YFSF

The End Is Nigh

Or not. Jon Heyman is reporting:

Reluctantly, the Yankees seem prepared to include young right-hander Phil Hughes in a three-player package for baseball's best pitcher. Outfielder Melky Cabrera and an undetermined player would also be included in the trade.

If the Yankees ultimately surrender Hughes, league sources indicate they have a strong chance to complete a trade for Santana.

Duh.

Did anyone expect the Yanks not to include Hughes? For that matter, is "the Yankees seem prepared" to offer Hughes that much different than "the Yankees are likely" to offer Hughes, which we've heard ad nauseum for two days? Both phrases mean the same thing: The Yankees have not yet offered Hughes, but probably will soon. Forgive me if I'm underwhelmed by this new information.

One thing that troubles me:

The Boston Red Sox are having similar debates in their own front office over two players the Twins have requested from them -- outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury and pitcher Clay Buchholz. But it appears that the Red Sox are unlikely to surrender either Ellsbury or Buchholz, two highly-coveted players.

The Red Sox are either biding their time and playing close to the vest, or have overvalued Jacoby Ellsbury to a criminal extent. His value over Crisp is not close to worth Santana's value over Lester -- never mind the value of Santana not being on the Yankees.

Pitchers Not Named Johan

First, Jon Heyman reports that the A's have contacted teams, including the Yanks and Sox, about Danny Haren. No surprise there, but at least it's now more official. In addition, word out of Baltimore is that Erik Bedard may become available as well this winter, as contract extension talks between the O's and him have stalled. The Yanks are rumored to be kicking the tires, while there is no mention of the Sox.

My instant analysis is that this helps the Yanks and Sox in their negotiations with the Twins. Hey, if we lose out on Santana, there are always these guys to go after.

Hat tip to mlbtraderumors for the Bedard story.

YFSF: Where the 'SF' Stands for 'Santana Fans'

We do love the Hot Stove. Last December it was Daisuke Matsuzaka; this almost-December it's Johan Santana. In both cases, multiple reports have claimed the Red Sox to be in the lead. In both cases, we have been skeptical.

Whatever happens,* the fun part is undoubtedly the speculation, the rumors, the thrill of possibly getting the Big Fish of the offseason. It's not as fun as the game itself, but it'll do in a pinch.

In these overnight hours, let's recap just who's offering what, according to whom:

• First, Jon Heyman on Wednesday said the Yankees had the edge because they seemed more likely to offer either Ian Kennedy or Phil Hughes with Melky Cabrera, plus another prospect or two. The Sox, refusing to give up more than one of their Big Three, were refusing to include Jacoby Ellsbury in a package that otherwise included Jon Lester.
• Thursday morning, however, the St. Paul Pioneer Press reported the Sox were front-runners with an offer of Coco Crisp, Lester, Jed Lowrie and Justin Masterson, and saying the Yankees did not have enough (offer enough?) 2008-ready prospects to do a deal.
• Later, Buster Olney partially confirmed that report, replacing Masterson with Michael Bowden, but adding the fourth player was "in flux."
• Heyman returned Thursday afternoon, still giving the Yanks the edge, noting the Twins were dead-set on getting Ellsbury from Boston, and that Boston was dead-set against including him.
• Nick Cafardo jumped in Thursday night to essentially confirm Olney's report that the Sox preferred to lose Bowden over Masterson, adding that Lowrie (if the Charlie Walter's and Olney's sources were correct) is Boston's attempt to make up for not including Ellsbury.
• Cafardo also threw in an interesting name to the Yankee-Twins talks: Negotiations had been centering on Cabrera and Robinson Cano, Cafardo said. No mention of any of the Big Three. Cafardo's blog post seemed to indicate the Red Sox were both further along and better positioned to get the deal done -- to the point that he checked with Santana's agent (or people who know him) to see whether negotiations with him had begun.
• Not so fast, though. Later Thursday night, Jack Curry entered the fray to definitively state the Yankees had offered Kennedy, Cabrera and a prospect, which Curry thinks is Jose Tabata. The Yankees, similarly to the Red Sox, said they did not want to trade either of the other two if they were giving up one -- but only Joba Chamberlain was declared "untouchable." The Twins, of course, insist that Hughes be part of the deal, just as they seem to insist Ellsbury be part of a deal with Boston.
• Curry said the Yankees think if they include Hughes, the deal would get done. Similarly, everyone is indicating if the Sox add Ellsbury (presumably replacing Crisp and Lowrie), that deal would get done.

So here's what we have from all that:

• Sox: Coco Crisp, Jon Lester, Jed Lowrie, Michael Bowden (maybe)
• Yanks: Melky Cabrera, Ian Kennedy, Jose Tabata (maybe)

Which side will blink first and include the player they don't want to include? And how much then will Santana force them to pay?

* Unless the Yankees end up with Johan Santana. And another HT to MLBTradeRumors.

In the Lead?

A little birdie says the Boston Red Sox have become the favorite in the Johan Santana trade sweepstakes.

