Is Lester Ready?: Sox-Tribe Gamer IV

We'll find out tonight, but these numbers are interesting:

• '07 AAA: 4-5, 3.89 ERA, 71.2 IP, 31 BB, 51 K, 1.14 WHIP, 3.89 BB/9, 6.40 K/9
• '06 AAA: 3-4, 2.70 ERA, 46.2 IP, 25 BB, 43 K, 1.46 WHIP, 4.82 BB/9, 8.29 K/9

And for fairness' sake, Julian Tavarez this season:

• 5-8, 5.17 ERA, 97.1 IP, 36 BB, 59 K, 1.54 WHIP, 3.33 BB/9, 5.46 K/9

A lot's been made, here and elsewhere, about Lester's poor results in Pawtucket this year, and whether that means he should be called up, traded or written off. I was surprised that his numbers are actually better this season than they were before his callup last year. The most disturbing stat is his dropping K/9 numbers, which fell far more than his BB/9 numbers. His hits/9 have dropped slightly, so fewer walks are making up the majority of that WHIP. Also, his ground balls have outnumbered fly balls this year, unlike in 2006.

So let's have at it. It's a great story either way. And does anyone doubt he can do better than Tavarez?

Comments

[Nick-YF]

it is a great story! Cheers and good luck to Jon Lester.

[John - YF (Trisk)]

I second that Nick, best of luck to him. Two Cancer survivors on one team, that's a VERY unfortunate coincidence about the Cancer, but wonderful that they are both survivors!

[SF]

Great story, whatever the results.

Go JON!!!!!

[LocklandSF]

Make it happen Jon, everyone if rooting for you, even Yankee fans, so don't miss this opportunity to do something that is very rare.

Make every baseball fan happy on the same night.

[Atheose - SF]

//I was surprised that his numbers are actually better this season than they were before his callup last year.//

His ERA this year is significantly higher than last year, which ultimately is more important than WHIP or K/9. I'm not sure I agree with your statement.

Having said that... GO LESTER! I would love to see a new arm in the #5 spot, as well as Jon making an amazing comeback from what could have been a fatal disease.

[Paul SF]

ERA is imporant, Altheose, but is dependent on luck more than WHIP or looking at WHIP together with walk and strikeout numbers. if his hits and walks are down and his ground balls are outnumbering his fly balls but his ERA is higher, I would guess that his higher ERA is somewhat undeserved. Plus, the sizes of the samples mean we should be looking at who his opponents were and whether they had better or worse offenses from 2006 to 2007.

Although using ERA as a determinant for who's had a better season is a good rule of thumb, it's not 100 percent foolproof -- particularly if you want a good overall view of a pitcher's season. His higher ERA to me is not nearly as troubling as the lower K/9 because his current walk and K rates are sure to get worse in the majors, in which case his ERA is sure to rise.

[Atheose - SF]

Just saw that the Indians are 2nd in baseball--behind the Red Sox--in walks, so hopefully Lester has some control tonight. The last thing we need is walking the bases loaded for Thome *looks at Papelbon*

[SF Kevin]

Is he guaranteed the spot? Or is it between him and Gabbard for when Schil comes back?

[Atheose - SF]

I'm hoping they keep both and dump Wakefield. He's been far too inconsistent.

[Paul SF]

I'd love to see Wake in the pen, but that would mean losing Tavarez. And then when Donnelly returns, you've got a problem anyway. I guess it depends on how Lester does over the next couple of weeks, but I would hate to send Gabbard down...

[Froggywomp]

I think if both Lester and Gabbard pitch well enough to prohibit their being sent back down, the team will have a big lead in the standings (unless the Yankees don't lose at all), in which case why not go to a 6 man rotation to keep everyone fresher for the postseason? Kind of a pie in the sky idea, but Matsuzaka's going up in innings from last year and well-rested pitchers are a good thing.

As for Donnelly, who knows if he'll even be back before Sept. 1. If they have to send Lopez or MDC down for a week, that's not the worst thing. The only way Tavarez leaves is via trade--he's got an option for next year and he's a useful #6-7 starter/swingman to have.

[AndrewYF]

I, for one, hope Lester gets traded for a player who doesn't succeed for the Sox.

That way I can actually root for him on a day-by-day basis, and the Yankees' chief rival gets worse.

I have hope.

[TheFens]

I for one am happy that we are sitting here talking about the possible abundance of pitching that we suddenly have. Here's to the FO keeping these guys for the second half of the season when we experience more mediocrity from Wake and Schill? If Lester or Gabbard cannot net Tex, then we need to leave them on the team.
Here's the big question: What number will Lester wear tonight (Gabbard has his #61 from last year..) Ooh the drama.

