In the Lead?

A little birdie says the Boston Red Sox have become the favorite in the Johan Santana trade sweepstakes.

The Twins would receive four players for the Twins' two-time Cy Young Award winner, including center fielder Coco Crisp, 28.

Others would be shortstop prospect Jed Lowry, 23; left-handed pitcher Jon Lester, 23; and right-handed pitcher Justin Masterson, 22.

Before a deal could be made, the Red Sox would have to have time to negotiate a contract extension with Santana, 28, who can become a free agent after next season and could have a market value as high as $150 million over six years. ...

The New York Yankees don't have the prospects available who the Twins figure have a reasonable chance to play in the major leagues by the end of 2008.

Let me say first I fully believe this is a Minnesota leak designed to get the Yankees to budge beyond simply giving up Hughes and Cabrera for Santana.

That said, this deal would make some sense for the Red Sox -- it leaves Buchholz, Ellsbury and Bowden untouched, and Lowrie is more expendable with the re-signing of Lowell (though I'd hate to see him go). I think this isn't bad, though losing two pitching prospects the caliber of Masterson/Lester makes me wince. The prospect of a Santana-Beckett-Matsuzaka-Schilling-Buchholz rotation in September does not.

HT: MLBTradeRumors

Comments

[sam-YF]

the thought of the sox getting Santana makes me want to vomit. It would be quite a coup if they get him and hang on to their top 2 prospects. If that were the case it would feel like the demands from the yankees were much higher. But as Paul said it could be a plant to get the yanks to up their bid. I dont like making moves based on what the sox do but in this case i think the yankees need to do everything to prevent him from going to Boston.

[YF]

That's interesting to me. Lester is probably a stronger prospect than IPK, which implies that the Twins want either Hughes or Joba. Do they consider Masterson further along/better than Alan Horne? Are the Yanks burned here because the Twins have an immediate need and they have so many of their blue chip prospects delayed by surgery (Sanchez, Betances, Brackman)? Also interesting that Masterson is in this mix over Bowden. Wonder what the Twins scouts know there.

[Paul SF]

The more I think about it, the more I wonder whether it's too good to be true. Acquiring Johan Santana without giving up two of the Big Three? Pretty dang good. Theo should be requesting the 72-hour window right now if the Twins really are OK with that package.

Masterson seems to have leapfrogged Bowden in the past year, for whatever reason. Not sure whether Masterson was that good, or what. SoxProspects.com has Masterson ranked third, Lowrie fourth, Bowden fifth. Looking at the numbers, Bowden struggled some after being promoted to AA early last season, though he didn't do much worse than Masterson, who is actually a year older. So you got me.

[Tyrel SF]

Lowrie is a pretty good prospect too. He could probably be an everyday 2B or 3B for the Twins, with reasonably solid production. Do the Yanks have any comparable ML-ready position player prospects?

A starting CF, starting IF, starting pitcher and a very good pitching prospect is a pretty well-rounded package. Dear Lord, let this be true.

[AndrewYF]

The writer spelled Lowrie's name wrong. Plus, the last sentence in the article makes absolutely no sense. If this is the leading deal, Cashman must only be offering Kennedy and Cabrera, and not even mentioning Jackson, Tabata or Horne. This smells strongly of a guy wanting to grab some attention, which I guess he has.

A little birdie? Does he talk to his racket too?

[Paul SF]

The man is a sportswriter for a major metropolitan daily, Andrew. Regardless of his writing style, it seems silly to question whether he actually received the info. The question is who gave it to him, how accurate is it, and what were the motivations?

It's silly to question if he made up the info? He mentions a 'little birdie'. Not even a standard "unnamed Minnesota executive who has knowledge of the situation". Why should this guy suddenly be trusted beyond question? Because he writes for a paper?

I must say, if this is the current leading offer, Hughes and/or Tabata/Jackson must not even be on the table.

[DS-YF]

If true, this would be huge for the Sox. They would not be giving up much. Lester is a great guy, but not destined to be a top flight starter. Crisp is not very productive with the bat. Prospects are a crap shoot.

I seem to remember the D-Backs asking a lot less for Schilling from the Sox then they were from the Yankees too.

