Jinxed Expectations: Sox-Tribe ALCS Gamer III

Here's the dilemma.

As I see it, the Red Sox have a better than 50 percent chance of winning this thing, with the starters over the next five games (if necessary) mostly favoring the Sox:

1. Westbrook
2. Byrd
3. Beckett
4. Carmona/Schilling (advantage Tribe)
5. Westbrook

Win three of those five -- a .600 winning percentage the Sox have bettered since April 1 -- and we're headed to the World Series.

But baseball doesn't work that way. The Red Sox scored six runs against a combination of Fausto Carmona and Rafael Perez, arguably the two best pitchers Cleveland could throw at them. Yet they lost. Is losing a game you didn't expect to win, but losing it by destroying your opponents' best pitchers, a victory in some sense? I'd say yes. After all, the onus is on the Indians to win with their best two pitchers. Beyond them they haven't got much.

But the moment we start dismissing Jake Westbrook (who somehow has an ERA one run better at home despite being hit much harder) and Paul Byrd (who was Sabathia-like in sucking yet still getting the win against the Yankees) -- that's the moment they pitch gems. That's the moment Daisuke Matsuzaka and Tim Wakefield both fail to get out of the fourth in consecutive games, while the bullpen withers under the workload.

I think it's safe to say this game is a must-win for both sides, and leave it at that.

Comment away!

Red Sox

1. Dustin Pedroia, 2B
2. Kevin Youkilis, 1B
3. David Ortiz, DH
4. Manny Ramirez, LF
5. Mike Lowell, 3B
6. J.D. Drew, RF
7. Jason Varitek, C
8. Coco Crisp, CF
9. Julio Lugo, SS

SP - Daisuke Matsuzaka

Indians

1. Grady Sizemore, CF
2. Asdrubal Cabrera, 2B
3. Travis Hafner, DH
4. Victor Martinez, C
5. Ryan Garko, 1B
6. Jhonny Peralta, SS
7. Kenny Lofton, LF
8. Trot Nixon, RF
9. Casey Blake, 3B

SP - Jake Westbrook

Comments

[YF]

Maybe it's me, but I don't understand this?

1Westbrook
2Byrd
3Beckett
4Carmona/Schilling (advantage Tribe)
5Westbrook

huh? if the sox are favored, why is there only 1 sox there?

[LP]

I don't wish to discuss saturdays game, but, yet again, Gagne blew it. I really hope they don't resign him.

I'm putting that out of my head because that game is over, i just hope the red sox learn to stop putting him in when games are close/tied.

Good luck to the boys tonight!

[Paul SF]

I'm listing the pitchers that make me believe the Sox are favored. In three cases, it's who they're facing. In one, it's who they're pitching. The Carmona/Schilling battle is a question mark because each threw what we have to assume is an anomalous game, thus giving the edge back to the Indians.

[Hudson]

The problem with calling this a five-game series is that (obviously) it is really a "first to four wins" series.

So, for example, while it sounds advantageous that the Sox would face Westbrook *twice* in a five-game series, if they don't take this to seven games, it's really only once...

Assuming Francona sticks to his plan of pitching Wakefield in Game 4 no matter what, in many ways our season is now in many ways on the shoulders of DiceK, in this sense: We're almost certain to see Beckett and Schilling each one more time, and to win at least one of their outings -- and, in a long series, to see DiceK twice...

[YF]

Paul: without knowing the matchups, it's a bit hard to comment, and in any case the sample is so small as to make the matter moot. Beckett's been so great, and with the dyamic duo of Papi and Manny really rolling, I think Boston's really the team to beat. On the otherhand, it's baseball, so.....does anyone know Papelbon's ERADAGA (Earned Run Average During A Gnat Attack)?

[attackgerbil]

It's somewhat of a push for me to pick between Matsuzka and Westbrook tonight as a battle of starters, but I'm more inclined to think we'll see the eminently hittable Westbrook tonight. No surprise to me if both are out by the fifth. Byrd was the very definition of Craptastic (or the definition of Genius/Hump-Getter-Overish, if one agrees with Caray/Brenley) in his outing against New York. I find it impossible to believe he can yet again run around in a downpour and not get wet. Look at his game log to close this season. Look at the box score in game four. I'll count it as a mild shocker if the Sox don't pound both these guys and take the first two in Cleveland.

[Hudson]

Gerbs, you're trying to jinx us, right?

[attackgerbil]

Hudson, if I possessed such powers, I hope that I would use them to combat the forces of Evil by snark-blogging congressional/presidential elections. Besides, the animosity I hold towards the Tribe is on par with the animosity I hold towards Boston. Truthfully, it's leaning a bit more towards Cleveland at _this_ particular moment. In any case, I'm a bitter, small man.