[Tyrel SF]

I'm not so concerned about the drop in K's, especially since his WHIP has dropped significantly as well. Schilling and others (I just read a good quote from Glavine) have talked a lot about not trying to strike everybody out, to make guys hit into outs. Maybe some of that way of thinking rubbed off on Lester.

[desturbd1]

Here's hoping the bad feeling in the pit of my stomach with regard to Lester's chances is just from that vending machine sandwich I just ate...Not thrilled about throwing him against the Tribe, either; they're only 8th in baseball against lefties in OPS, but .811 isn't something to sneeze at...

Well, good luck Jon. An accomplishment just to be back this quickly. I'd be thrilled with 5 innings of 3-run ball.

Appropos of nothing, and sorry to rain on a parade, but I just saw this story on Yahoo about a minor-league coach in the Rockies organization who was struck and killed by a linedrive today while coaching first base. Guy was only 35, and had two young kids and a third on the way. Just awful...

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=ap-coachkilled&prov=ap&type=lgns

[Paul SF]

Yay, wireless! I no longer have to choose between the game threads and the television when the Sox are actually on TV...

[Paul SF]

Ugh, Steve Phillips and Gary Thorne. Are you effin' kidding me? Phillips has already referred to the "Reds' lineup."

[Paul SF]

Line-drive single for Coco. Remains blistering...

[Atheose - SF]

God bless Coco. We need hits with Papi out of the lineup.

[Atheose - SF]

Pedroia!

[Paul SF]

Now DP with the hit. Awesome. Comon, Youuuuuk!

[Atheose - SF]

What the hell? The announcer thought the crowd was booing Westbrook, when we all know they're cheering Youk.

Thorne and Phillips suck.

[Atheose - SF]

Greek God gets his walk, bases loaded for Manny.

[Paul SF]

The ump's been pretty inconsistent thus far. Not that I'm complaining, but it could burn Lester, too.

[Paul SF]

MANNY!! Down the line, 2-0 Sawx.

Way to go Manny!! 2-0 Sox.

[Atheose - SF]

Yeah, the ump squeezed the strikezone on Youk methinks.

Manny being Manny, 2-0 Sox. Still 0 outs.

[Paul SF]

Westbrook looks like crap -- three line-drive hits and a four-pitch walk.

[Hudson]

Manny stays wicked hot, 2-0 Sox, runners on 2nd and 3rd, no outs. Westbrook looks terrible.

Either that, or there was a heckuva clubhouse meeting today, with the team fired up to win one for Lester.

[Atheose - SF]

"He just needs to play baseball in this at-bat"

Great commentary.

Drew gets another hit!

Drew with the rib-eye.

[Paul SF]

DREW! 3-0 on the fourth line-drive single.

Since the Sox' closed-door meeting four games ago, this team's offense has been on fiiire.

[Atheose - SF]

"Either that, or there was a heckuva clubouse meeting today, with the team fired up to win one for Lester"

I'm buying that reason Hudson ;-)

[Hudson]

Drew continues the pile-on: single, 3-0 Sox, runners at the corners, still no outs.

[no sleep til brooklyn SF]

Drew got a hit AND his leg didn't fall off, good signs everywhere.

I wouls rather listen to Thorne and Phillips than Joe Morgan.

DP, but Manny scores.

[Paul SF]

Lowell with the DP, Manny scores. Even that was hit pretty hard, but on a hop right to third.

[Atheose - SF]

Lowell grounds into a DP but we still plate another run, 4-0 Sox.

[Hudson]

Can the Sox bottle whatever they've got going here, and inject it in later games? ;^)

[Hudson]

DP by Lowell, brings Manny home, 4-0 Sox.

Jesus, I knew Jake Westbrook blew, but not this much.

Hard to imagine this is one of the best prospects the Yankees have given up during the last 15 years.

[Paul SF]

For that matter, can they inject it in later innings? I've seen this team too often start hot, then go quietly the rest of the game while the other team climbs back.

Tek with the walk. Sheesh.

[AndrewYF]

^Me. Stupid browser not keeping my name.

[Paul SF]

Who's they trade him for, Andrew?

[Paul SF]

33 pitches for Westbrook that inning. Fantastic.

Let's see if Lester can start it off right.

[Atheose - SF]

I was hoping they would not cut to a commercial so I could see Jon Lester walk out to the mound. I loved the camera shot of his parents, they look ready to cry.

I'm getting choked up just IMAGING him walking out to the mound right now!

[Atheose - SF]

Errr, imagining*

First pitch a strike. Good start.

[Paul SF]

First pitch a strike.

Methinks the ump was gonna give him anything close.

[Atheose - SF]

Anyone else think that curveball was strike 3?

[Paul SF]

That 1-2 pitch sure looked good.

He should have kept the facial hair; he looked better.

One down, Youk unassisted.

True Paul.

I also thought that 1-2 pitch looked very good.

