In case rumor fatigue hasn't set in yet, I give you this from Gammons (courtesy SOSH):
There are diverse thoughts within the Boston organization on Jon Lester's ceiling. Ask John Farrell, whose voice carries a great deal of power, and he'll argue that Lester can be a No. 2 starter and win 15-18 games next season. So that's why Theo Epstein told Bill Smith this weekend that, OK, Minnesota can have Jacoby Ellsbury in a Johan Santana deal, but not Ellsbury and Lester.
Farrell has a lot of trust built up within the organization -- rightly so, I'd say, considering how he handled the staff last season. If Lester is indeed a 15-18-game winner next year, though, I'd be surprised.



Something that I just realized. If the Yankees get Santana, they would likely end up paying close to 50 million a year for just 2 players.
Yikes.
Posted by: LocklandSF | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 11:40 AM
At this point im practically begging for the Twins to pull him off the market. Im so sick of waiting for a decision. I dont actually believe this will happen of course.
Also, Beane's reported price for Haren is basically absurd so the idea of a consolation prize is hard to believe at this point. He asked yankees for 2 of the big 3 and the sox for 2 of Lester, Clay, and Jacoby.
Posted by: sam-YF | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 11:41 AM
"they would likely end up paying close to 50 million a year for just 2 players."
Honestly lockland, I know its alot but who cares? They will still turn a profit and can clearly afford it. Id rather the money be out on the field.
Posted by: sam-YF | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 11:44 AM
Sam, I didn't mean to say it mattered at all, I was just pointing it out for the wow factor.
Posted by: LocklandSF | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 11:46 AM
fair enough. It is a wow!
Posted by: sam-YF | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 11:47 AM
I agree Sam, I'm sick to death of this. I'm still EXTREMELY INTERESTED, but like last year's season of "24" I just want it to end.
Posted by: Atheose | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 11:48 AM
Or there's:
Santana = 20 million
Beckett = 9.5 million
Matsuzaka = 8.5 million
Schilling - 14 million (given how math is done around here)
Wakefield = 4 million
That's 56 million.
By contrast:
Pettitte = 16 million
Moose = 11 million
Wang = 500k
Hughes = 250k
Joba = 250k
That's 28 million.
Me, that's a more dramatic wow!
Posted by: Mike YF | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 12:13 PM
Really, you wanna play this game? You wanna compare prices of players?
Posted by: Brad | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 12:16 PM
You're a funny dude, Mike.
Posted by: Brad | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 12:18 PM
As Sam pointed out above, here is what BB wants from the Yankees, Red Sox and Mets. Like I said a few days back BB is a S.O.B to deal with and that Haren's asking price would be equal or greater then Johan. He doesn't have to trade Haren, the Twins have to (more or less) trade Johan. This Blurb is from MLBTradeRumors.com:
"Did you expect anything different? Billy Beane is happy to field offers on Dan Haren and Joe Blanton, but he'll require a king's ransom for either pitcher. Jayson Stark says Beane asked the Yankees for two of Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, and Ian Kennedy for Haren. With the Red Sox it was two of Clay Buchholz, Jon Lester, and Jacoby Ellsbury. The Mets would have to pony up Carlos Gomez and Fernando Martinez. With two starters under contract through 2010, Beane and the A's are sitting pretty."
Posted by: John - YF | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 12:22 PM
I think Beane has no interest in trading Haren, not really anyway.
He's going to get someone to regret for YEARS trading for Blanton, however.
Posted by: QuoSF | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 12:33 PM
Exactly, John. The A's are in a position of power because they have great pitching and don't need to get rid of it. Either way they come out on top.
The Twins, however, know that they can't resign Santana and would rather trade him than only get draft picks for him next year. The A's are definitely in a better position.
Posted by: Atheose | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 12:33 PM
Padres are on the verge of signing a four year extension to Peavey for upwards of fifty million dollars. That's a steal if it happens. He makes what Mariano makes. That's funny.
Posted by: Brad | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 12:36 PM
I don't really think Billy Beane is going to move either of them, but if it does happen, my thoughts would be to the Mets. They need him more than anyone.
Posted by: Brad | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 12:37 PM
Seems that the Twins are not happy about Hank's comments. Which means, surprisingly, that they believe him. Why they would believe a word out of his mouth is beyond me, but I guess they took his comments personally. As they should. It's over on Was Watching.
