Better Than a Kick In the Head

Lost in the frustration I think we've all felt about the Red Sox' offense this season is a simple fact:

These guys are a lot better than last season.

I guess that's not saying much, but even factoring out the injuries that decimated the club come August, the Sox fielded a lineup with Trot Nixon in center, Wily Mo Pena in right, Mark Loretta at second and Alex Gonzalez at short. When Coco Crisp returned, he was awful. Jason Varitek was injured nearly all season, and Doug Mirabelli soon needed a backup (Javy Lopez!). Never mind the Manny debacle.

Needless to say, a little inconsistency can look pretty good compared to consistent suckitude. But really, with Lugo and Drew struggling, Crisp still stuck somewhere north of the doldrums (but south of the trade winds), Varitek and Youkilis falling off, and Manny and Ortiz not really being right all year long, is this lineup really that much better?

Well, of course it is. Any time you're starting a living, breathing human at catcher instead of the reanimated corpse of Javy Lopez, you're going to see an improvement. What you might find surprising is how much better the Sox' lineup is this year -- even with the highly publicized flops of the big free agents.

Overall:

• 2006: Fifth in the AL. .269/.351/.435 (.786), 105 OPS+
• 2007: Second in the AL. .279/.362/.441 (.803), 113 OPS+

vs. Lefties:

• 2006: 7th. .262/.353/.425 (.778) 103 OPS+
• 2007: 4th. .285/.372/.429 (.801) 108 OPS+

The Sox aren't really hitting for power any better against lefties, but they're hitting better against them. Twenty points of average/OBP better.

1st half:

• 2006: 3rd. .283/.366/.457 (.823) 115 OPS+
• 2007: 2nd. .273/.358/.437 (.795) 113 OPS+

Here's where consistency comes into play. The Sox actually had a better hitting lineup in the first half last year -- Gonzalez was red hot; Lowell, Loretta and Youkilis all were having fantastic seasons. Injuries and regression took a big chunk out of those numbers:

2nd half:

• 2006: 13th. .252/.332/.409 (.741) 93 OPS+
• 2007: 2nd. .288/.369/.447 (.816) 112 OPS+

The Red Sox were second-to-last in offense after the All-Star Break last year. They're second this year. The difference? Well, a lot of the Sox bats started slowly this year -- Ortiz, Ramirez, Crisp, Lugo and Drew all were in tough shape early before rebounding to completely or nearly respectable levels (depending on whom we're discussing). Health and youth also have helped. Lowell has surged rather than slumped, and Dustin Pedroia isn't Mark Loretta. This is broken down more dramatically below:

By month:

• April 2006: 9th. .256/.353/.416 (.769) 101 OPS+
• April 2007: 2nd. .262/.353/.426 (.779) 113 OPS+

• May 2006: 1st. .306/.385/.483 (.868) 128 OPS+
• May 2007: 3rd. .289/.365/.465 (.830) 122 OPS+

• June 2006: 2nd. .299/.371/.462 (.833) 118 OPS+
• June 2007: 8th. .264/.348/.413 (.761) 101 OPS+

• July 2006: 6th. .268/.344/.468 (.812) 104 OPS+
• July 2007: 2nd. .285/.367/.446 (.813) 115 OPS+

• Aug. 2006: 10th. .250/.332/.409 (.741) 94 OPS+
• Aug. 2007: 3rd. .285/.371/.439 (.810) 111 OPS+

• Sept. 2006: 14th. .234/.321/.373 (.694) 84 OPS+
• Sept. 2007: 3rd. .313/.391/.502 (.893) 120 OPS+

Talk about a slide. In 2006, by month, the Sox went 9th-1st-2nd-6th-10th-last. This year, the Sox have actually been remarkably consistent. On-base percentages of .353-.365-.348-.367-.371-.391. The slugging, as has been noted, hasn't been there as much as we'd like, but with the exception of June, the lineup has actually kept a consistent .285/.370/.440 line. Obviously, September's numbers carry a sample size warning.

We can speculate all day about what changes made the Sox' lineup better. I think second base is obvious, and Lowell's been a beast. But considering the dropoff from Manny and Ortiz, something else must be improving, right?

By position:

• C, 2006: 12th. .224/.299/.369 (.668) 80 OPS+
• C, 2007: 5th. .247/.346/.403 (.749) 111 OPS+

Ouch. Lowest batting average from the catcher's spot of any team in the AL in 2006. Second-lowest OBP to the Royals. Fourth-lowest slugging, third-lowest OPS and OPS+. Even for the Red Sox the catcher's spot was 30 percent worse than the club's average offense. Clearly, Varitek performing at even league average this season is a much bigger boost than we might have assumed.

