Rocket Community Projection

It looks as if Roger will make his first start in early June, which means that he'll be slated to make about 23 starts this season. Let's assume that because pitching is an unnatural act and Roger is 45, he's going to miss a few of those starts. I say he makes 19 of them, but, maybe I'm being optimistic. My guess is his final line will be something like this:

Wins: 10
Losses: 4
ERA: 3.86
WHIP: 1.10
K's: 103
IP: 114

What do you project?

Comments

[LocklandSF]

Wins: 8
Losses: 5
ERA: 4.25
K's: 96
IP: 120

[SF]

Wins: 0
Losses: 37 (thanks to those 24 relief appearances, Mr. Torre!)
ERA: That sideways eight thingy
Ks: 0
IP: 186 (Thanks again, Joe!)

[yankeemonkey]

Wins: 11
Losses: 4
ERA: 4.10
WHIP: 1.10
Ks: 105
IP: 120

Is there a prize?

[Nick-YF]

If you predicts all of these numbers correctly, you win a day co-teaching a NYC elementary school class with yours truly!

[Kluv]

Well, with a prize like that, I'd be a fool not to play...

Wins: 7
Losses: 6
ERA: 4.68
WHIP: 1.12
K's: 92
IP: 108

[Andrew]

19 starts. They'll just give him days off so he's fresher for the stretch run and the playoffs. Maybe Clippard/DeSalvo/Ohlendorf/Rasner/Kennedy(?) makes those starts.

Wins: 12
Losses: 2
ERA: 4.10
WHIP: 1.22
IP: 114.2
K's: 108

Postseason:
Wins: 3
Losses: 0
ERA: 3.20
WHIP: 1.10
IP: 30.1
K's: 32

10-5, 3.5 ERA, 1.2 WHIP, 95 IP, 90 K's.

[Lar]

10-5, 3.5 ERA, 1.2 WHIP, 95 IP, 90 K's.

[Lar]

Whoops, sorry for the double post.

[TJ]

if we win, can we tease the kids?? lol

[Erick]

Starts 21
Wins 13
Losses 4
ERA 3.57
WHIP 1.14
IP 128
K's 107

[Paul SF]

Wins: 10
Losses: 6
ERA: 4.68
WHIP: 1.32
Ks: 89
IP: 105

[Tyrel SF]

Wins: 9
Losses: 6
ERA: 4.38
WHIP: 1.32
K's: 84
IP: 108

[Tyrel SF]

Oh and I almost forgot

Postseason Stats -

Wins: 0
Losses: 0
ERA: 0
WHIP: 0
K's: 0
IP: 0

[Scott SF]

Starts: 20
Wins: 12
Losses: 5
ERA: 3.90
WHIP: 1.10
K's: 110
IP: 125

I suppose that's a tad generous, but I think he'll do that well, though I do wish he'd fall short of all of those marks, or have them mean little in the pennant/playoff race. ;)

[jim - YF]

Wins: 12
Losses: 5
ERA: 4.24
WHIP: 1.24
Ks: 116
IP: 127.3

[airk]

W: 10
L: 6
ERA: 4.08
WHIP: 1.30
K: 94
IP: 109

[Josh SF (D1)]

Starts: 20

Wins: 13
Losses: 5
ERA: 4.30
WHIP: 1.25
K's: 99
IP: 121

[Josh SF (D1)]

Heh, irrelevant, but here's a video of Manny petting Julian Tavarez in last night's game. I think it's funny. (HT Deadspin)

http://randomthoughts.ianbethune.com/?p=1037

[Tyrel SF]

Hey D1, we were discussing Coco's defense the other day. Mnookin has an article about Bill James' take on it, I posted the link on the Hot Coco thread.

[Josh SF (D1)]

Yeah, I saw that, too. Didn't realize he was THAT poorly regarded last season, but at least we weren't just crazy w/r to the way he's played so far this spring. Thanks for the headsup, though.