Posted by: Brad | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 12:40 PM
Padres are on the verge of signing a four year extension to Peavey for upwards of fifty million dollars. That's a steal if it happens. He makes what Mariano makes. That's funny.
Holy crap, that IS a steal! Peavy is great, despite playing in a pitcher-friendly park.
Posted by: Atheose | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 12:47 PM
Yeah, I don't know why he would sign that unless he really, really loves SD.
I can't find the print, but it was on EEI's flash, so I have my doubts up till I read it.
Posted by: Brad | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 12:48 PM
Ya, I thought the same at first, but I have to see the contract. My guess (since this would make more sense, though a steal could be possible) is that because he's under contract for the next two years (or one year with a sure option pickup by SD) very cheaply, so the extension would probably remedy that a little bit, as oppose to a simple tack on..
Posted by: Lar | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 12:51 PM
http://www.signonsandiego.com/sports/padres/20071203-9999-1s3padres.html
Here you go Brad.
Posted by: John - YF | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 12:53 PM
Peavy is great,*because of* playing in a pitcher-friendly park (and in a weak division).
Home: 580 IP, 2.95 ERA, 171 BB, 618 K
Away: 507 IP, 3.73 ERA 177 BB, 472 K
Don't get me wrong. He's good. But he looks a lot better because of Petco.
Posted by: Mike YF | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 12:53 PM
"Heyman believes Johan Santana is "more likely than not" to get traded at the Meetings, and quite possibly today." - From MLBTradeRumors.com
The tension builds...
Posted by: John - YF | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 12:54 PM
Oh geez John, the last thing I needed was news like that! Now I'll be hitting refresh every 10 seconds all day to see what happens.
Posted by: Atheose | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 12:57 PM
Mike. Do you think any pitchers are good? I mean, are there any guys out there that you think are just awesome pitchers, despite where or who they play for?
Posted by: Brad | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 12:58 PM
I wonder what pitcher excites you, Mike? What pitcher is out there that you would love to have on your team? Even if you say he's good, which he is (freaking awesome in fact), why the need to shat on him for playing in petcoa?
Posted by: Brad | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 01:00 PM
"...If the Yankees get Santana, they would likely end up paying close to 50 million a year for just 2 players...."
so what lockland, you guys once paid the same amount just to talk to a guy...
"...Why they would believe a word out of his mouth is beyond me..."
brad, you apparently missed the discussion yesterday where mike and i educated your colleagues on hank's negotiating skills relative to the arod trade...seems they had all the facts twisted, and had a hard time grasping the financial details, let alone appreciate hank's clever ploy of letting arod think the yankees were no longer interested...looks like you've been dipping your beak in the same sour grape koolaid they were...the yanks refused to get into a bidding war and they didn't, and basically landed arod for similar money they offered him in the first place with the extension...in fact, the first 3 years are discounted...
Posted by: dc | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 01:01 PM
"Don't get me wrong. He's good. But he looks a lot better because of Petco."
I think Johan Santana is *very* good (except in Fenway :).
Posted by: Mike YF | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 01:03 PM
riiiggghhht, dc. Whatever you think, man. Since neither of us know the details, I'll keep my idea of what happened, and you can keep yours. I have to go on what I read and saw, since I wasn't at the private meetings between the parties.
End result = A-Rod gets a ten year deal for close to thirty million dollars per, and not a penny of it comes from Texas.
Winner = Boras and A-Rod. I'm sorry if I don't really see the amazing level of intelligence and negotiating skills on Hank's behalf anywhere in that result, man.
Posted by: Brad | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 01:06 PM
Sorry, but Peavy is far from "awesome". Take a look at his AL performances. He'd get hit hard - 4.00 ERA - if he came to the better league.
Brandon Webb is much closer to awesome.
Posted by: Mike YF | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 01:07 PM
A-Rod made 28.5 million last year. He's averaging 27.5 million/year in the next contract. Hard for me to call that a Boras win.
Posted by: Mike YF | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 01:09 PM
actually, dc, I take it back. Those negotiating skills are awesome.
Lose Texas money...check.
Talk smack about player...check
Tell press we're out, and we don't want player who doesn't want us....check
Wait for player to realize price is too high...check
Stumble over own words, and welcome player back to the largest contract in baseball history...check.
Where again was this a Yankee victory, dc? I mean, it was a no-brainer move, but what about the process makes you think that this "ultimatum" to the Twins holds any merit whatsoever, man?
