The Franchise Goes Down

Ian Kennedy got touched up once again last night in the Bronx, failing to go even five innings. Phil Hughes has a bigger problem, and it may go some way toward explaining his poor performance: a stress fracture in a rib. He will be out for at least a month while it heals, perhaps more, and then he's going to have to rehab his way back to the bigs. Like last year, we might not see him again until after the All-Star break. Needless to say, it's a devastating loss, not only for the club, but for those of us who were so excited to watch his development. (Not that it was going so well.) The Yanks have some replacement parts in the minors that, frankly, can probably reproduce the performances the team has gotten from both Kennedy and Hughes to this point. (Darrell Rasner has been lights-out at Triple-A, for instance), but that's, sadly, not a particularly high bar; the Yanks, after all, are 2-games under .500.

Hey, how's that Santana guy doing?

Comments

[SF]

Yankee fans, be prepared for catcalls of "Nancy"!

[SF]

Or, maybe, "Sarah"?

[Brad]

"and it may go some way toward explaining his poor performance"

I thought he said he did it last week? How does that explain the other starts? Was the oblique injured, then the stress fracture compounded the problem?

[DR]

I'd be curious to hear what other Red Sox fans think about these Yankee injuries.

C'mon Yankee fans! It is time to rally. Instead of all this doom and gloom, we should get excited. I challenge all Yankee fans to come up with exciting things that have happened so far this year. We may just be enduring the equivalent of a bad NBA season where we are waiting to get contracts off the books so we can rebuild. Either that or Robinson Cano is due and Darrell Rasner will be the second coming.

[SF]

As a Soxfan I root for the Yankees to struggle, but as a human being I simply don't root for people to get hurt. That being said, if the injuries are going to occur who am I to shed tears? I don't expect YFs to act any differently. In fact, in 2006 there was quite the outcry of "quit yer whining" emanating from the Big Apple directed northwards.

It's a conflicted existence, a moral quandary, an ethical Rubik's cube...

[John - YF]

Couldn't get back on last night to admit being wrong, but here I am now. I was wrong. I am a big enough man that I can admit it. Phil Hughes injury is legit, sorry Cash.

DR how does one get excited about losing? Losing is never fun. Especially losing the way we have been losing. I wonder if we will be hearing any "Big Three" comments anytime soon. I would have settled for a "Big One" and he wears #57 and plays ball in Queens now.

[DR]

My working assumption would be that people don't root for other people to get injured (with the possible exception of Phillies fans). I don't really pay attention to Red Sox injuries so wouldn't have much to say about them. I just look at the standings.

I'm not quite sure what to make of all these Yankee injuries. Is it the medical staff, bad luck, pressure to perform and win, bad decisions by management, that damn Ortiz Jersey? I'm sure it isn't Reverend Wright's fault at least.

The silver lining may be that the needs for the off season become that much clearer - though that is probably just to me since management probably already has an idea. Then again, it is only May!

[DR]

John, you are right. I'm not telling people to get excited about losing. I'm saying that there have to be some positives to encourage us. It is May 2. I've been looking forward to baseball all winter. It can't be that the next 4+ months are just going to be misery.

I agree though that losing is one thing, but the way they have been losing is depressing. There does not seem to be much energy.

[krueg]

Losing sucks...we all agree. The Yankees are painful to watch right now. I would say a big positive is the Joba to Mo express. Un touchable for the most part. To bad they never get in the game because we don't seem to have many leads to hold! Melky has been solid as well. He seems to be progressing nicely. Lucky we have a CF that can make a play since the guys in both RF and LF look like rookies letting balls get by them for extra bases...

[Lar]

Actually, at first I thought the Hughes DL was a "demotion, but not really" move. Apparently he's really injured..

[krueg]

GOOD NEWS: Bobby Murcer is returing to the booth tonight! That's the best thing I've heard in awhile...

http://www.nypost.com/seven/05022008/sports/yankees/murcer_back_on_tv_tonight_109052.htm

[Paul SF]

Un touchable for the most part.

Krueg, I thought for a second you meant "untouchable" as in, "they never get to touch the ball." Quickly figured out that's not what you meant. There's nothing more frustrating than having an awesome closer and never getting to use him. It sucks. I can't remember the last time Jonathan Papelbon came out for a save situation. At least he's gotten some wins lately...

[Paul SF]

Just realized my last statement could have been seen as being a dig. Not what I intended. I'm just genuinely happy Papelbon at least got in the game and it all worked out for the best.

[Brad]

yeah, I don't think anyone roots for anyone to be physically hurt. Besides, it's much more fun for each side if PlayerX is actually playing and doing so with a high level of suck, like has been the case to date. When they're hurt, it offers excuse (for lack of a better word), and offers them a much longer leash upon their return. When, and if, Phil comes back and gets beat up badly in a start or two, nobody can really say boo about it because of the injury. This means that we'll have to wait till next year before opinions can be formed. That goes both ways obviously: If Clay was hurt, we'd all stand by the "wait till he's healty" statement in defense of his performances.