[no sleep til brooklyn SF]

God bless, he's a lucky guy. 1 down betches.

Both of those were mine.

[Atheose - SF]

Lester K's him up for out #2.

I'm going to start tearing up if they keep panning the camera to his parents.

Okay..computer leaving my name off again.
Rob

[Paul SF]

lol, You're still anon, whoever you are.

There's the first strikeout.

This ump:

1. Does not give high strikes -- or low ones.
2. Has a zone slightly in to righties/away to lefties.

Rough game for the pitchers if that holds.

Blake singles.

[Atheose - SF]

Okay, this ump is starting to get inconsistent for Lester.

Single to left field for Blake, thanks in part to the ump calling strike 1 a ball instead.

[Hudson]

Damn, there goes Lester's no-hitter.

[smiley]

[Paul SF]

Jon Lester finishes the hardest inning of his comeback.

Congrats to him.

[Atheose - SF]

This ump is consistent: consistently shitty!

Pronk flies out to center field. The first inning back in the majors will hopefully be the toughest.

Fine inning by Lester. Tip of the hat to him.

Anyone see what his pitch count was?
Rob

[Paul SF]

No joke, Atheos. Usually I adhere to the old saw: "As long as he's consistent," but he doesn't seem to call anything higher than the belt, which is very small.

[Atheose - SF]

15 pitches, 9 for strikes.

[Paul SF]

15 pitches, Rob.

Coco with the double.

Rob

[Paul SF]

Crisp with the double -- halfway to the cycle ;-)

[Atheose - SF]

God bless Coco. Triple and HR short of the cycle.

[Paul SF]

Dave Magadan deserves huge props -- he's ben credited by Crisp, Lugo and Ortiz for turning their seasons around. (Not that Ortiz's season really needed turning around, what with his 1.000 OPS).

[no sleep til brooklyn SF]

Who is this new Coco? The iHit model, can we keep him, mom?

[Hudson]

Yankees got Justice for Westbrook according to WRKO. Not a bad deal.

[Atheose - SF]

I loved that part about Pedroia yelling at Mussina for not throwing the fastball. I hope Pedroia sticks around for a long time.

You with the RBI

5-0

[Paul SF]

YOOUUUUK drives in Coco with the line drive! I think he's out of his slump, too.

That was me..sorry.

Rob

[Atheose - SF]

Yoooooooooooooooooooooooouk

[Hudson]

Youks gets Coco home with a bloop single, one out, the carnage continues.

[Atheose - SF]

I almost hope the Red Sox don't get any extended rallies going, so that Lester's arm doesn't get still in the dugout.

There should be a backwards-K on the keyboard. Manny strikes out staring.

[Paul SF]

Manny Ks.

I like Orel Hersheiser... when he talks about pitching. He can get kinda dumb when he discusses hitting (like saying Drew should go for the groundout to second because he hasn't hit for power this year), but he's actually intelligent and has actually had success at what he's talking about (unlike Steve Phillips, Dusty Baker, et al.)

But this group is better than Joe Morgan IMO.

Rob

[Atheose - SF]

Hit by pitch with 1-2 count? Ouch.

[Paul SF]

Double play takes care of the hit-batsman. Awesome.

[Atheose - SF]

Yeah I love Orel Hersheiser, he knows more about pitching than anyone not named Nolan Ryan and Tom House.

But Thorne and Phillips make my ears bleed.

[Paul SF]

Agreed, Rob. Thorne has a good voice comparable to Miller, and Phillips is far better than Morgan. Hersheiser is gravy.

[Atheose - SF]

27 pitches thusfar, 18 for strikes.

[Paul SF]

All that breaking stuff, and he made a 91-mph fastball look like Papelbon's...

27 pitches through two, 17 for strikes.

12 pitches that inning for Lester.

Rob

[SF]

Coco up over .280!

Everyone paying attention to the same thing.

Rob

[Atheose - SF]

Drew grounds out on the first pitch. He hasn't been the "work the count hitter" lately.

Why swing at the first pitch tonight? Westbrook has been giving better pitches to hit.

Rob

[Paul SF]

lol

See, Hersheiser seems oblivious to the fact that Drew was out only because Garko made a very good play. He hit the ball well.

What a catch!

Damn..my bad.

Rob

[Paul SF]

Barfield nearly made an amazing play. Just counts as a single in the scorebook.

[Atheose - SF]

Why the hell was Lowell stealing 2nd? Did Varitek miss the "Hit and run" sign? He's usually really good about that.

[Paul SF]

WTF was that? That's like the old Sox.

Either Tek missed the H&R sign or Lowell missed the "don't steal" sign.

Whatever happened it was ugly.

Rob

[Atheose - SF]

The good thing about scoring 5 runs in the first 2 innings is that mistakes like that really don't hurt you at all.