Posted by: Brad | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 01:09 PM
A-Rod made 28.5 million last year.
How much of that was from NY? How much of next years will come from them? Oh, and the extra seven or so years can't be overlooked.
Listen it was a great move, but hardly one in which the player/agent were taken to the bank by a savvy owner and GM.
Posted by: Brad | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 01:11 PM
Brandon Webb is much closer to awesome
Isn't he in the same division with worse numbers?
Posted by: Brad | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 01:12 PM
28.5 million minus 27.5 million = 1 million pay cut, on average.
And that doesn't count the 32 million A-Rod was scheduled to make in 2009 and 2010 had he not opted-out.
Posted by: Mike YF | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 01:13 PM
Webb's numbers aren't driven by his home park. And he's the same pitcher when he faces AL teams.
Posted by: Mike YF | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 01:14 PM
Sorry, but Peavy is far from "awesome". Take a look at his AL performances. He'd get hit hard - 4.00 ERA - if he came to the better league.
Beckett's numbers against the AL were horrible too, and he came to the AL, adjusted (2006 was painful), and then pitched an amazing season. Again you're focusing on small sample size!
Posted by: Atheose | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 01:15 PM
Brad the other Winners in the A-rod discussion were the Yankees no matter what you say. They retained the services of the best player in baseball who the wanted all along. They will have him as he breaks HR records and make a killing in the process moneywise. So to say the Yankees arent winners too is just wrong and prejudiced.
Did A-Rod "win" by getting a big contract? Yes. By that definition he was bound to win" all along.
I am always able to tell if the yankees make a good move by the reaction from my SF friends. I dont know you but I doubt you were happy when you heard the yanks retained Alex. There is a reason for this.
Posted by: sam-YF | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 01:15 PM
Mike, Brandon Webb also has a career ERA of 3.61 when pitching in PetCo, which is MUCH higher than his career average. But here's the thing--that's a small sample size, so it's not a strong argument!
See the underlying theme here with regard to your posts?
Posted by: Atheose | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 01:17 PM
WHAT IS THE FINAL PAYOUT???
Are we pretending that the final commitment isn't there? He had seven years added to his deal. So yeah, one million may come off per, but what is the final number?
The said they were out, and turned right around and gave him the largest single payout in baseball history. Ever.
Posted by: Brad | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 01:18 PM
Again, a small sample is better than no sample :)
Posted by: Mike YF | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 01:18 PM
Brad, can we please stop bringing up the ARod contract? We're all sick of arguing about it.
Posted by: Atheose | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 01:19 PM
I don't think anyone is saying it was a bad move for the Yankees to sign Arod. It wasn't.
I just think it's absolutely absurd, given the events, to claim it as some master stroke by Hank.
Posted by: LocklandSF | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 01:19 PM
You're right, Sam. I very much wanted him, but not at that contract. And you're also right in saying it's a good move for next several years on the Yankees behalf.
Posted by: Brad | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 01:19 PM
Brad, drop it please.
Posted by: Atheose | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 01:20 PM
Atheose, it wasn't about A-Rod, it was about Hankenstein, who some profess as a brilliant negotiator with regards to that deal.
I too, am sick of hearing about it:)
Posted by: Brad | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 01:20 PM
"The said they were out, and turned right around and gave him the largest single payout in baseball history. Ever."
What does that prove? Nothing. They could afford it and wanted him. Do you think the yankees will lose money on this contract? Id argue thats highly unlikely.
This makes the yankees "losers". How? You can look at it from whatever perspective you want but it seems to me everyone is a winner here. Except maybe Boras for the flack he took with the opt-out timing. Which is not really irreparable anyway.
Posted by: sam-YF | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 01:22 PM
Mike, if you keep trying to use statistically insignificant data, you're not going to be taken seriously.
I hope you see the error in this statement.
"Again, a small sample is better than no sample :)"
Posted by: LocklandSF | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 01:22 PM
I don't know if .40 ERA is "MUCH higher". If so, the .80 ERA difference in Peavy's home/road split is "MUCH higher" x2.
Point is, we're trying to predict the two pitcher's into a new environment. If I had 160 million over 8 years to give one of them, I give it to Webb. Without a doubt. The evidence suggests so.