[SF]

Can we stop blaming Saturday on Gagne? He pitched in the 11th inning of a game that the Sox had five legitimate chances (innings) to score a single run. Gagne was Tito's third-to-last option, only before Jon Lester (there to eat long innings in a blowout, not to pitch in a tight late-game spot) and Lopez (who is mostly a one or two-batter pitcher). Gagne didn't pitch well, there's no excuse-making here, but he gave up two baserunners and got one out. He left a tie game intact for relief pitchers who followed. The seven runs all came after those guys who followed him did nothing to prevent runs. And had they even just limited the damage to a run or two (instead of SEVEN) the Sox would have had something of chance against Borowski, who would have at least had to pitch with the pressure of a man getting on base meaning a tie game could be had via a longball. Gagne was bad, but blaming him for the loss is just plain stupid.

[rootbeerfloat]

I'm on a bathroom break from a looooong job interview and just realized these nitwits expext me to stay here for another couple hours so I'll miss part os the game. Down side of the west coast. this is gonna kill me.

[Atheose]

Awww, we're sorry RBF :-(

[Atheose]

Goddamnit, there's Joe Buck's voice. I was hoping he had a car accident this morning or something.

[Ed]

a must win game indeed... time to shut up those cleveland indian terrible towl knock offs

[Ed]

Joe Buck looks constipated

[DAW]

Hey SF, I AGREE with you about Gagne.

Wonders never cease! :)

[Atheose]

Gagne isn't 100% to blame, but he's still to blame. He shares about 50% of the blame, Lopez shares 15%, and the offense shares the remaining 35%.

Gagne used to be lights-out. Since coming to Boston he's a different person.

Damnit Pedroia!

[Rob SF]

Underway....

Pedroia down already.

[Atheose]

Gagne isn't 100% to blame, but he's still to blame. He shares about 50% of the blame, Lopez shares 15%, and the offense shares the remaining 35%.

Gagne used to be lights-out. Since coming to Boston he's a different person.

Damnit Pedroia!

[Atheose]

Bah, my bad for the double post. Joe Buck just called Youkilis "A big guy" and it messed up the internet gods.

[Rob SF]

Youk draws the walk.

[Atheose]

The Greek God of Asskicking does what he does best! Man on first for Ortizzle.

[Ed]

Pedroia, under .200 as a lead off hitter... gulp

[Rob SF]

Ortizzle hits into the DP. Garko somehow stays on the bag.

[Ed]

damn it, bad luck there

[Atheose]

Wow, Ortiz hits a great shot into the gap but they pull the double play... even though the first baseman was [maybe] pulled off the bag.

Oh well, time for Daisuke to show everyone that he's wearing the extra-large cup tonight.

[Ed]

stupid shift, way too easy of an inning for westbrook... ok Dice K, no walks this inning!!!!

[John - YF (Trisk)]

Asdrubal was lucky that ball hit the lip of the grass and bounced up. Papi got unlucky there, that ball was smoked.

[Ed]

definitely was smoked, oh well, we'll get him next inning

[Ed]

tight zone tonight, gotta deal with it Dice K

[Atheose]

HOLY SHIT Lugo with the webgem to rob Sizemore of a hit.

[Ed]

what an awesome defensive play

[Rob SF]

Great play by Lugo.

[Zulu.as.SF]

"Pedroia, under .200 as a lead off hitter... gulp"

How do you figure? This season in 122 AB, .328 /.393/.492.

If you're just talking about the playoffs, SSS, and he's getting on at .333, which is more important for a leadoff hitter than avg.

[Atheose]

Dice with the K. Pronk up.

[Rob SF]

Strikes out Cabrera.

[Ed]

you're right zulu, that just jumped off at me that's all, i thought he was hitting around .270 for some reason

[Atheose]

Yeah Zulu, but .333 isn't that good of an OBP for a lead-off hitter.

[John - YF (Trisk)]

Is Questec turned off for the postseason?

[Ed]

Dice K be lookin sharp!!!!!

[Atheose]

Daisuke K's Pronkey!

Time for some Mannycenter--all Manny, all the time.

[Rob SF]

Hafner down looking.

Dice looked pretty good that inning. Don't recall seeing any pitch looking terribly flat or hanging. One of the better 1st innings I have seen him throw in quite some time.

[Atheose]

Agreed, Rob. He looks very sharp. Was painting the corner perfectly.

[Atheose]

Geez, Manny was swinging for Lake Eerie on that first pitch.

[Ed]

i concur, lots of movement on the ball, if he keeps that movement on the fastball he should fare well, how funny would it be if westbrook and dice-k gave us the pitcher's duel we've been hearing about for the last week! Almost as funny as if Byrd vs. Wakefield was a duel

[Atheose]

Ed, don't jinx it!