[dc]

i heard the same "leak" paul, but i'm not sure it was from the same source...you have a good point: could be the twins are leaking this stuff to up the ante...a couple of days ago i thought folks generally considered that the yanks were a slight front-runner...but then again, i thought the yanks had more of an interest in torii hunter, and would certainly sign him to pave the way for trading melky...shows you what i know...interesting how these competitions to acquire a player twist and turn, and develop into a real "neck and neck" horse race...oh well, wherever he winds up it's meant to be i guess, and the loser will have to be happy with keeping their future stars in the family and $125m in their pocket...not such a bad alternative...him going to the red sox worries me that the gap between our teams widens, but that's how it goes i guess...the yanks will have to assess the validity of such rumors [i don't think baseball requires clubs to be honest about this stuff], and make the appropriate counter-play...so they either put up or shutup...

[Paul SF]

Well, that was because Colangelo hated the Yankees with a passion, iirc.

I tend to give people who make a living at newspapers some benefit of the doubt, Andrew, yes. They tend to care deeply about getting it right, not least because getting it wrong would cost them their jobs.

Also, I presume it's a column or blog of some sort, hence the informal writing style. It's poorly sourced info, yes, but that doesn't mean it's not info.

Why not talk about whether the information he received is accurate? That seems to accomplish the same thing without slamming a guy just because he's delivering you bad news.

[AndrewYF]

This is the same newspaper that published the article saying that the Twins should trade Carlos Silva to the Red Sox. That was an opinion piece, but I think we can get a good read on the quality of this Minnesota press.

[Paul SF]

Funny you mention the horse race, dc, because I was in the middle of writing a post about the Sox and Yanks apparently being the only serious bidders for Santana when MLBTR linked to the Walters piece.

[Paul SF]

Just because one guy's a hack doesn't mean everyone who works at the paper or in the same metropolitan area are hacks, Andrew. Because Murray Chass talks out of his ass, does that mean Tyler Kepner or Jack Curry can't be trusted either?

[LocklandSF]

I'm highly skeptical of this for one reason only, I jumped for joy. To good to be true for sure.

[dc]

by the way, we aren't going to give this minn writer any more cred than we gave the goof that sf posted about yesterday...are we?...no offense to our journalist-regulars, but most of these guys are about 1 step up from used car salesmen on the food chain, and that can slip on any given day...ain't no pulitzers in most of the stuff that gets quoted/referenced around here...

[AndrewYF]

I tend to give people who make a living at newspapers some benefit of the doubt, Andrew, yes. They tend to care deeply about getting it right, not least because getting it wrong would cost them their jobs.

Oh, please. Made-up baseball rumors happen all the time. Pete Abraham has been wrong on almost every single prediction. Remember when he quoted Rivera's 'friend' as saying Mo considers the Yankees only one of 30 teams? Or what about the reports flying around that Rivera was 'angry' and 'definitely wanted a fourth year'. Those were abjectly wrong, but I don't think people lost their jobs over it.

It's info, but it doesn't sound very plausible. Add in to the fact that the writer actually wrote the last sentence, which is absolutely wrong, and I think you can see why I'm more than a little skeptical.

[Paul SF]

Shooting the messenger is ugly business, dc. Problem is, you never have enough ammo for all the people telling you stuff you don't want to hear.

[Nick-YF]

I've had the sense, this whole time, that the Yanks will end up with Johan when all is said and done. This is not necessarily based on wishful thinking, but more the general needs of the Yanks and the Sox and the teams' respective roster construction styles. I have an easier time, for instance, seeing the Yanks pony up the money and prospects than I do seeing the Red Sox do the same thing. Also, there is the Johan NTC, and the random implications I've read from a couple of reporters here and there (read No Maas's interview today) that Johan wants to play in New York. So like Paul, I think this story is most likely intended to boost the price up on the Yanks. As YF and others surmise, the offer suggest the Twins are trying to get Hughes or Joba, and it would see the Yanks have held strong so far. I'm not a poker player but I'd guess this is a strong bluff. I wonder if the Yanks will call them on it.

[Nick-YF]

"ain't no pulitzers in most of the stuff that gets quoted/referenced around here..."

dc, are you saying we at YFSF don't write Pulitzer quality stuff!?

[Mike YF]

That's close though, no? What if, with competition, the offer gets upped to Ellsbury, Lester, Lowrie, Masterson. That seems fair and the Sox lose nothing they need except pitching depth.

Meanwhile, could the Yanks beat that offer with Hughes, Melky, and Horne? Seems like they'd have to include Kennedy or Jackson.

Glad I'm not the one making these decisions.

[sam-YF]

i find it pretty hard to believe that this guy started studying the sox farm system and completely made up this trade on his own. He must have gotten the info from some source to feel it was worthy to put into print. The validity of the info is what should be in question not the guy who wrote it. The way trades rumors work to me is that you can start trusting something a little more when it comes from multiple sources ideally at least one from a national reporter. Those are the ones that typically have real traction.