Posted by: Mike YF | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 01:22 PM
I don't want to get caught up in this conversation BUT Alex's base last season was $27 million. His $1.5 million for the MVP was an incentive. Also the stipulation that would have pushed Alex over the $30 million mark only came into play IF he was NOT the highest paid player in the game. The stipulation was his contract would increase by $5 million OR $1 million more then the highest paid player in seasons '08-'10 if he wasn't the highest paid player and IF he didn't opt out.
Posted by: John - YF | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 01:22 PM
okay, we can all agree to disagree.
Posted by: Brad | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 01:23 PM
Neither side is learning anything new, and we're going around in circles with this Arod-vs-Hank argument. For the love of god can we move on to a new topic? Think of the children!
I'll give you a topic--the peanut is neither a pea nor a nut. DISCUSS!
Posted by: Atheose | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 01:23 PM
Harping about how the A-Rod negotiations went down is like YFs talking about how bad it was for the sox to lose Hanley Ramirez.
Posted by: sam-YF | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 01:24 PM
I CALL BS!!
Peanuts are both peas and nuts!!!
Posted by: Brad | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 01:26 PM
Agreed, Sam.
Posted by: Atheose | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 01:26 PM
"Winning"
"Losing"
Wrong way to look at things, as far as I am concerned. Both sides "won". They both got something they wanted. But there are reasonable suppositions about the efficiencies of the negotiation process that are subject to interpretation and debate.
With the Red Sox, one could question how efficient they were with the signing of JD Drew. There were no apparent suitors other than the Sox, so why did they pay so much for Drew? With Julio Lugo, similarly, it also appeared as if they were bidding against nobody. So why did they spend so much? It would be hard to argue following this year's championship run that the Sox "lost" those negotiations; both players were important contributors during the postseason, but it is certainly reasonable to discuss and question whether the Sox did the best they could in those negotiations, financially speaking.
With A-Rod, I think the same analysis is possible. With no other apparent suitors (we don't know this for a fact, but all reporting to date has indicated that the market was drier than expected), why did the Yankees give Rodriguez ten years? Why, with incentives, a reachable total of $314M? If they were bidding in a restricted market, could they have been more efficient? To me, this just isn't about winning and losing. It's an intriguing subject worthy of sophisticated conversation.
None of us know the answers to these questions with 100% certainty, but to act as if there is no reasonable and intelligent discussion to be had about the business aspects of these deals, whether they include the Sox or the Yankees, is, to me, silly. On the other hand, some of the absolutism with regards to these recent events, about who "won" or "lost" (from both SFs and YFs) may have already proven my sentiment to be naive: maybe that intelligent discussion is just a fantasy.
Posted by: SF | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 01:27 PM
Diamondbacks traded Carlos Quentin to the White Sox for 1stBaseman Chris Carter. Quentin was once the treasure of the Diamondbacks FS until Upton and Drew came along. He was handed the RF job out of ST last season and really stunk up the joint. As for Carter I know nothing about him other then he is the #4 prospect in the White Sox FS.
Posted by: John - YF | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 01:28 PM
i can say with absolutism that the yankees "lost" by signing Kei Igawa.
Posted by: sam-YF | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 01:29 PM
HAHAHA Sam, I agree. I would have said the same thing for Lugo and Drew, but both turned things around somewhat and contributed in September-October. I have high hopes for both next year.
Kei Igawa? If there was ever a AAAA farm team he would be perfect for it. Great AAA numbers, horrible MLB numbers. Maybe it's a mental thing?
Posted by: Atheose | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 01:32 PM
Amen to that Sam. If I never see Kei Igawa in the Bronx again it will be too soon.
Posted by: John - YF | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 01:32 PM
"Maybe it's a mental thing?"
Nope, he is just awful.
Posted by: John - YF | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 01:37 PM
Yes its a mental thing.
He knows he sucks, in his head he says "I suck", then when he pitches he sucks.
Apparently the Yanks have been getting offers on this POS. I cant believe they would honestly turn any of them down. If they could scam an RP for him of any decent value they should take it immediately.
Posted by: sam-YF | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 01:46 PM
Sam, I got ripped a new one last July when the Padres wanted him and I said take whatever they offer. So be careful, LOL. He probably could pitch in the NL in a very large park or a pitcher's park. Someone get Minaya on the phone.
Posted by: John - YF | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 01:49 PM
A Twins official this morning confirmed that the club is not pleased with comments made by Yankees senior vice president Hank Steinbrenner about trade talks involving Santana.
When asked if he thought the comments constituted tampering, the official replied, “We’re not happy. We’ll deal with this internally.'’