The Twins would receive four players for the Twins' two-time Cy Young Award winner, including center fielder Coco Crisp, 28.

Others would be shortstop prospect Jed Lowry, 23; left-handed pitcher Jon Lester, 23; and right-handed pitcher Justin Masterson, 22.

Before a deal could be made, the Red Sox would have to have time to negotiate a contract extension with Santana, 28, who can become a free agent after next season and could have a market value as high as $150 million over six years. ...

The New York Yankees don't have the prospects available who the Twins figure have a reasonable chance to play in the major leagues by the end of 2008.

Let me say first I fully believe this is a Minnesota leak designed to get the Yankees to budge beyond simply giving up Hughes and Cabrera for Santana.

That said, this deal would make some sense for the Red Sox -- it leaves Buchholz, Ellsbury and Bowden untouched, and Lowrie is more expendable with the re-signing of Lowell (though I'd hate to see him go). I think this isn't bad, though losing two pitching prospects the caliber of Masterson/Lester makes me wince. The prospect of a Santana-Beckett-Matsuzaka-Schilling-Buchholz rotation in September does not.

HT: MLBTradeRumors

Rice is Nice

If the general definition of a Hall of Famer is one who dominates the game for an extended period of time, usually considered to be at least a decade, what then should we make of these leaderboards for a 12-year period of time (1975-86)?

Preemptive Strike?

ESPN reports on an interesting deal, supposedly imminent. If the Twins trade Matt Garza for Delmon Young, a rightfielder, would they then also trade Santana? If they acquire Young, do they still have any interest in Coco, Jacoby, or Melky in their outfield? Will this move signal to the Yankees and Red Sox that prime pitching prospects, not position players (except maybe Robinson Cano), are the way to the Twins FO's heart? Or does this move actually hurt Minnesota's negotiating position, since they have now limited the roster of players that might be available to them for Johan?

So You Think You've Got Problems?

The sponsor's message on Carl Pavano's Baseball-Reference page:

OH NO !!!!!! NOT AGAIN !!! Arm surgery looming? Can I get my money back for sponsoring Carl's page ?! Not his fault, but he's not lived up to the 40-dollar sponsorship!

Alas, the Yanks are on the hook for a bit more than that. In fact, Carl might want to use some of his $10 million 2007 salary to get the rights back?

PS: Sox Fans: You can get Matt Clement's page for $30!

My Kingdom for a World Series

Let's imagine an extremely unrealistic future for the Hanley Ramirez/Anibal Sanchez-Josh Beckett/Mike Lowell trade. What's happened has happened. Beckett and Lowell played key roles in the Sox 2007 championship run. It would be extremely difficult to imagine the Sox winning the whole thing without without their contributions. Hanley has become one of the most valuable position players in the game. Everyone is happy. Now imagine the next several years. Again, I don't think this will happen and I don't hope it to.

On opening day in 2008, Josh Beckett throws the first pitch of the season in front of 50,000 excited Japanese fans and promptly hears a pop in his arm. His season ends there. Doctors find significant damage in his shoulder and elbow. And for the next three years, Beckett tries valiantly to return to the majors but ultimately fails. He pitches a couple of games in 2010 and reinjures his arm. In 2011, he retires from the game. Meanwhile, Mike Lowell's contract from 2008-2010 has been a nightmare. It becomes clear in the early part of 2008 that Lowell's skills have diminished markedly. He has trouble catching up to fast balls. His reaction time at third is slow. "Passed a diving Lowell" becomes a frequent phrase heard on Sox broadcasts. By 2010, his contract is looked at as dead weight.

In Florida, on the other hand, Hanley Ramirez continues his development into one of the game's best players. In 2009, he wins his first MVP. leading the Marlins to an unlikely NL East title. For the next ten years, he is the face of Marlins baseball. He wins a few MVP's during a Hall-of-Fame career. In addition, Anibal Sanchez comes back from his 2007 injuries to become an ace pitcher in 2008. He is an elite pitcher for the next decade. When he retires in 2018, there is discussion that he deserves a Hall-of-Fame plaque.

The question I have for everyone is, doesn't 2007 make this all worth it for the Sox?

Hey Hank!!!!

Save Phil Hughes!!!

The Yankees absolutely cannot trade Phil Hughes to the Twins for Johan Santana. There is no conceivable way this deal makes sense to anyone with a brain, especially when (say it with me now) SANTANA WILL BE A FREE AGENT IN ONE YEAR. And if he gets traded somewhere else, who fucking cares? Let the Red Sox or the Mets unload all of their top prospects to get Santana. I'll be more than happy as Joba, Hughes, Kennedy and Horne pitch us to many, many championships over the next decade-plus.

I love the Internet, where every fan has a voice.

Dear Mr. Fantasy

I can't tell if the St. Paul Pioneer Press sports columnist Bob Sansevere is a world-class absurdist whose true calling is writing for The Onion or just out of his league.

Read this column and let me know what you think.