[Max (SF)]

While I would love this trade to actually happen (though I doubt it will), I have a general question about the Sox starting rotation. With 6 starting pitchers right now (and presumably 6 even with this trade), has there been more discussion about who goes to the bullpen or is traded away? The 6-man rotation seems to be have been ruled out. In most of the starting rotation scenarios, Wakefield seems to be the odd man out. Thoughts?

[Ben K.]

Keep in mind: This is the same paper that printed this laughable excuse for an article. I'm putting approximately zero stock in it.

[AndrewYF]

Actually, I agree with you Sam. I rescind my 'this guy made the article up', he most likely doesn't have enough baseball acumen for that.

After a little more thought, what I take from this is that Cashman is holding hard at some package like Kennedy, Cabrera and Horne, or maybe even less than that, and the Twins directed their staff to put out anonymous rumors to up the Yankees offer.

[Paul SF]

Again, Ben, if that's the standard, then the NYT's sports section is complete crap because Murray Chass writes for it.

Max, I've wondered that, too. Wakefield has said he's too old for the bullpen inconsistency, and the Sox seem to agree. With him and the two kids, you could alternate them in the fourth and fifth spots, but if Lester's gone and Santana's in his place, you can't do that anymore. If it's Wakefield vs. Buchholz for spot No. 5, it's gotta be Buchholz...

[Paul SF]

After a little more thought, what I take from this is that Cashman is holding hard at some package like Kennedy, Cabrera and Horne, or maybe even less than that, and the Twins directed their staff to put out anonymous rumors to up the Yankees offer.

I completely agree, Andrew.

I figure this is a real offer the Sox made, the Twins said, "We'll get back to you," decided they didn't really like it, but thought the Yanks could top it, so they leaked the offer in hopes of getting more.

The Twins are not in a position of strength. This may indeed be the best offer they've received. I doubt it'll be the best offer they get, though.

[dc]

aw come on paul, in my first post on this i took the philosophical view...que sera sera, you know?...i really don't care where santana winds up although it does tilt the balance of power even more in the sox favor, i'll stop short of saying it guarantees you another ws...too many other variables and flukes, like injuries and such, oddities like the rockies, marlins, twins every 15 years, that kind of thing...i can't do anything about the yanks' apparently insufficient offer, so i won't lose any sleep over it...i "shoot" the messenger [never literally, you'll be happy to hear] when the message and/or the messenger is questionable, not because it's something i don't want to hear...my track record on that around here is rock-solid...i didn't shoot this guy, i merely questioned his cred, motives, sourcing, "facts", and put the proper perspective on his contibution to this discussion...i don't mean to offend all journalists, just most of them...i'm skeptical of everything i read until it becomes fact...

[Nick-YF]

I think this guy Walters was one of the journalists who reported the Garza-Young rumor which actually happened. At least, that's what MBLTR says. Not sure why his credibility is in question because of a colleague's silliness. That's like blaming Paul for my poor unintelligent stuff.

[YF]

Worth checking out River Ave Blues for some interesting takes on this from a NY perspective.

[Hudson]

Gee, I remember a "major metropolitan newspaper" publishing a definitive account of how the Iraqis had W.M.D., based on information from a credible source codenamed "Curveball."

Do I trust the MSM on politics or sports? Not so much.

[Mike YF]

I don't see why this has to be a crock. It could well represent the Sox offer. It doesn't mean the Twins will take it, just what the Sox have offered. If so, it's a strong opening bid. If they're serious they'll increase it. That's the pressure on the Yanks - calling that hand.

I don't think the Sox are serious - less because of the players (even including Ellsbury instead of Crisp isn't a huge leap) than because of the cash. It completely changes their salary dynamics for Beckett and Papi and makes it hard to sign a bat to replace Manny. But it wouldn't surprise me if they pull the trigger by including Ellsbury.

Tough call for the Yankee front office - stick to the offer and wait it out or start throwing more names in.

[Nick-YF]

"Tough call for the Yankee front office - stick to the offer and wait it out or start throwing more names in."

Indeed, Mike. Spot on.