Offered without comment.
http://www.startribune.com/blogs/neal/?p=282
Posted by: SF | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 01:58 PM
Hopefully by "internally" they mean:
"forget him, and his rediculous, and probably false, demands".
Posted by: Brad | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 02:00 PM
A little off topic. But here is a quote from Tyler Kepner today talking about who is at the winter meetings. It reinforces a point made about Torre (what now seems like eons ago) vis-a-vis how hard he works....
"You will also find 29 major league managers here; John McLaren of the Mariners, Lou Piniella of the Cubs and Jim Leyland of the Tigers were among those socializing near the registration desk.
The one manager not here is Joe Torre, who spends most of his winter in Hawaii. He did not attend when he worked for the Yankees, and he’s not here now that he manages the Dodgers."
Posted by: sam-YF | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 03:23 PM
SF, this is why you pay me the big bucks!
"Now this is what I want to know here. Is Hank sending Santana a subliminal message? Presumably Santana already knows that the Yanks and Sox want him. But is Hank The Great's point, the fact that he wants Santana to know of the Yanks' desire, to tell him that Hank will blow away any team with the extension he'd give to Santana? Is this tampering in any way? Is Hank telling Johan, Even if you're traded to the Sox, you'd be wise to use that NTC?
Hank Steinbrenner just might be crazy like a fox. Or he might just talk a lot."
Posted by Nick-YF at 09:38 PM yesterday
I never get anything right! This is big for me!
Posted by: Nick-YF | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 03:26 PM
I don't understand how this is seriously tampering. If Hank were to come out of the blue and say he wants Santana, that's one thing. But, considering there's been very public ongoing negotiations and Yanks are willing to cough up good prospects + a load of $, it's hardly a secret they want Santana, isn't it?
Posted by: yankeemonkey | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 03:31 PM
PS. Above comment does not endorse Hank's big mouth.
Posted by: yankeemonkey | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 03:37 PM
Twins apparently saying they will file tampering charges.
Edes joins in from the meetings:
"Yankees GM Brian Cashman, meanwhile, had yet to arrive. GM Theo Epstein and his aides have been holed up in the Sox suite, holding meetings and making phone calls, and there remains a school of thought that the Sox’ primary interest is driving up the price for the Yankees. One Sox type told me a little while ago that there may be more rumor than substance to what has been reported to date, which is par for the course at these things, though we are persuaded by our sources that Ellsbury and Jon Lester have been offered in different packages.
The White Sox, meanwhile, are anxious for a resolution of the Santana business because they'd like to engage the Sox in talks for Coco Crisp. Boston doesn't trade Coco, of course, if Ellsbury goes to the Twins in a deal for Santana."
Posted by: Paul SF | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 03:41 PM
I'm going to be in meetings until late tonight. I hope that by the time I get back our long national nightmare will be over, one way or another. I'm sick of having to refresh 5 different sites for updates every 2 minutes!
Posted by: yankeemonkey | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 03:46 PM
what is a "Sox type"? My mom qualifies by that description...
Posted by: SF | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 03:49 PM
you should change the name of this site to YTST...
Posted by: sam-YF | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 03:51 PM
sf, i understand you wanting to take the high road in the discussion, but frankly it's the nature of the rivalry to which you contribute [in a good way] to declare winners and losers in all events relative to our teams...you can't deny that there have been a number of comments in various threads pro/con about every transaction the yankees have executed so far this off season...the very nature of those comments and the critique offered with each suggest that there is a "winner" or a "loser" in each case...with maybe a tie ;)
Posted by: dc | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 04:08 PM
" One Sox type told me a little while ago that there may be more rumor than substance to what has been reported to date..."
I'm curious how our SF brethren feel about this. Are the Sox serious here?
Given that the Sox are loath to sign long term expensive contracts (Drew excepted), I tend to think not.
Another problem could be Beckett's reaction to a fellow starter getting a long term deal making over twice his 10.6M per (avg over the next 3 yrs). Could he ask the Sox to re-negotiate his deal?
Posted by: | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 04:24 PM
me.
"the very nature of those comments and the critique offered with each suggest that there is a "winner" or a "loser" in each case...with maybe a tie ;)"
That's your cue for the "not a zero-sum game" comment, SF :)
Posted by: DAW | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 04:27 PM
"Zero sum games roasting on an open fire,..."
