate it's most likely location and control issues.
That being said...isn't this the same conversation we had about Mo at this time alst year? (Minus the gas thing--by the way, Mo doesn't have gas...it's a zen thing).

[sandy]

My take? Clemens' inspired confidence on any aged arm attached to a pitcher who's glory days were really glorious. GM's are (Cashman is exhibit A) looking to the "over 40 on the hill" crowd to anchor their staff expecting them all to remain top pitchers despite being past their prime.

Clemens, while not quite the same pitcher he was in Boston, is a force to be reckoned with despite his long resume (and on again/off again retirement). RJ? Not so much.

Don't get me wrong. I think Johnson can still pitch. I think he's still not a bad guy to have on your roster. I don't think he's still "Ace" material though. Get a great young arm to lead your staff. Get the old guy to mentor from behind.

Then again, I also stomped my feet in a massive Bomber-fan tantrum when the Sox picked up Beckett. April seems to imply my tantrum was a tad premature. Point is, what the heck do I know. I sit on my couch. I watch baseball. Take my 2cts with a massive grain of salt.

[Sam]

I think the only thing that Clemens' remarkable form suggests is that perhaps hitters aren't the only juiced players in the big leagues.