[Hudson]

P.S. Good Newsday opinion column on Santana, saying the Yankees must win this game of "keepaway":

http://www.newsday.com/sports/baseball/yankees/ny-spwally1129,0,5104068.column

[dc]

"dc, are you saying we at YFSF don't write Pulitzer quality stuff!?"

heck no nick...in fact, some of the best writing i see is done right here...that's why i keep coming back...i don't want to mention names, but there isn't one of you guys i don't look forward to reading...some of it is a little too cerebral and stuffy at times, but that just adds another flavor...the varying styles keeps it interesting...actually, i will name a name...paul will be shocked by this comment, and not to slight you other guys, but i admire his tireless attention to detail and devotion to the facts...we sometimes rub each other the wrong way, but neither one of us means any harm, and i'm sure we could enjoy a beer together someday if the opportunity presented itself...i could learn a lot from him about how to research and analyze data...

[Nick-YF]

"If Santana goes to Boston, the Yankees go to second place in the American League East for the rest of George Steinbrenner's life, and maybe Hank Steinbrenner's, too. It's as simple as that."

Man, is he predicting a sudden heart attack for Hank. A bit of hyperbole there. But, for once, I do see Wally Matthews' point, and I've wondered a bit about how much George's health plays into the immediate and long-term plans of the club. It's not ridiculous to think that Hank and Hal, for very sentimental reasons, might be desperate to go for the win now for their dad.

[sam-YF]

Does anyone here actually think that the Twins first year GM could take this offer? How would he explain to the fan base that he wasnt able to pry away at least 1 of his trading partners best chips for the "best pitcher on the planet"? This in the context of losing Hunter already this season seems a bit much. I think he'd be more willing to wait until the season if this was the best he was offered.

[Paul SF]

Aw shucks, dc. Now I'm blushing.

River Ave Blues basically is saying the same stuff as we've heard here -- either the info is false, the Yanks' offer is minimalist, or other teams are out to screw the Yankees -- oh yeah, or all the Sox' prospects are crap and all the Yanks' prospects' pee turns to gold the minute it interacts with the earth's atmosphere.

[Paul SF]

Meant to add the winky-face to my last sentence.

all the Sox' prospects are crap and all the Yanks' prospects' pee turns to gold the minute it interacts with the earth's atmosphere. ;-)

[IronHorse (yf)]

Good one Hudson.

If the Sox actually pulled this off, I would, for the first time, feel they are unequivocally better than the Yankees and likely to be so for at least a couple years. Um...I'd rather not feel that way.

[Brad]

Here is my 'bit of Pulitzer quality stuff for the moment:

This isn't true, and there is no way that it could be unless monkeys took over the GM office for the Twins. That being said, I do think the Sox are neck-deep in this transaction and are going to what it takes to get it done, as they should.
That being said - Get Johan. Trade Manny. That ends my wish list.

[Paul SF]

I'm half with ya, Brad. :-)

[YF]

Also worth a read over at the Banter, Cliff Corcoran's convo with Steve Goldman. Apparently the Yanks are talking to KC about David DeJesus, as a potential Melky replacement.

[Mike YF]

That's the point, Sam. It's not an offer the Twins would take, but it's close. It addresses all of their needs, but none very well. Swap in Ellsbury and it gets that much closer.

[Mike YF]

As a Yankee fan, Brad, I'll take that swap. Without Manny, Papi's protection is Lowell. Sounds good to me.

[John - YF]

YF, I would love to see that. DeJesus is a former Rutgers product and a pretty solid player. I for one would be happy if that happened.

As for the Sox getting Johan, if it happens 2008 will be a tough season to watch as a Yankee fan. That's an amazing rotation.

http://www.listin.com.do/app/article.aspx?id=36065

This article said that Valverde was demanding 4 years, $60 million.

http://www.azcentral.com/sports/diamondbacks/articles/1129dbacksnb1129.html

This article says his agent flatly denied those reports.

Will that reporter who published the first report be fired?

Just a point, this stuff happens ALL THE TIME in baseball journalism. It's a part of the job. Taking anything for gospel, or even real information, when it includes 'unnamed sources' is a really bad idea.

[AndrewYF]

Sorry, that was me.

And heck, that article even claimed to quote Valverde himself.

[dc]

"...other teams are out to screw the Yankees -- oh yeah, or all the Sox' prospects are crap and all the Yanks' prospects' pee turns to gold the minute it interacts with the earth's atmosphere..."

now that's pulitzer quality stuff paul...obviously well-sourced and researched, factual, and well written...

[Mike YF]

By the way, call me not concerned about that Sox rotation. In getting it they will have put three below average bats into the starting lineup (Coco, Varitek, Lugo) with no possible upgrades on the way. The offense is going to be heavily dependent on Lowell maintaining his 2007 form with Papi and Manny putting up huge numbers.

