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Saturday, February 17, 2007

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These are extraordinary changes, and to be applauded. I imagine there's going to be some major controversy over enforcement early in the season. Called third strikes, and walks in crucial situations. Can you imagine a Sox-Yank game ending on an umpire's penalty? There are a great many players, batters and pitchers, who are going to have to adjust their routines.

That said, I'm fully with SF in applauding these changes. Congratulations go to Sandy Alderson and, yes, Bud Selig, for introducing them. We''re definitely looking at a tighter, faster, game for 2007. That's exciting.

For pitchers, it only appears to change in situations when there is no one on base. The post does not mention base situations for batters.

Anyone have any idea how much the rosin rule will tick pitchers off? I hadn't even heard that this was an issue

These are all very good in theory, but let's see if they are enforced. Time limits have always been in the books and they are rarely enforced, if ever. I once played in a time limit league that was enforced with a timer, the game is completely different. It's one of those things that either gets enforced throughout the entire game or not at all and generally those type of rules do not work. As for having one foot in the box, that has been a rule on lower levels for a long time. It doesn't speed up the game. You can still step out after every pitch, all you need to do is keep one foot in. The Nomar's of the world will still find a way to prolong games and bend the rules. After all people pay a lot of money to see them play, not see umpires make calls. Don't expect much to change.

Sorry if that seems pesimistic.

Trisk: I hope the rules aren't enforced viciously, or you're going to have penalties changing games. But I do think these will be point of emphasis rules, and that umpires are going to be hustling the game along much more quickly than in the past; this is probably the aim here. So, yeah, there will always be slow-pokes, but I would hope/expect that we see a cumulative acceleration of things that will be reflected in a few minutes shave off games, on average.

Do these rule changes mean that Steve Trachsel should retire now?

Jose Contreras might be in a bit of trouble.

Even though the rule only applies to pitchers in no-men-on situations, the math is pretty simple. Assuming that pitchers for the most part have used the maximum 20 seconds, it goes like this:

17 (minimum) leadoff at-bats. 3-4 pitches per at-bat, with enforcement, = 50-60 pitches x 8 seconds = 400-480 seconds of time shaved off games. So, at a minimum, with enforcement (a huge variable), games will be, simpistically, at least 6-8 minutes shorter. Now add in all the other at-bats with no guys on and you might be talking 10-12 minutes per game. This turns a 2:40 game into a 2:28 game. That would be fantastic.

My guess is that, looking back on avg game time at the end of the season, we'll see somthing around, say 4 minutes in shaved time. that's not insignificant. i think we may see a great many more 2:30 games.

keep in mind that the sox and yanks are still going to be at the long end of the spectrum on this. they're taking so many pitches, hitting for such high obp, scoring so many runs, and chewing up pitchers so early in games....not conducive to short games. And this style of play is becoming an MLB trend. So to a certain extent, the new rules are really just mitigating an expansion in game time.

I could be overestimating the impact of these rules on the speed of games, but anything that moves contests in this direction is a good thing.

If they could get 8-12 minutes off, that would be incredible. Your calculations make basic sense, but then I figureyou're going to have enforcement issues, and other variances. 5 minutes is no mean feat, though. do that for a couple of years in a row, and all of a sudden you've got a major change.

I'm with Trisk. I'll believe it when I see it. Until now, the two biggest rule changes that I remember occurred around 1995/96, when they redefined the strikezone to include the letters and the bottom part of the knee, and Alderson said he was going to make sure umpires enforced this "real" strike zone. Likewise, they instituted (I presume) the 20 second time limit (or at least some time limit). Both these changes were touted as ways to shorten games. Game times have in fact remained static since 1990, neither lengthening nor shortening more than a minute or so in either direction. Those rule changes apparently were either not well enforced or not effective, or else there would have been little need to change them again

In fact, according to this article I found while doing some quick and dirty research, the average time of an AL game has lengthened only nine minutes since 1960, from 2:38 to 2:47 in 2004. I think it's unlikely that any rule change -- when it's not even cutting in half the time allowed between pitches -- will somehow cut in half a decades-in-the-making increase.

Interesting, Paul, and also a bit disappointing. As I mentioned in the original post, the enforcement is the big variable and the biggest stumbling block. Without it, this is all window dressing.

As long as umpires issue warnings before they start penalizing, the issue of these penalties affecting the outcomes of games should be lessened.

I might like a provision where enforcement is loosened in close (save?) situations, to prevent a wayward foot from costing someone the game.

Anyway, it's a long season, so some fine-tuning is expected. IE, the microfiber basketball.

I agree that anything that can help speed up plate appearances is valuable. I can go along with the fact that the allotment of time a pitcher has to deliver has been reduced (in theory). I'm curious as to what the existing collateral rule is regarding batter preparation to go along with the change regarding leaving the box.

I am of the opinion that MLB should put in a land mine just outside the box. If the player steps out before the at-bat has been completed or the ball is put in play safely, then blammo. That would stop the stallers, right?

They'd obviously have to work out some sort of deactivation system on foul balls and for wild pitches, etc., but I still think you solve the problem through pre-emptive violence.

Very funny, GWB... Give my regards to Dick and Condi, and be sure to consume as many pretzels as possible.

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