• 1B, 2006: 9th. .270/.359/.414 (.773) 84 OPS+
• 1B, 2007: 3rd. .269/.377/.444 (.821) 103 OPS+

Cearly, the strength at the position has degraded significantly throughout the league. Youkilis is getting on base and slugging more -- but not that much more. At the position, the Sox are now third in the league from ninth with really just a slight improvement.

• 2B, 2006: 10th. .279/.338/.361 (.699) 90 OPS+
• 2B, 2007: 1st. .314/.378/.440 (.818) 117 OPS+

Nice as Mark Loretta is, he is well past his prime and was overrated in Boston. That .361 slugging was third-worst in the league. This year, Dustin Pedroia has made a huge difference. The Sox tie with the Tigers for first in OPS+ (though the Tigers have the higher OPS). Just think how much better those numbers would be without Pedroia's April slump or the random starts Terry Francona continues to give to Alex Cora.

• 3B, 2006: 4th. .284/.341/.482 (.823) 103 OPS+
• 3B, 2007: 2nd. .326/.384/.506 (.890) 128 OPS+

Mike Lowell was very good in 2006. He's been awesome in 2007. From the hot corner, the Sox have the higest batting average in the league, and with the Yankees are the only team with an OBP above .355 or slugging above .820 from that defensive position. If not for another third baseman in the league, Lowell would be making a serious MVP case right about now.

• SS, 2006: 13th. .250/.306/.368 (.674) 82 OPS+
• SS, 2007: 11th. .236/.293/.347 (.640) 74 OPS+

So there you have it. Alex Gonzalez + Alex Cora > Julio Lugo + Alex Cora. At least for this season. Thanks to the White Sox and Blue Jays, the Sox managed to actually move out of second-to-last place in the league from the shortstop position -- despite coming up with some of the worst numbers you'll ever see in 21st-century baseball. And that's after Lugo got hot. Incidentally, the Sox received 40 percent less production out of shortstop than average. (60 OPS+ to the team)

• LF, 2006: 1st. .302/.423/.553 (.976) 139 OPS+
• LF, 2007: 1st. .290/.382/.497 (.879) 120 OPS+

Manny's having a bad year, but in case you were wondering -- his line this year would still have led the league in 2006. Shedding 100 points of OPS from a power position like left field is not a good thing, however. It just shows how much the Sox need Manny on that wall.

• CF, 2006: 11th. .272/.326/.388 (.714) 88 OPS+
• CF, 2007: 10th. .270/.336/.396 (.732) 93 OPS+

Basically the same. We all thought the center field position was a black hole in 2006. It's not much less of one now.

• RF, 2006: 11th. .265/.352/.426 (.778) 94 OPS+
• RF, 2007: 13th. .254/.344/.401 (.745) 87 OPS+

Not a good use of $14 million when you can't make up the production of a Trot Nixon-Wily Mo Pena platoon.

• DH, 2006: 2nd. .278/.405/.594 (.999) 145 OPS+
• DH, 2007: 1st. .313/.425/.566 (.991) 151 OPS+

Big Papi. Best DH in the league. That's all there is to it. He is benefiting from a Travis Hafner off year, though.

It looks like the Sox have managed to upgrade their offense through ways they didn't really expect -- by better performance from existing infielders and the major-league splash of Dustin Pedroia. Improvements by Varitek, Youkilis and Lowell seem to more than make up for minor losses in the outfield and at shortstop -- three positions (CF, RF, SS) that remain woefully unproductive.

So how does this affect the lineup itself? The Sox brought Drew in specifically to upgrade the five hole that was essentially vacant all last year. As we know, Drew's now filling the six spot, with Lowell producing quite well behind Manny (when Manny's healthy).

By spot:

• 1st, 2006: 9th. .260/.348/.394 (.742) 96 OPS+
• 1st, 2007: 12th. .259/.323/.371 (.694) 82 OPS+

Terry Francona for two years has juggled numerous players in and out of the top spot -- Youkilis, Lugo, Crisp, Pedroia. Clearly, it has not worked -- mainly because he insists on putting Lugo and Crisp -- low-average, low-OBP guys there for their speed.

• 2nd, 2006: 14th. .279/.334/.366 (.700) 83 OPS+
• 2nd, 2007: 3rd. .302/.386/.441 (.827) 117 OPS+

Yes, Mark Loretta was the worst-hitting No. 2 batter in the AL last year. His .279 batting average was good for ninth, but the .366 slugging was well below anyone else's. No other team had an OPS below .720 out of that spot in the order. Pedroia has clearly added spark to the almost-top of the lineup.