I like the Yankee chances of scoring more runs than the Sox in close games. Even at Beckett's best last year, he didn't exactly shut down the Yanks.

[sam-YF]

Um actually the yankees pee does turn to gold when reacts with the atmosphere. You think we are paying A-Rod, et al with gate revenue?

[Ben K.]

oh yeah, or all the Sox' prospects are crap and all the Yanks' prospects' pee turns to gold the minute it interacts with the earth's atmosphere.

Nah, nah. That's not what we're saying at all. We'll readily admit that fans of teams tend to overvalue their own prospects, but I'd like to think that the three of us writing are keeping a level head about it. A lot of comments take that stance, but I think a Lowrie/Lester deal is a pretty high price to pay for Santana.

My beef is with the inclusion of Coco Crisp. Considering what the Twins a looking for - a low-cost center fielder under their control for the next few seasons - he doesn't really fit the bill.

Your Murray Chass point is a good one, but The Times doesn't bargain in unsourced rumors offered by "a little birdie" quite as frequently as The Pioneer Press has done over the last few days.

[Mike YF]

Ben, again, that's why the Twins won't take it. Keep in mind that the reason we hear about these offers is because they haven't been accepted. In order for the Sox to come much closer they'll need to include Ellsbury. I agree with others - this offer was released to get the Yankees to up their package. I actually take it as a good sign they're holding firm. Kennedy, Melky, Horne > Lester, Crisp, Lowrie, and Masterson but it's close.

[John - YF]

Beckett - Santana - Matsuzaka - Schilling and Buchholz doesn't concern you? When are (Some) Yankee fans going to acknowledge the fact that in order to win we need to outpitch teams, not outslug them.

As for Lowell, what evidence do we have that he can't put up numbers that resemble last seasons output?

Also didn't they put those same exact "below average bats" in their everyday lineup last season and didn't they win the WS?

[Brad]

like the Yankee chances of scoring more runs than the Sox in close games..

How has that worked out so far? This whole scoring runs is meaningless if you run into Johan and Beckett in the playoffs. Scoring runs means squat if you aren't able to do it against good pitching in the playoffs. I'll trade hitting for good pitching and defense every day of the week, as would most smart baseball managers. Varitek, Lugo, Crisp, and whoever else you consider to be terrible with the bat are just fine with me. They did just win the world series. I could care less if the Yankees score a thousand or five thousand runs. As long as they're trotting Wang, Mussina, and two rookies to the bump in October, I won't worry too much.

[Brad]

Beckett - Santana - Matsuzaka - Schilling and Buchholz doesn't concern you?...

Yeah, that's just a dumb statement. But then again, you're not batting, so they shouldn't concern you at all.

[Brad]

Damn you, John!
I wait for the meatballs and you clear the bases first.

[John - YF]

"This whole scoring runs is meaningless if you run into Johan and Beckett in the playoffs."

...Or Paul Byrd, Kenny Rogers or Jake Westbrook.

I feel like I am running my head into a wall trying to preach the need for an ACE.

[Brad]

I like the Yankee chances of scoring more runs than the Sox in close games...

Good, they're probably really, really going to need them. You know, to keep up.

[Brad]

Nice, John. True enough. You forgot CC!!

[John - YF]

That was my attempt at humor Brad, LOL.

[Brad]

yeah, I laughed. Because it's true. It's funny. :)

[Mike YF]

When we look at the facts:

2007 vs Yankees

Beckett: 4 GS 2-1 26.2 IP 4.39 ERA
Johan: 1 G, 7 IP, 2 ER, 2 BB, 5 K
Dice-K: 4 GS 2-1 25 IP 6.12 ERA
Schilling: 5 GS 0-3 32.2 IP 5.51 ERA
Wakefield: 3 GS 0-3 14 IP 10.93 ERA
Buchholz - Didn't pitch

That doesn't look very scary. :)

They'll have a very good team - again. But to acquire Johan, they'll have to sacrifice offense, and probably let Manny go after 2008. Sorry, but it's hard to score runs with only 5-6 above average bats, and assuming Lowell will continue to produce (see his BABIP and home/road split) while Drew will bounce back.

I look forward to the competition, and I don't think anything is lost if the Sox acquire Johan. It has a significant cost for them. I just hope the Yankee front office sees it my way. Sure, trade for Johan. Just don't go overboard in the process in try to slay some non-existent beast.

[SF]

This article strikes me as purely speculative. The sourcing is way too vague.

