YFSF

YFSF Auld Lang Syne

Should auld acquaintance be forgot,
And never brought to mind?

These are good times to be a Yanks fan or a Sox fan. May 2007 be another great year in the best rivalry in sports.

Priced Out

Ok, let's play amateur GM.  Say the pitching market explodes.  Say you currently have the best pitcher on Earth on your roster.  Say you know that you'll never be able to afford him once he hits free agency.  Say you get a call from the GM of the Red Sox or Yankees.  Say they ask you "what would it take"?

So, what would it take?  What could you get?  What would they offer?

Piss Off

Peter Abraham hits this one right on the nose. Our government, in a prosecution that was politically contrived by John Ashcroft from the outset, is hoping to violate the legitimate privacy of a vast number of Major Leaguers in a move that is both grossly unjust and could set a catastrophic precedent applicable to every citizen, not just those who can hit or throw a ball. We've been fairly outspoken in our disdain for the use of PEDs on this site, and our distaste for Barry Bonds in particular is a matter of record. But the ends, in any case and in this one in particular, do not justify the means.

Contract Envy

Visions of Scott Boras danced in his head...

Open Season For Closer

Let's assume the Red Sox are prepared to go into camp without acquiring a proven closer. It's not a good thing, but it's worth remembering that the 2003 Sox started the season (by design) with no closer and came a Little short of the World Series after trading for one midseason, and the 2005 Sox made the playoffs despite having a barely effective closer all year long. So, let's assume and hope one of the following emerges Papelbon-esque from Fort Myers (or, at the latest, Kansas City).

Here are your candidates:

-- Holdovers

• Mike Timlin
• Manny Delcarmen
• Craig Hansen
• Devern Hansack
• Julian Tavarez
• Jonathan Papelbon
• Craig Breslow
• Jon Lester or any of the 37,201 other pitchers who started games for the Red Sox last season (Gabbard, Pauley, DiNardo etc.)

-- Acquisitions

• Hideki Okajima
• Brendan Donnelly
• J.C. Romero

Winter Cheer

It's raining in Texas. Dark and dreary -- and still more than three months until Opening Day.

There. That's better.

Maybe That's Why He Asked For A Trade

SF's excellent post about Selena Roberts' myth-perpetuating rant got it just right. Roberts, who continues to be one of my least favorite sports scribes (Lupica tops the list) for her continual negativity, decided that Johnson's apparent trade request was an admission on his part that New York had gotten to him, that he couldn't handle the pressure. In a two page column, Roberts waxed poetic about just how difficult it is for some people to make it in the unsympathetic hell hole that is New York City. Travis Bickle would have been proud. It would have helped Roberts' case if she had actually provided detailed evidence to support her scared suburbanite's view of the terrible city. Another thing that would have helped her is if she had bothered to investigate the circumstances surrounding Johnson's request. Reading today's Daily News I discovered this:

Johnson, who is coming off back surgery, did not request a trade, but the Yankees began discussions with other clubs after GM Brian Cashman called Johnson to offer condolences after Johnson's older brother died recently. During the call, Johnson told the GM it was important to be close to his family.

This is the first time I've read anything about Johnson's loss. I've read plenty of insinuations by Roberts and posters in the blogosphere (none of them here) that the Big Unit asked out because he couldn't hack it. I guess I understand the reasoning that underlies such an assumption, but to me, it's one of the things I most dislike about sports fandom. And I'm sure I've been guilty of it in the past. That is, I'm sure I have called into question a player's fortitude or, more to the point, his manliness when I have been disappointed by his performance. In this case, with these details out, it would seem the height of cynicism to continue insisting that Johnson asked about a possible trade because he can't handle the pressure of NYC. Perhaps I'm especially sensitive about this subject because of recent events in my life, but I feel Johnson is doing the "manly" thing in seeing if he can be near his family during this difficult time.