[Tyrel SF]

I was pretty impressed by this - "Baseball Musings author David Pinto points out that Crisp currently has a centerfield rating of 123 from Baseball Prospective, which translates into Crisp being about 38 runs better than average over the course of a 162-game season."

38 runs above the average CF is amazing.

[VicSF]

Going with the wisdom of the crowds (well, the YFSF crowd on this post)

W: 10
L: 5
ERA: 4.14
WHIP: 1.20
K: 99
IP: 114

(some rounding... like 10.4 wins, and 4.8 losses)

[suzyn waldman]

Starts: WHAAAAAAAAAA
Wins: OH MY GOOOOOOOD
Losses: YAAAAAAAAAAH
ERA: OOOOOOOH
WHIP: AWWWWWWWWWW
IP: WOOOOOOOOOOOOO
K's: OOOOOOOH MY GOOOOOOOD

[Tyrel SF]

Suzyn, do I detect a little pessimism on the WHIP?

[sf rod]

sorry, i couldn't resist. i've never laughed harder (pizza throwing incident not included) when hearing 59 year old suzyn finding her roGer spot on national radio.

[barry]

Starts 22
Wins 15
Losses 5
ERA 3.09
WHIP 1.24
IP 128
K's 116

Wins: 7
Losses: 4
ERA: 4.35
WHIP: 1.23
IP: 84
K's: 70

(I'm assuming some time on the DL, and some serious regression from his 2003 numbers.)

[Hudson]

Sorry, that was me (7-4).

[John]

I seriously doubt that Clemens is going to make it through the rehab starts in the minor leagues. The guy is done his AAA numbers though for your amusement
Starts 4
Wins 1
Losses 2
IP 11
KOs 10
WHIP 5.50
ERA 6.50
And then Torre and his pals seriously reconsider the 28 Mil

[dc]

roger projections: yurallright...everybody'sawinner....yay

"...38 runs above the average CF is amazing"...help tyrel, what does that mean?...seriously....

[attackgerbil]

I don't even know why I am doing this. Must be a glutton for karmic punishment. Also, I shouldn't write when angry, but:

Appearances: 22 (he'll miss one potential start when something comes up that is family/personal, not injury, related and the "mediasphere" will spend at least two weeks questioning his commitment while ballyhooing/demeaning his preferential treatment)
Wins: 12 (After tonight and thinking about the many games I've watched so far this year, I have no confidence that these Yankees will give a pitcher who usually throws decent games regular run support, but I can't always piss on the parade, so let's bump it up a bit more than I think I should)
Losses: 5 (maybe a bit optimistic, I agree)
ND: 5 (only one is where Clemens was losing or tied when pulled)
CG: One shutout, probably a two hitter or so
IP: 132 (6 per appearance)
Hits: 107
BB: 38 (for Curt)
K: 101 (The best will be when he K's Barry twice and gets him to pop to the track the third time up...just a-dreamin')
HR: 7 (about one per 20 innings)
ERA: 3.14159265 (Roger never retires; he just approaches retirement's asymptote)
R: 53 (46 earned)
WHIP: 1.10
HPIA (hit Piazzas): Zero. Mike's hurt; if he gets back for the end of June Atheletics/Yanks series, be ready to watch that replay 20,000 more times.

The important question is the one that everyone is skipping:

Do the Yankees make the playoffs? Right now, it looks doubtful; they must sign another decent starter before the break, and even then I think it's going to be really tough.

The follow-up question:
If the Yankees miss the playoffs, was it worth signing Roger? Absolutely. It's definitely high drama. Also, it's not my money.

[Josh SF (D1)]

Heh, I'd come back to this after some cooling off, friend. Unless you think this team is truly snakebitten--and I can't say I'd blame you, given all that's happened--the Yanks will make this a race for the East. I still wouldn't be surprised to see either of our clubs taking the wild card, either. I really like Cleveland still, but despite their recent run--which came against Baltimore and KC--I'm not fond of Detroit.