[John - YF]

Now can you post their playoff numbers Mike? The Yankees don't seem to have an issue getting to the playoffs. Their issue is getting OUT OF THE 1ST ROUND. So yes during the regular season the Yankees do stand a shot to put up similar numbers to the Sox. But come playoff time when you are trying to reach your ultimate goal and you have to face BECKETT, JOHAN and DAISUKE in games 1-3 and you throw out WANG, AP and JOBA let me know if it then worries you.

[Mike YF]

Of course, acquire Johan and give him 20 million/year and Beckett wants the same. I would love to see the Sox give two pitchers with a lot of mileage 40 million/year and trading away the farm in the process.

And you want that ace, John? If you've been paying attention, the recent Yankee drafting philosophy will produce one sooner or later. Me, I like their chances. That's a truer path than the Weaver, Vazquez, Brown, Unit one. Many less dollars and no trading four prospects in the process.

[SF]

whether this report is even remotely accurate, how is the Sox acquiring Santana at almost no cost to their current (championship) roster not a concerning scenario for some Yankee fans? If the situation ends up reversed (the Yanks getting Johan for almost no current roster talent) I will certainly acknowledge that this concerns me.

[Brad]

Man, it's just too bad for you they don't play the Yankees 162 times a year. If that rotation isn't formidable, while you think the Yankee one is, I think this discussion is over because you're just pusing buttons and not talking with any common sense.

[Mike YF]

They didn't face the Yanks in the playoffs, John, and I really wish they had. And no, facing them in the playoffs doesn't bother me either. The Yanks have faced Johan twice already and beaten his team both times? Why? They had no offense. And he didn't exactly shut them down either - he's had mixed results there.

[Brad]

And you want that ace, John? If you've been paying attention, the recent Yankee drafting philosophy will produce one sooner or later.

Really, who? Who has shown that potential? Who has shown the potential to be the next Johan? When? One game in Texas followed up by? Where did this take place?
Mike, really bro. If you're not worried about the Red Sox getting Johan because you think that Beckett and Johan are pitchers that should be feared by that big, bad, first round exiting NY offense, I don't know how to even formulate a response to it statistically. Or coherently. It would be arguing babble with more babble. Pointless. If you really think that, I promise that you're the only one. Well, maybe DC is with you:)
Kidding, dc.

[Mike YF]

I'm the one pushing buttons? I'm the only one to offer any stats to back up my claims.

I have no doubt the Sox will be very good next year, with or without Santana.

I feel the same about my team.

See, I remember previously when the Yankees acquiring an "ace" was supposed to put them over the top. It didn't happen. I'd much rather they stick to their plan than trade a huge package for one players. I feel very good that one of Joba, Hughes, or Kennedy will be pitching like an ace next October. Indeed, Hughes already did this past October.

[John - YF]

"If you've been paying attention, the recent Yankee drafting philosophy will produce one sooner or later."

Sooner or later? Since when are we the KC Royals? I am not saying sacrifice what we have built up completely, just use some of the pieces to get that ACE. And please MIKE PLEASE stop using Weaver, Unit, Brown and Vazquez as examples. Brown and Unit WERE aces at one point, but were well past their prime. Vazquez and Weaver were NEVER considered to be aces.

[Mike YF]

All I've shown, John, is that the Yankees have had recent success against that big bad (and hypothetical) Boston rotation. What have you shown besides your irrational fears?

[Brad]

Just don't go overboard in the process in try to slay some non-existent beast.

Or, the world series champs who just gave away that "below average CF" and prospects for the best pitcher in baseball (assuming this has legs, which I don't think it does), and in any case, they still haven't given away anything that contributed heavily all year less Coco, who according to you, isn't much to sneeze at anyhow.

Non-existent beast indeed. Is your television broken or something?

Mike, the problem wasn't with the philosophy, it was with the supposed 'ace'. Granted they got pretty unlucky with Weaver and Vazquez, who projected to be dominant (Vazquez especially, I remember being particularly excited with his addition), and they got Johnson exactly one year too late (imagine if they had actually gotten him in the middle of 2004).

The Yankees would be vastly improved with an 'ace'. But you're correct, they haven't had one since 2003 and have still been excellent. They can still win with or without Johan. But they can win much, much easier with him.

[Mike YF]

Really John? Go back and look at Vazquez's year before they acquired him. He sure looked ace-like. Same deal with Unit. And Brown. And Clemens 2.0 too.

This "win now" philosophy you're espousing, without any concern of the future, is exactly what got the Yankees in this mess. It's always instructive to see a fan like you. I know what I could potentially become.