Posted by: DAW | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 04:29 PM
I think Beckett gets his deal renegotiated if Santana signs. No way his contract stays the same. How many rings does Johan have?
Posted by: John - YF | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 04:29 PM
I really don't think Beckett would have much of a case for renegotiation. Santana's deal will set the market for him when he becomes a free agent or when the Sox ask to negotiate an extension, regardless of where Santana signs.
To use an example I used before when this subject came up: Should David Ortiz ask for a renegotation since he's making less than J.D. Drew despite delivering close to twice the production last season?
Posted by: Paul SF | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 04:31 PM
Mike said..
Santana = 20 million
Beckett = 9.5 million
Matsuzaka = 8.5 million
Schilling - 14 million (given how math is done around here)
Wakefield = 4 million
That's 56 million.
By contrast:
Pettitte = 16 million
Moose = 11 million
Wang = 500k
Hughes = 250k
Joba = 250k
That's 28 million.
---------------------------------
Wang is arbitration neligible and lohud suggests he will make around $4 million in 2008.
The 2008 MLB minumum salary is $390,000 or about $140,000 more then you slotted Joba or Hughes for.
Posted by: TJ | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 04:31 PM
The only person beckett can blame if his contract is undervalued is himself (and his agent). He signed the dotted line and will have to live with it. I said this yesterday but if every time a team gave a new contract they had to negotiate all of their other contracts it would be chaos.
Posted by: sam-YF | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 04:35 PM
Exactly, Sam. Markets change (insert Airplane! quote here) and I'm sure Beckett and his agent realize this. Beckett's deal is actually somewhat similar to the extension Santana signed when HE was Beckett's age and not yet a free agent.
Posted by: Paul SF | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 04:40 PM
they sign the contracts in advance for a reason. on both sides. otherwise, igawa, lugo, pavano and drew would be writing the checks this year.
Posted by: Yankee Fan In Boston | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 04:49 PM
Papi and Drew are fairly similar.
Papi 4/$52M - $12.5M per
Drew 5/$70M - $14M per
Beckett - 3/$30M - $9.5M/'08 - $10.5M/'09 -$12M Option in '10.
Santana could get that doubles that. If you take into consideration that Papi is a DH and Drew (plays a position pretty darn well in fact) their contracts are pretty equal. Not too start a sh*t storm because I know Papi is a much better player, I am just saying when negotiating a contract I am sure that stuff comes into play. Not a ton of leverage there, but I am sure if he wanted to Papi could squeak out a few more bucks.
As for Josh, he was the team's #1 in a WS Championship season. He dominated the regular season. Pitcher clutch game after clutch game. He now owns two WS rings. Without Beckett who knows where the Red Sox end up this season? His value to this team, especially after that playoff performance cannot be measured. That being said he most definitely has leverage to squeeze some money out of the FO. Santana isn't worth double Beckett, regardless of how good he is.
Posted by: John - YF | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 04:49 PM
" Should David Ortiz ask for a renegotation since he's making less than J.D. Drew despite delivering close to twice the production last season?"
If Ortiz were making half the amount of Drew's salary (which would probably be the case if the Sox sign Santana), then I think he should ask for a renegotiation.
Posted by: DAW | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 04:51 PM
I understand the "every time" rationale, but Josh Beckett is not an "every time" kind of guy. He is the #1 on the best team in the game. He lead them to a WS Title, without him who knows how 2007 ends up. If anyone ever had leverage to reno, it's Josh Beckett.
Posted by: John - YF | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 04:55 PM
John
The sox arent signing Beckett to a contract this year. He was worth what ever they gave him when they gave it to him. If he was worried about this situation he should have signed a shorter contract. If his arm had fallen off the day after he signed it, the sox wouldnt be able to renegotiate it. He has no right to either.
Posted by: sam-YF | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 04:55 PM
"Beckett's deal is actually somewhat similar to the extension Santana signed when HE was Beckett's age and not yet a free agent."
But, he signed that deal with the twins, not the sox, the team with the second highest payroll in baseball.
What I'm suggesting is that if the sox want to keep Beckett happy, they may have to renegotiate if they sign Johan.
Posted by: DAW | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 04:55 PM
Bet me a beer on that one Sam?
Posted by: John - YF | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 04:58 PM
Trisk, if you win the bet, don't collect at the "Riviera". It's a hellhole! :)
Posted by: DAW | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 05:00 PM
That being said he most definitely has leverage to squeeze some money out of the FO.