[Ed]

Manny's swinging for the yard, yikes

[Rob SF]

Would be interesting Ed.

[Ed]

no jinxes, and another walk for Jake

[Rob SF]

Manny draws another walk.

[Ed]

it would be baseball! here we go Iron Mike

[Atheose]

Manny gets himself a walk. I can see the flies already buzzing around a few heads.

Time for Mike "RBI-factory" Lowell to show us why we should resign him.

[Rob SF]

Lowell with a grounder back up the middle. Manny holds at 2nd.

[Atheose]

Lowell singles through the middle with a wormburner. 2 men on, no outs for Drew, who is hitting .286 in this series. Not bad, all things considered.

Come on JD!

[Ed]

talk about luck, just as easily could've been a double play! Baseball is truly a fickle game!!!! Here we come, JD Redemption on its way

[Ed]

Oh it's a fickle fickle game!!!!!!!

[Atheose]

SWEET! Drew's ground-out would have moved the runners over, but instead he gets on base.

[Rob SF]

Wow. Drew grounds one to Garko and the ball hits the heel of glove and gets away. Drew probably would have been out, but would have advanced the runners.

[Ed]

Tek...

[Atheose]

Varitek up. Anything but a DP please.

[SF]

at bat: "death with the bases loaded"

[Ed]

come on!!!!!!!!!

[Rob SF]

Tek with a fly out to shallow left field that does not drive in Manny.

[Atheose]

Tek flies out, Manny doesn't tag. Bases juiced with 1 out for Coco, who is hot this post season.

[Rob SF]

Coco is overdue for an RBI in this series.

[Ed]

fuckin Tek... we need to capitalize on use... and McCarver rubs it in (Yankee fan at heart indeed)

[Jackie (SF)]

Anything but a DP please.

Well, there you go.

[Atheose]

So, does Coco bunt here?

[SF]

Tek: useless. Fucking useless.

[Ed]

let's do this Coco!

[Ed]

look for the fast ball right here

[Ed]

You gotta be kidding me, talk about giving them the momentum right back

[Atheose]

ZOMBIE-JESUS-GODDAMNIT

[Jackie (SF)]

COME ON.

[Rob SF]

Thanks Coco. Westbrook looking like a DP machine getting out of the inning. This could be a long night if the Sox keep this shit up.

[Atheose]

Come on Daisuke, we need a 1-2-3 inning here to make sure the crowd doesn't get into this.

[Devine]

Glad I wasn't watching that live.

[SF]

Everyone remember that vile performance later in the game when they want to blame Tito or the bullpen for screwing up.

Honestly, can Varitek just go the fuck away? He's garbage at the plate. Bat him tenth, for fuck's sake. He's Coco and Lugo without the speed.

[Rob SF]

Be glad Devine. Made my stomach roll.

[SF]

If we are going to load the bases with nobody out against Jake fucking Westbrook and not score, you know what? We deserve to lose.

[Ed]

Tek's "mastery behind the plate" will always save him, but he really should be batting ninth

[Ed]

SF, we'll get him next inning, as putrid as that just was!!!!

[Rob SF]

I agree SF. The bats have to start knocking in runs or we are going to be in a shit sandwhich later.

[SF]

That last half-inning was a perfect reiteration of why I was so down on the team for a deep playoff run during the regular season.

[Atheose]

Stupid Garko.

[Ed]

no attempt to catch that Dice K?

[Rob SF]

Gark with a liner back up the middle. Dice with a half effort to try and get it.

Dice officially hangs his first pitch of the night.

[Ed]

DICE K: THROW MORE OFF SPEED PITCHES

[SF]

One can complain about Dane Cook, Sox fans, but one thing I never see in Fenway? Face paint. Thank God.

[Ed]

those off speed pitches are looking great

[SF]

I am already insanely surly because of this game. I guarantee those aren't the last three batters that Tek will leave on tonight.

He's been my #1 candidate for offseason hatred for about three months now, and he's not doing anything to help his cause.

[Ed]

Buck: "You're right, I'll be ok" What an idiot

[Rob SF]

Peralta strikes out looking.

[Atheose]

Wow, that pitch was right down the middle and the ump almost called it a ball.

Sox fans are too hardcore for facepaint.

[Ed]

SF you're going to bring all of my supressed rage out against v-tek!!!!

[Ed]

Kenny no power lofton you gotta be shitting me

[SF]

Kenny Lofton just hit a homer. I quit.

You've got to be kidding me.

[Atheose]

Wow. The sad thing was that that wasn't a half-bad pitch.

[YF]

Yeah, he killed us too. Unbelievable.

[SF]

Curtain call for the second inning jack. Classy.

[Ed]

FUCK!!!!