[John - YF]

"See, I remember previously when the Yankees acquiring an "ace" was supposed to put them over the top."

Two Things:

#1 If the Yankees do get Santana, they aren't put over the top. They still don't have the complete pitching that the Indians, Angels and Sox have. If anything getting Santana pulls them near even, not over the top.

#2 Please tell me when the Yankees brought in an ACE? By ACE I mean a 29 year old (not 38-42)with amazing stuff, many years left to offer and 2 Cy Youngs?

[sam-YF]

Mike the red sox face more than the yankees through out the course of the year. Even if the yankees have success against the Boston staff they are still gonna succeed against the other teams the play all year. Their staff carried them to victory this year and is in a place to do the same next year, adding Santana to that would be a huge boost.

[Brad]

"ace" was supposed to put them over the top

Yeah, but the difference is, the Yankees haven't added the top performer in the game, under thirty, and a lefty. They added old, retreaded, grumpy men looking for big paychecks. Which they obliged.
Also, let me get this staight, just so I know..
The Yankees have spent close to a half a billion dollars in the past month, but you're suggesting that they "wait" and see what happens in the pitching department? When 66% of that half a billion is closing in on forty, how long are you expecting them to wait for that "ace" to show himself? How patient do you think they are going to be? If it was patience they were woring towards, they would never have signed Mo and Posada. They would have went young, and had patience all around.
They want it now. Their checkbook has shown us that in the last month.

[Mike YF]

Brad, so you're going to admit this trade "has no legs" but then pretend that it does?

Please. If the Sox want Santana, they will include Ellsbury. There is no doubt in my mind. Question is: Will they bite? I don't think they will.

Anon -

I'm not saying they shouldn't get Johan. Just that they should hold firm at Kennedy - Melky - Horne. Let's see another team top that cause this "reported" Sox package doesn't.

[AndrewYF]

John - if the Yankees get Johan, and presuming Pettitte returns, how are they not over the top? Their rotation would be Santana, Wang, Pettitte, Hughes/Kennedy (depending on which one goes), Chamberlain. That's decidedly better than the Sox rotation, and is at the least right in step with the Angels'.

[Brad]

damn you, Trisk. I give up. You talk.

[John - YF]

"This "win now" philosophy you're espousing"

It's not a "win now" philosophy. We are the New York Yankees, not the KC Royals. I love baseball and the Yankees, win or lose, but when you have a chance to get a guy like Santana you take it. I am not saying we should empty the entire farm system for one guy, but a reasonable trade of say Hughes, Cabrera and a ML'r won't worry me one bit. You are an extremist and always have been, you take what people say and spin your own extreme twist into it.

As for providing details, I have a 2 week old and a 2 year old tugging on my sides, so please excuse me if I don't go digging into Baseball Reference. com for facts right now. I will just let my knowledge of the game do the talking for now.

[Mike YF]

You're moving the goal posts, John and Brad. The fact is, Vazquez, Brown, and Unit were all producing like aces when the Yanks brought them in.

Now, John, you're bringing up criteria that Beckett doesn't even match (nor Pedro when he was acquired).

The Yankees have pitching depth. By all means trade some of it. You, John (and I'm sure Brad too) just want them to empty the farm in the process to do whatever it takes. No thanks.

[Brad]

Brad, so you're going to admit this trade "has no legs" but then pretend that it does?

Yes. I'm arguing the hypothetical. Under the assumption that this trade has legs, I stand by what I say. If not, I still think that you hypothetically saying (and bogus versus Yankee stats) you're not worried about it happening because you're "not concerned".
It's kind of like this hypothetical "philosophy" of waiting for a winning team and having patience through the draft. Or Hughes showing he's an ace. Or Chamberlain not being in the bullpen. Or losing Ellsbury would hurt the Sox. Or not scoring the most runs results in being not in contention.
It's all hypothetical.

[John - YF]

I disagree Andrew. I think with Johan the Yankees pull even with the Sox. Just look at it this way:

Beckett = Johan (more or less)

Daisuke = AP (Again, more or less #'s wise. You would have to guess in year #2 Daisuke would improve)

Schilling Vs. Hughes/Joba/Kennedy - I would give the advantage to Schilling. How much would we expect from any of those three in their first FULL season of pitching in the bigs. If I was a gambling man I would say Schilling finishes with better #'s provided he is healthy.

#4 and #5 in both would be a near wash. That's why I would say they aren't over the top, they are near even with the addition of Johan.

[Brad]

You're moving the goal posts..