• 3rd, 2006: 1st. .278/.404/.607 (1.011) 136 OPS+
• 3rd, 2007: 1st. .311/.420/.565 (.985) 134 OPS+

Duh.

• 4th, 2006: 1st. .308/.416/.567 (.983) 125 OPS+
• 4th, 2007: 3rd. .306/.396/.499 (.895) 112 OPS+

Clearly not as much protection for Papi this year as in the past.

• 5th, 2006: 14th. .231/.321/.362 (.683) 67 OPS+
• 5th, 2007: 5th. .274/.370/.413 (.783) 103 OPS+

From a combination of an injured Trot Nixon, an injured Jason Varitek and a slumping Mike Lowell, the 5 spot goes to a slumping J.D. Drew and an on-fire Lowell. Just imagine if Drew ever gets hot what a 5-6 punch that could be.

• 6th, 2006: 7th. .264/.343/.415 (.758) 98 OPS+
• 6th, 2007: 3rd. .289/.351/.453 (.804) 107 OPS+

• 7th, 2006: 4th. .286/.346/.458 (.804) 114 OPS+
• 7th, 2007: 2nd. .270/.353/.443 (.796) 116 OPS+

• 8th, 2006: 7th. .251/.321/.383 (.704) 100 OPS+
• 8th, 2007: 10th. .212/.294/.349 (.643) 89 OPS+

• 9th, 2006: 4th. .261/.312/.377 (.689) 137 OPS+
• 9th, 2007: 2nd. .286/.357/.434 (.791) 168 OPS+

The 2006 combo of Varitek-Crisp-random injury reserves-bench players was slightly above average in 2006 and about the same this year. Clearly, No. 8 is where Terry puts the slumpers. No. 9, Alex Gonzalez's residence last season was home to Dustin Pedroia early, and Julio Lugo just as he started to get hot. The combination has certainly helped give the Sox production from the bottom, though they get far less now than they used to.

In all, the Sox are getting equal or better production relative to the league average from six of the nine spots in their order and six of their nine positions on the diamond. And they've avoided the injury bug. Those three factors have made the lineup -- as maddeningly inconsistent as it feels from day to day -- far more suited for success than last year's.

What's funny is that the two largest improvements -- Lowell's over his own and Pedroia's over Loretta's -- didn't require the huge free-agent splashes the Sox made in an unsuccessful attempt to engineer the spark that Lowell and Pedroia are providing on their own. Also, I think this shows that Varitek's presence in the lineup -- even as a league-average catcher offensively -- should not be underestimated. He provides far more offense than any alternative the Sox have right now.

Comments

[SF]

Wow, Paul. Great work.

I know you were looking at specific items, but how does Lugo's speed affect the relative quality of the SS position between this year and last? Surely his speed makes a difference w/r/t offense.

Also, as much as I hate some of Tito's reliance on Cora, maybe his appearances are contributing to Pedroia's continued strength through a long season? Just nitpicking, though, this is a great post.

[Nick-YF]

I'm blown away by this post! Great work, Paul!

[YF]

This is pretty awesome. The Sox offense explained.

[BostonRAW]

Nice stats, although where is the real value of the comparison? As you pointed out, we all know the reason for the drop off last year was because of injuries. So if those injuries did not occur what would the final numbers have looked like?

Freeze this year to when those injuries started occuring last year, and, IMO, the biggest difference between last year and this has been threefold. One, moving Youk down in the order and getting speed on the basepaths. Lugo and Crisp may not have the offensive numbers to demonstrate that but it was apparent from watching the games, especially earlier in the season. Two, the emergence of Ped and his .400 OBP in the 2nd slot.

3rd of course is the dominant pitching. Thank you, Josh. Thank you, Oki. Thank you, Pap's. Thank you, staff.

[BostonRAW]

Not necessarily in that order.... obviously

[Atheose]

Wow, great job. Tons of awesome stats! Well researched, sir.

[Brian]

Paul, great work. While the numbers don't lie, in Lugo's case those numbers aren't the entire story.

The ONE thing about Lugo that has been a pleasant surprise all year long is his RBI totals. At 65 ribbies Julio ranks 11 th against the rest of the 2007 MLB SS crop (ahead of both Edgar Renteria and Alex Gonzalez by the way). Since Lugo's RBI's might be a tad inflated considering the chances the Sox offense has given him, a better comparison might be with the offensive minded Yankee SS Derek Jeter. Jeter, who by all accounts is having another good year(a plus year in a HOF career)and as a member of the gazillion run scoring Yankees, he has perhaps the greatest number of opportunities at SS to drive in runs. He stands at 62 runs batted in. This is not to say I am in love with Lugo, either offensively or defensively, but there are some bright spots. Lugo against other SS ranks 9th in doubles, 3rd in stolen bases, and 12th in walks. So, while he still sucks at the plate most of the time, he doesn't suck ALL the time, and seems especially less sucky with RISP (including a Grand Salami), always a plus.

