One for the Pennant: Tribe-Sox Gamer VII

Let's stick with what works:

WIN.

(the Sox, that is)

That is all.

Comments

[Tom sf]

ESPN Classic is showing game 6 of the '75 Series. More mojo. Bernie Carbo!

[SF]

There's a lot of chatter out there about how the Sox have all the momentum, how the Tribe look like dead men walking, how the Paul Byrd situation is going to add distraction. I don't buy this. It's a one game winner-take-all situation. Byrd's travails are irrelevant. Both teams can win this game. The Sox have proven that a team can recover from losing multiple games in a row, so why can't the Indians win tonight? This game isn't going to rely on momentum from the last couple of games; it rests on the right shoulders of Jake Westbrook and Daisuke Matsuzaka, who will be pitching independent of any team inertia.

[John - YF (Trisk)]

Short, sweet and to the point huh SF?

Anyway, I don't look for credit too often, but I want credit for telling you Sox fans this series would go 7 games. This team has way too much confidence, even with just 7 players remaining from the 2004 team. It's never over to them. Really is unbelievable.

[John - YF (Trisk)]

I agree that momentum may not play a big role in this game. As for the pitching, Daisuke and Westbrook won't get a chance to fail, all hands will be on deck. At the first sight of trouble I would imagine there will be a change made.

[SF]

Kudos, John. I am very surprised (not shocked, but honestly surprised) that it has reached the seventh game. I didn't expect that bats to erupt quite the way they have, and I counted on more from Sabathia and Carmona, even with their prior weak performances. I figured there would be at least a little progression the mean, and that that would pose a difficult situation for the Sox, one which hasn't materialized. The comeback, to this seventh game, has looked really easy. I think some of that ease goes away tonight, just due to the natural tension of the game and also because of the question marks surrounding Matsuzaka.

Hopefully the WBC Daisuke shows up; someone should show him some video from that tourney...

[John - YF (Trisk)]

Vegas has the Sox as the favorite tonight.

Indians +145
Sox -165

[SF]

Vegas sets lines to make money, not to make predictions as to who will win. They have no vested interest in showing respect to any team, they set a line to bring out as much money on both teams as is possible, then adjust based on the betting patterns.

I have always been irked by discussions about how Vegas doesn't show one team or another team "respect". Respect has nothing to do with it.

[SF]

(not addressed at you, Trisk, just a general comment)

[John - YF (Trisk)]

More so with football then baseball SF. Baseball lines, because there are no spreads clearly let you know who is the favorite.

[John - YF (Trisk)]

They can't hope for a push or some points to help them win the bet. It's a clear cut favorite/underdog. But even with that said Game 7's are certainly unpredictable.

I am off to watch football. If I don't make it back best of luck tonight.

[SF]

If I don't make it back best of luck tonight

Jeez, where are you going to watch football, Basra?

[SF]

A little history:

On October 21st, three years ago today, the Sox officially beat the Yankees to win Game Seven and complete their historic ALCS comeback. They won at 12:01am on the 21st.

Let's celebrate the anniversary with the completion of another great comeback.

GO SOX!!!!!!!!!!!

[Hudson]

Just to show how unfamiliar I am with sports betting/odds, could someone explain to me what this means?

Indians +145
Sox -165

(It often irks me how a lot of newspapers include odds in them, but never provide a key to their various systems.)

[SF]

It means if you bet on the Sox you need to bet one dollar to win 65 cents. A one dollar bet on the Sox returns $1.65 total. A one dollar bet on the Indians, if the Indians win, returns $2.45 (+$1.45). The Sox are pretty heavy favorites, those are not good odds, particularly not for two 96-win teams in a seventh game.

If that's wrong, someone please correct me, but that's my understanding of the money line.

[Hudson]

Thanks, SF, that makes sense.

(I notice some papers use a different schema. Something like "4 1/2 - 5 1/2" would be a typical entry, but again with no explanation. Maybe they don't want to explain because it would more overtly relate to illegal betting, but it's pretty obvious what the purpose is to begin with...)

[Hudson]

Just a sidenote to the betting thing: I would say the true odds are right down the middle, 50-50, with maybe only a slight advantage to the Sox being in Fenway. The game strikes me as a total roll of the dice (no, tired pun not intended) for both sides. The Vegas odds, as suggested above, may have more to do with who is more likely to bet (Sox fans) and on perceptions than on real probabilities...

A lot may depend on what happens early -- if one team can build a big lead -- or on the performance of just 1-2 players on each team. A single pitcher for either side could either have a career night, or blow it big time, even with the now widespread premise that everyone will be on short leashes. A booted ball, a bad call, a mental error, or a clutch hit may do it.

And given that both teams have shown themselves capable of exploding for 6-7 runs in a single inning, normal definitions of "comfortable lead" may not apply.