Fact aren't goalposts. Roger this year? Brown? Unit?
Nobody could have ever predicted that the Unit or Brown wouldn't be able to maintain in the AL East.
Oh, wait. We all did!! Go back and read the threads.

[Mike YF]

Now, you're going to call me names. What are you, twelve?

Okay, so the difference between our viewpoints is:

a) Hughes - Melky +

b) Kennedy - Melky +

What's your problem then, exactly? Oh, right, you're worried about the Sox having an unbeatable rotation. Oooooooh, quelle horreur!

Okay - suppose the Sox offer Lester, Ellsbury, Lowrie, and Masterson.

What do you do then? Cause Hughes - Melky isn't enough.

[aaron]

I have a question I don't think anyone has posed...can the Sox afford Santana? Aren't they already stretched pretty far on payroll? I didn't think the Sox were as free-wheeling with salary as the Yankees. I admittedly don't pay much attention to the Sox so maybe you guys have some thoughts?

$25 million a year over 7 years seems to be the thought for Santana...

[John - YF]

"I am not saying we should empty the entire farm system for one guy, but a reasonable trade of say Hughes, Cabrera and a ML'r won't worry me one bit." - John

"The Yankees have pitching depth. By all means trade some of it. You, John (and I'm sure Brad too) just want them to empty the farm in the process to do whatever it takes. No thanks." - (Extreme) Mike YF

Please show me where Brad or myself ever said EMPTY THE FARM SYSTEM? Like I said you come here to start sh*t storms and twist peoples words.

"Now, John, you're bringing up criteria that Beckett doesn't even match (nor Pedro when he was acquired)."

I don't even know what the means or where I said that.

[AndrewYF]

John, you completely forgot about Wang. What kind of Yankee fan are you???

Beckett roughly = Santana. Fine.

But Wang > Dice-K.

Pettitte = Schilling, that's being generous to Schilling, considering he hasn't pitched a full season in how long.

Then you get to Wakefield/Lester/Buchholz. Compare it to Chamberlain/(Kennedy/Hughes), and I think the Yankees come out on top there.

So even without Wang, adding Johan pulls the Yankees even.

[sam-YF]

Mike
Randy Johnson was 41 when they got him, Kevin Brown 38. Johan Santana is gonna be 29 next season. Javier Vazquez may have been young but he was NOT Johan Santana.

If you cant see the difference between these pitchers and Johan this conversation should end right now because there is no point.

[AndrewYF]

Of course, I meant even without Pettitte, Johan pulls the Yankees roughly even.

Add into the fact that the Yankees will probably have the best offense in the majors again next season, and that puts them 'over the top'.

[John - YF]

"Now, you're going to call me names. What are you, twelve?" Mike-YF

"You are an extremist and always have been, you take what people say and spin your own extreme twist into it." - John

Please tell me where I called you names? I only pointed out a fact.

[Brad]

But Wang > Dice-K.

yeah, i happen to think that this turns around this year. Still, I think I'll take Dice in the playoffs! ha!
Man, that memory makes me freaking smile ear to ear.

[John - YF]

Sorry, my dislike for Wang must be showing through Andrew. I am trying to type and think with a newborn in my arms, you have my apologies. But I still stand by the fact that they pull even, not ahead.

[Brad]

Man, even YF's are ganging up on your insanity.

[Brad]

Trisk, you have every right to dislike Wang. Or love him. Or hate him. Or love him. It kind of depends on the day and if the balls finds the gloves! ha.

[Mike YF]

They can afford him, aaron. But not Manny and him.

Sam - of course I see the difference. And look what they gave up for Vazquez - a decent 1B (who they've struggled to replace) and a decent OF (who they've paid alot of dough to replace). Now we're talking about true pitching phenoms that they could trade.

John - our messages passed in the ether. Try this one:

Okay - suppose the Sox offer Lester, Ellsbury, Lowrie, and Masterson.

What do you do then? Cause Hughes - Melky isn't enough.

[Brad]

Okay - suppose the Sox offer Lester, Ellsbury, Lowrie, and Masterson.

The beautiful thing here is this: The Red Sox don't have a need for any of these guys right now. Of all of these positions, the Red Sox are locked up for at least a few more drafts and years.
It's beautiful, really. The Yankees could match it, but they would be really hurting the big league club in the process.
The Red Sox wont.

[Mike YF]

Ah, all these smart(ass) people and not one with a decent answer to a difficult question.

Brad - You love Santana so much. Do you trade Lester, Ellsbury, Lowrie, and Masterson for him?