Of course, O Cab is having a career year with the Angels and I would by far rather that the Sox had signed him after 04, but unfortunately my vote doesn't count.

J.D. Drew, on the other hand, stuck at 49 RBI is just pathetic with RISP. If ever there was a black hole where scoring chances and rallies go to die, it's J.D. Drew AB's (or should I say J.D.'s whiffs, GIDP's and pop-ups). Having said that, and mindful of how absolutely horrid J.D's offense has been for most of the year, I will submit that in comparison to Trot Nixon's 07 numbers, Drew looks like an offensive giant. Do I wish Drew was having a career best year offensively instead of a career worst... HELL yeah..., but I have to believe, pray and hope that this is just an aberration.

In the meantime, I find some solace in the fact that at least a dozen times this year Drew has robbed people of hits and extra bases (the 9th inning last night for example) many times making it look easy, by comparison Trotter, as hard as he plays, lumbers around in right and gives up who knows how many doubles that would be routinely caught by Drew.
Drew is not Coco Crisp, or Jacoby Ellsbery fast, but he is pretty fast all the same.

The ONE thing I feel most distressed about the Sox offense this year is Papi and Manny's drop in power. To be certain both are still feared hitters, but neither is the same this year as the mold they have forged for themselves these past years together. I know Papi has been hurt and now Manny is too, but I wonder...
Each was upset about the firing of Ron Jackson... what effect has the loss of Papa Jack had on their hitting this year? It's certainly not something you could calculate,
but I do wonder.

[jeff]

Ahem- Dusty's april slump and the odd Cora start are something most of the rest of the world calls baseball. Itf be like saying without their gawdawful April, the Yankees would be in 1st place. Also, you forgot to mention that your new 2B lead the league in the newly established D-Bag+ category, due mainly to his pathetic chirping.

I hope he does catch a pitch in the head one day- hopefully in the mouth.

[mattb]

Ahem- Dusty's april slump and the odd Cora start are something most of the rest of the world calls baseball. Itf be like saying without their gawdawful April, the Yankees would be in 1st place. Also, you forgot to mention that your new 2B lead the league in the newly established D-Bag+ category, due mainly to his pathetic chirping.

I hope he does catch a pitch in the head one day- hopefully in the mouth.

[Paul SF]

You'd do well to pick a name and stick to it, Jeff/MattB. I suggest Mr. Classy. Thanks for representing Yankee fans so well...

[Brian]

Dear Mr. Classy, so what you are saying is that you, dare I say, a typical Yankee fan, want to see Dustin Pedroia hit by a pitch in the head and only marginally care that it hit him in the mouth. This only reinforces my belief that most Yankee fans are incapable of reason, resist civil discourse and when faced with something as unpalatable as losing the AL east division race, resort to thuggish words and idiotic babble. Thank you for showing us the darkness within!

[dc]

paul and brian, you guys both know that mr. classy does not represent the "typical" yankee fan or even "most" yankee fans...you blew a decent post by even making such a generalization...typical whiny hyper-sensitive red sox fans come unglued on this site when such generalizations are applied to "the nation"...

[Brian]

Touche' dc, I will amend my statement; Mr. Classy merely represents the very worst segment of Yankee fandom. I personally (and I thought I'd never admit this), know a genuinely classy Yankee fan out here in Las Vegas by the name of Mike Greenough. This guy is a true Yanks fan but he is such an upstanding guy that knowing what huge Sox fan I am, he got me an autographed baseball signed by the 1986 ALCS MVP Red Sox second baseman Marty Barrett. But not only did he get the signed ball, he told Marty that I knew all his stats! (He did bat .400 for the entire 86 playoffs) Marty personalized the ball: "To Brian a great Red Sox fan!" very cool...
Mike represents the very best of Yankee fans and I should know better than to stoop to the level of the ignorant rabble. So, I do know the difference between the chaff and the wheat when it comes to Yankee fans, and I apologize to any of you Yanks fans that deserve it. I just get tired of the chaff, y'know what I mean?

[Brian]

Lost in the debacle of last night's Red Sox-Orioles game; Julio Lugo puts the exclamation point on my earlier statements concerning him by going 2 for 4 (2 for 2 w/RISP)with two doubles (an RBI on each), the first two bagger came with two outs in the inning. His RBIs raised him a notch to 10th amongst all ML SS, and his two doubles boosted him to from 9th to 6th in doubles for SS.