Of course I'm hoping for a 2004 Game 7 type of experience, with plenty of breathing room early. But we already had that last night, with the Indians being demoralized from the get-go and getting increasingly sloppy as things spiralled downward for them. I doubt Boston gets the luxury of yet another consecutive laugher, so bitten nails seem more likely.

[mike]

JD JD JD JD JD JD

[Jackie (SF)]

I also expect this one to be a nailbiter... I anticipate a fair amount of back and forth scoring.

It'd be amazing if the Sox could jump out to a quick lead and give Matsuzaka some breathing room, because he seems like he's really putting a ton of pressure on himself - and yes, he's previously pitched very well under pressure, but I think he had a lot more confidence in himself before he came to the MLB.

Anyway, I'm anticipating that this will be one for the ages, could really go either way. And I'm already ready to vomit. Oy.

[SF]

The Vegas odds, as suggested above, may have more to do with who is more likely to bet (Sox fans) and on perceptions than on real probabilities...

The Vegas odds are only geared to getting the right spread of bets for the two teams involved. That's it. They really have nothing to do with prognostication. If one of the linemakers in Vegas thinks the Sox are going to win by forty, they would never set the line like that, because they'd never get action on the Sox. They have to set the line so it is enticing enough to get people betting both ways -- the casino makes their money on the vig, so they can't have one team getting all the bets, it puts them too highly at risk.

Never look at odds for anything other than as an indication of what it will take to get people betting on both teams, it's more of a guess about the bettors than it is about the teams involved.

[SF]

Actually, I should qualify (and correct) something: if Vegas thinks a team is a mortal lock, they will set the odds at such a point to get people betting the longshot, they'll move the line until the risk/reward is high enough to move people away from the favorite. They aren't afraid of setting big spreads, which might be read as an implication of my previous comment.

[SF]

Here's an interesting article on line-setting - the linemakers have to take into account fan emotion/tendencies, so a balanced line is effectively impossible, though in an ideal world the guarantee of profit. The linemakers have to freelance a little based on the herd.

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/02/05/magazine/05sbgamble_92_94_.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

[SF]

Where is everyone? Twenty minutes til game time and nobody around? Is everyone arranging their rooms exactly as they were the prior two games?

Drinking?

[no sleep til brooklyn SF]

I'm nervous as heck-all. No drinking unless it's a celebration!

[Rob]

Hey sox fans - good luck to you guys - you've made it a series.

Time for the $103 million dollar question-mark to put up or shut up (though thankfully it doesn't hurt having, you know, Beckett in the pen!)

[Rob]

Ok as a history student - screw you Fox for trying to use Henry Clay to make you guys sound sophisticated and your coverage somehow "classy"

No really - Fuck you.

[attackgerbil]

> Drinking?

No, not drinking, just preparing for a night of drinking with a few or four adult beverages, with drinking soon to follow.

Good luck, Sox fans!

[SF]

Thanks, Gerb. I am trying to remember how I felt going into Game 7 in 2004, but I was at the end of the first week of first-time fatherhood, and I think I was delirious...

[Ed]

I feel like I need some tums right now

[Ed]

I was a wreck in 2004 game 7, i'm in a wreck now, for my health I hope we can break it open right away

[Paul SF]

I'm here. Just got back from ripping up the bathroom floor (and my right index finger) and taking the dog for a walk. Wouldn't miss this for anything!

[Rob]

Ed, Rob SF (not sure if he's here), SF - good luck guys.

Hope you don't mind but deep down (of course) I'm rooting for a loss, but at the very least I am rooting for a competitive game.

I realize that makes me a heartless bastard (how many years would a close game take off your life?) but not going to lie. In any case, I do wish your team a good game, and don't want this (or any) game to end in either a) an injury or b) a stupid call by the umpire.

That of course involves putting aside the awful strike-zone fun we've had this series.

[SF]

Thanks, Rob. Glad to have you here tonight. I think...

!!

[Paul SF]

I remember feeling very confident going into Game 7 in 2004. The Sox then scored early and often, so that confidence was well rewarded.

I feel less confident tonight, but I still would put our chances at better than 50-50.

[SF]

OK, Fox on, sound off. So far so good.

I can't listen to these guys.

[Pocono Sox]

I'm glad to see Coco is riding the pine again.

[Rob]

SF - Hey I wasn't going to say "rah rah Go Red Sox" - you'd accuse me of jinxing! :-P

[SF]

That ad is annoying: Thierry Henry plays for Barca, has been on that squad for a few months - couldn't they just recut it or something with a few new clips?

[SF]

God, start the game already...

[Paul SF]

I'm really really hoping for another game like last night's. Where the bats ultimately make the performance of the starter moot -- preferably in the first inning.

[Ed]

The Diceman Cometh...

[Ed]

I know Paul, it'd definitely get rid of the nervous butterflies

[SF]

QUALIFY, PAUL:

Where the RED SOX bats ultimately make the performance of the starter moot -- preferably in the first inning.