He has very little leverage. The Sox owe him almost $30M. If he doesn't play in a huff, he doesn't get paid. And if he doesn't play, he also hurts his chances at his next payday, which may be absolutely enormous. I'd say Beckett would be pretty foolish to walk out in a huff because another pitcher signed a bigger contract. The Sox would be smart to just let him, if it ever comes to that, and who would blame them; they made him very wealthy in the market that he signed his contract, before they were obligated to do so. If Beckett approaches the Sox and they agree, through negotiation, to change his package, then good for Josh. His leverage only goes so far as the Sox are generous. Otherwise he's got no good options with any kind of threats, as far as I am concerned, and the Sox would be right to let him atrophy on his barcalounger.
Posted by: SF | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 05:03 PM
that place is the worst. one of my SF buddies had me meet him for a drink there next thing i know im in south boston!
Posted by: sam-YF | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 05:03 PM
Andrews, I was actually in your town this past Saturday. As well as that's where my two boys were born. Great place!
Posted by: John - YF | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 05:04 PM
SF, relax bud I wasn't saying he would not play. All I am saying is if there ever was a Red Sox player that deserved or had some leverage to get his deal Reno'd it's Beckett. Will it happen, I think so. Will he sit out if it doesn't, I HIGHLY doubt it. But what's that saying "You don't know if you don't ask?"
Posted by: John - YF | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 05:07 PM
If the Sox got Santana and signed him to say 6 years/$20M, as a Sox fan/diehard would you hold it against Beckett for approaching them about a raise? I know I wouldn't if I were a (gulp) Sox fan. It's win/win, he asks they say no, nothing happens. He asks they say sure and he's richer then he was 5 minutes ago. It's my opinion I think it happens.
Posted by: John - YF | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 05:12 PM
John:
I realize you didn't say he'd sit out, but other than going into the Front Office and saying "uh, can I have a raise?", what other options does Beckett have to find out if he'll get paid more? The Sox say "no", and then what? Where's his actual "leverage" other than in threats? The Sox can either pay him more or not, and they are under absolutely no obligation to do so and would be pretty blameless if they refused a (hypothetical) demand. So when I think of "leverage" I think of "what could Beckett do to obviate a pay-raise?". Asking for one doesn't qualify as leverage, at least not to me. Holding something over the Sox in order to gain that raise: that's leverage.
Oh, and less than seven hours on the Hankometer, until the Yankees walk away from the Twins. Come on, Twins, you can do it! Show some backbone! Hold out!
(Yeah, sure, if a deal isn't done the Yankees are walking away, right!)
Posted by: SF | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 05:14 PM
And really, the Red Sox signed Beckett to the extension when they did precisely BECAUSE they hoped it would be a bargain down the road: That 1. He's pitch well enough to make himself a bargain, and 2. That they'd lock him in at dollars that would save them money over extending him later or as a free agent.
So, the Red Sox, having obviously done exactly that, would seem uninclined to undo it just because Beckett felt slighted -- and I would doubt that Beckett feels slighted at all. He knows the business. He could have waited just as easily.
Posted by: Paul SF | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 05:20 PM
"Andrews, I was actually in your town this past Saturday. As well as that's where my two boys were born. Great place!"
Thanks, Trisk!
Posted by: DAW | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 05:20 PM
Oh, I agree John. But that's not leverage. That's just Josh being an employee with three years left on his contract who has a question for his bosses.
Posted by: SF | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 05:20 PM
How about this...If there was ever a player who had the RIGHT to ask for a reno/raise it would be Josh Beckett.
You are correct SF. Leverage is the wrong term. Leverage would be Josh telling Theo he had pictures of his wife with Hank and if he doesn't give him a raise then they are being posted on YFSF. That's leverage.
Posted by: John - YF | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 05:21 PM
Leverage would be Josh telling Theo he had pictures of his wife with Hank and if he doesn't give him a raise then they are being posted on YFSF.
That wouldn't be leverage, that would be awesome.
Posted by: SF | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 05:23 PM
07:$6M, 08:$9.5M, 09:$10.5M, 10:$12M club option ($2M buyout)
Look at how crazy that contract is. Josh Beckett is the steal of the century at those prices. I know I have said this before but the Red Sox really know how to negotiate contracts. It's amazing. In 2010 at $12M he would still be making the SAME AMOUNT as GIL MECHE!!!
Posted by: John - YF | Monday, December 03, 2007 at 05:25 PM