Barry, Barry Expensive

Barry Zito can now spend his off-time catching the surf at Mavericks, eating claypot chicken at the Slanted Door, and listening to beat poetry at City Lights.  Just like last year.  The Giants nab the over-rated lefty for massive bucks.  Somewhere Omar Minaya just punched a telephone.

The real Scott Boras is back.

Gassko: Johnson Up, Wang Down in 2007

David Gassko has a piece up at  the Hardball Times about which pitchers were especially lucky and which pitchers were unlucky in 2006. Using DIPS (Defensive Independent Pitching Statistics) and LIPS (Luck Independent Pitching Statistics), Gassko concludes that Chien-Ming Wang was the luckiest pitcher in 2006: "While Wang was worth 52 runs above replacement last year, he should have been worth about seven, according to LIPS, so Yankees fans should expect a big step backwards this year." At the same time, Randy Johnson, the pitcher so many Yankees fans are anxious to get rid of, was one of the unluckiest, and Gassko expects bigger things from him in 2007: "New York can legitimately expect an under-4.00 ERA from the Big Unit next season, which will make for a nice comeback after his 5.00 ERA in ‘06."

And that is not all, loyal readers of YFSF. Gassko also writes that Josh "The Most Overrated Human Being Ever!" Beckett actually was very unlucky this past season: "...the LIPS stats show that Beckett allowed many more home runs than we would have expected. Expect him to have a much better season next year."

As with all statistics, DIPS and LIPS are not the end-all and should be viewed with suspicion and applied according to your personal biases. For instance, Gassko is clearly wrong about Wang and Beckett (Wang transcends stats, he is a freaking pitching genius; Beckett is rated better than he actually is by a lot of reasonable people, I clearly understand this while everyone else is a bit crazy), but is probably right about Johnson (the numbers do not lie).

Another note on Johnson: After 2005, most Red Sox fans were not ready to count Curt Schilling out, even though he had posted a mid 5 ERA that season. Their reasoning (which eventually showed itself to be true) was that Schilling's poor 2005 was, in large part, a result of his struggles with injuries. In the off-season, he recovered, and his 2006 was very good. At the end of the 2006 season, we find out that Johnson, for a large part of the year, was dealing with a back injury, which he recently had successful surgery for. Presumably before a trade occurs, the D-Back (or whatever team eventually gets him) will look at his medical records, do a physical and deem him ready to go for 2006. Otherwise, the trade isn't happening. My point is that Johnson will probably be healthier in 2007 than he was in 2006, and he has a history of being a spectacular pitcher, actually a better pitcher than Schilling. Perhaps, I'm deluded, but I'm fully expecting a rebound by Johnson in 2007, and if that happens, he's going to be a #1 or #2 pitcher. Maybe, the money we save will help the Yanks land a Clemens or Zito. But should we count on either possibility? And should we be excited about either pitcher? Why not let Johnson pitch out 2007 with us and get his salary off the books in 2008 when we can pursue Carlos Zambrano?

Hang in There, Bobby

Bobby Murcer is having brain surgery today in Houston. We wish him a speedy recovery. Murcer has never been our favorite announcer, but by all accounts he's a nice fellow, a hard worker, and the epitome of the Yankee tradition—the best part of it—despite the fact that he never won a ring with the team. Annointed, unfairly, as the heir apparent to his friend Mickey Mantle, he was unable to live up to the hype, though he had a fine career as a Yankee and elsewhere. For Yankee fans, his most memorable moment may be the walk-off dinger hit in the game immediately following the funeral of Thurman Munson, at which he gave the eulogy. His return and continued presence in the booth illustrate the "Yankee-for-life" ethos that is one of George Steinbrenner's positive legacies. As an intern at Yankees Magazine in the 80s, I took an elevator ride with him up to the administrative level at the Stadium. He was wearing white pants and a green plaid jacket, and he went out of his way to greet every employee he passed, as if it were second nature. I suppose it was. I'd bet many of those folks, and people like them, are wishing him the best today. Us, too.