You've got to be more careful. PLEASE.

[no sleep til brooklyn SF]

omg, i'm terrified of the first pitch. If Sizemore hits a homerun, it's all over for DiceK.

[Rob]

Not surprised the Indians didn't put Travis "Wiff" Hafner up there for introductions...

[Ed]

Jake "The Snake" Westbrook?!?

[Paul SF]

Hehe, I stand corrected, SF.

[Rob]

Look at the bright side - you could've had Millar pitching!

[no sleep til brooklyn SF]

what the... Millar? Is this guy still jonesin' for the Sox or what?

[SF]

Anyone think it's odd that a Baltimore Oriole player (under contract) is throwing out the first pitch? I understand the symbolism and all, but what do the Orioles think of this?

[Ed]

Millar doing the lineup???? Very weird, but entertaining

Millar with the throw and the announcement of the lineup.

[Ed]

Is he really still under contract? Wow, strange indeed

[SF]

Ok, Rob, there's your Hafner reverse-jinx. Nice try. Not gonna stand for it.

[Paul SF]

Kevin Millar does a good lineup. Except for mispronouncing "Jacoby."

[SF]

I believe that Millar's option vested, so he's an Oriole for 2008.

[no sleep til brooklyn SF]

//but what do the Orioles think of this?//

It will take another 3 months before Angelos hears about it and make a decision on the matter.

[SF]

OK, nice first batter, Sizemore gets sawed off, one down.

[Rob]

Good first out - especially since they always highlight how the Indians really need Sizemore on base to get things going.

[Ed]

"Superman just broke his bat"... god I hate these guys

[Paul SF]

Home run swing. The results, not so much. Good start.

[academic-SF]

Millar doing the lineup freaks me out. "Daniel" Matsuzaka??!!

Go away, bad mojo, go away.

[Paul SF]

Buck and McCarver contradict Kennedy by saying Matsuzaka should use all his pitches.

They all miss the point: It's location.

[SF]

When did this "stand up on every two-strike count" thing start. First inning? Come on, I find that annoying, just a little.

[Rob SF]

Daniel is redneck for Dice.

[Ed]

Dice K throwing more strikes here... yet Indians also getting solid contact thus far...

[SF]

Cabrera grounds to Dusty. Two down.

[Paul SF]

Two exclamation points after "Wins!!" Why??

[Paul SF]

Drink every time you hear: "Two nations."

[Rob]

Bad to see that full count - that was an issue last time. But first two batters does suggest he's on his game.

[Ed]

Dice K is throwing pretty hard tonight, doesn't appear to be overthrowing

[SF]

Gah, full count.

[Rob]

Paul SF - Two nations? So glad I'm not really listening to what they're saying....

[SF]

K!!!!!

[Rob SF]

Hafner down swinging. Inning over.

[Ed]

Here we come "Snake"

[Paul SF]

DICE-K!!!

[SF]

Is there any professional athlete (or wrestler) whose first name is "Jake" whose nickname is not "Snake"?

[SoxFan]

1-2-3 inning for "Daniel" Matsuzaka!

[no sleep til brooklyn SF]

Pronk go bye-bye!

[Paul SF]

I don't care how much he's struggling, a K of Hafner is always a good sign.

Rob, the line, variations of which I've heard several times since the end of last night's game: "Two nations hanging on every pitch."

[SF]

What, exactly, makes Jake Westbrook "snake-like"? Or Jake Plummer? Is it the scaly skin? The molting? The long, forked tongue?

Idiots.

[Rob SF]

13 pitch inning from Dice.

[Rob]

Paul SF - Again so glad I'm not listening lol.

[Paul SF]

Perhaps their teammates don't like their continuously duplicitous nature?

[Rob SF]

Time to slap Westbrook about.

[Ed]

C.C., still eating...

[SF]

Yes, Dusty!!!

[Paul SF]

Pedroia!! Nice start!

[Rob SF]

Chickenhawk with the leadoff single.

[Ed]

DUSTIN!!!

[Ed]

Chickenhawk? I like that, where did you get that from?

[Rob SF]

I chose that nickname for him a few months back. Reminds me of the chickenhawk from Foghorn Leghorn.

[Ed]

the crowd is so damn loud, I love it

[SF]

YES! Youk with the seeing eye single to left. Off the bat, I feared a DP.

[Paul SF]

Youk!!

[no sleep til brooklyn SF]

Aw... Chickenhawk makes him sound like a pedophile. :( Since old men prowling for boys are called chickenhawks.

[Rob SF]

Youk!!

Papi headed to the plate.

[Ed]

looks like we still may get some good bounces here... make a statement in this inning boys!!!

[SF]

Do you bunt here?

Kidding.

[Rob SF]

NSTB...really did not know that. I guess I will go back to my standby..Geico Gecko.