Minny will likely find a couple diamonds in the minors to fill out the rotation, and really, they seem to just sort of be biding their time before they make the callups. I think they could challenge Cleveland and that either of them could be in the hunt for the fourth playoff spot...but I also believe that their division is more talented then ours, and that they could beat on each other enough to lose the WC.

I'd advise some herbal tea and meditation right about now...heh. This is one of the most important Mays in recent memory, given the early 6 game seperation and the fact that Boston enters a tough stretch at the same time NY enters a weak one. But all NY has to do is come into June healthier then it's been and a few games above .500.

Of course, I'm naturally praying that Boston makes it a non-issue and finishes the month with around the same .667 WPCT it has now (unlikely). That'd make it pretty tough for anyone to catch them without some help from an 06ish string of debilitating injuries. But I don't think it's time to panic yet, unless you're also deeply concerned with Damon, Abreu, and Cano; if you expect them to be OK, that offense will be OK, and the team, by extension, will be OK.

[attackgerbil]

d1: unfortunately, though I wish I was, I'm not panicking; I'm just restating my concerns I itemized prior to the season that this New York team doesn't have the arms in the rotation it needs to win the Division, and that the WC won't come out of the East. I don't think Boston will finish with a .667 record either, and I do think that the race in the east will be close come the end. Would I like to be wrong? Sure! All the baseball fans that want to call me an idiot can do so now; don't wait for the results, I'm not pretending to be sage. I reiterate what I said in April regarding the starters: I've got a bad feeling about this, and so far, I have no reason to retract that statement. Anyone who thought that Moose/Wang/Pavano/Pettitte/Igawa were a core five to take this team deep into October deluded themselves. Blame age, bad luck, bad management, whatever if it makes you feel better. I'm just trying to enjoy the games one at a time and not build false expectations.

[Tyrel SF]

"...38 runs above the average CF is amazing"...help tyrel, what does that mean?...seriously....

dc, as far as I know (and I'm not a saber guy, better ask D1), that stat means that over the course of the season, if he keeps this up, he will save Sox pitching 38 more runs than the average CF would save.

"The important question is the one that everyone is skipping: Do the Yankees make the playoffs?"

yo G, I thought I was addressing that with my prediction for Rawger's playoff stats above. maybe it's wishful thinking on my part, but...

[Josh SF (D1)]

Not saying you're an idiot, though I didn't remember your concerns about the rotation before the season began (Entirely my bad, I couldn't tell you anybody's specific predictions--not even all of my own--without looking them up). I guess the reason I don't really count them out has a lot to do with the fact that if you look at run differential, this team "should" have a positive record. Now I know that's sort of meaningless, given all the blown saves, but even though the offense hasn't been clicking, and even though the rotation and bullpen have struggled, statistically speaking...more of the same and this is a good team.

As far as NY's chances to contend are concerned, the pen could conceivably settle down enough with regular starts from Mussina, Wang, Pettitte, and eventually Clemens to hold things together. I hope it doesn't, but it could. I guess I'm just not willing to get particularly negative on their chances until at least the middle of June; you're right, in that in a lot of ways it doesn't look good, but it just feels too early to completely change one's preseason expectations. Though if this start really has fulfilled your preseason worst-nightmares, I suppose that's not really what you're doing...in which case, well, at least you can be proud of your preseason prescience.

Yeah, Tyrel, that's right. At Crisp's current pace, he'd save 38 more runs in the field then a league-average CF. I don't really know how the metric works exactly, but it incorporates range, park, and zone ratings. Basically anything above or below 100 tells you how many extra runs the fielder saves over 100 games. So a rating of 125--where he's at now--means he'd save 25 more runs then an average CF over 100 games; do the math, and that's about 40 runs over 162.

[Paul SF]

The fun part is that means Crisp is worth about 4 wins to the Sox above the average CF -- or one less win above replacement than Clemens is likely to provide the Yankees ;-).

(Yeah, yeah, totally incomparable positions, but great fun all the same)