[sam-yf]

I dont think it is at all fair (although natural) to continually link Phil Hughes with Johan Santana. Keeping Phil was always a long term move not one that would necessarily pan out after 1 month. Its not right to Phil to do so...

I think Phil's earlier struggles can be chalked up partly to inexperience. His rain-shortened start in Chicago looked better and this injury is gonna set him back. So, im not ready to give up on him yet. IPK however....

[SF]

That's funny, Paul. I read your comment the way you meant it, as in "at least he's pitching", but now I see how it might be read of as a dig. I didn't even think that for a second, but if I were a YF...

Damn this non-verbal forum!

[Brad]

Crisp is out tonight with a knee injury, but, Jacoby is back in the lineup tonight. Sorry to hijack.

[Brad]

Great. Jay Cutler has just be diagnosed with diabetes. This week just keeps getting better and better. At least it's friday.

[attackgerbil]

> come up with exciting things that have happened so far this year

Pitching through the pain of a strained oblique and/or cracked rib and possibly a ruptured spleen as well as a case of Lyme disease, Phil Hughes was throwing a great game at U.S. Cellular when he spontaneously combusted on a double play ball by A.J. Pierzynski in the bottom of the second. Fortunately, it started to pour and the torrent was barely adequate to extinguish the inferno, though it did lead to a lengthy game delay. Rather than risk injuring his young star, Joe Girardi decided against sending the still-smoking Franchise out for the third inning. Giambi said the sickly-sweet smell reminded him of bacon.

Following the game at the press conference, Girardi said that Hughes was suffering from a hangnail, which he had not learned of until game time. When asked if Hughes was going to miss his next start due to the hangnail, Girardi replied, "As of now, he is in the rotation."

Mark Feinsand pressed on, asking if the conflagration witnessed by all was serious enough to possibly result in missed time. Girardi held his hand over a lit zippo for a full 60 seconds — it was precisely 60 seconds though he wore no watch and there was no clock in the room — neither blinking nor showing any sort of external reaction save a slightest hint of a grimace and the subtle pulsation of his jaw. Putting the lighter away, the skipper asked, "Any other questions?" He then bit the head off a live bat while giving Pete Abraham a wedgie.

At least that's what I remember.

[SoxFan]

Look at the bright side. If Darrell Rasner doesn't work out, the Yanks still have Kei Igawa waiting in the wings! :)

[Atheose]

I'm sorry to hijack too, but does anyone watch LOST? Last night a timeline for one of the flash-forwards was established, based on a "Yankees win 5-0, sweep Red Sox series" news article.

Everyone in the LOST community is arguing whether it's referring to the 5-game sweep in 2006, or the August 30, 2007 series. It's clearly the 2007 series (it's the only 5-0 Yankee win over the Sox in the last decade), but it's funny seeing people argue about it on the internet.

/unhijack

[IronHorse (yf)]

Yankee offensive struggles (especially a depressing and near total inability to hit with RISP) are nothing compared to the pitching woes. The bullpen is entering in the 3rd, 4th, and 5th innings more often than not.

Unreliable starting pitching and the inability to get timely hits are probably the two worst characteristics for any team with post-season aspirations.

Moreover, I don't see the wild card coming out of the AL East this year. There is too much parity and tough competition within the division now. I would not be at all suprised if the AL East champs don't even garner 90 wins this year, in which case the second place team would almost certainly not squeek in with the WC.

Yes, I am jumping the gun. We are barely in May and I am talking playoff scenarios - and pessimistically at that. I do believe the hitting will come around - Abreu, Matsui, Jeter, A-Rod, and to some extent even Melky have the demonstrated cajones and discipline for timely situational hitting.

But our pitching is more than shaky now and I don't see us having or being able to acquire the kind of starting pitching this year that could help us go on a late-season run if we dig too big of a hole in the coming weeks.

[SF]

Corollary damage, albeit possibly minor: Hughes and Kennedy are doing nothing to increase their value as bargaining chips, were the Yankees looking to parlay young talent for proven talent.

So there's something of a double whammy: the young pitchers were counted on, and the fact that they are failing hurts the team as currently constructed but also damages the team's ability to refabricate themselves were they to pivot organizationally. I don't want to say they have trapped themselves (that's probably too strong a word and implies a lack of foresight, which I don't think is a significant problem with Cashman et al), but there is a potential compounding of the problems because of the team's recent choices.

[DR]

I think that the Joba-Mo connection has been really exciting to watch. That would probably be one of the only positive things worth dwelling on. If they don't plan on moving Joba and the offense starts to pick up that could be a winning formula.

It seems the last few years that April and May are the "if" part of the Yankee season. We have to hope that the Torre adage "Jeter will be Jeter" rings true this year.

[Atheose]

Moreover, I don't see the wild card coming out of the AL East this year.

I do, I just don't think it will be the Yankees. Devil Rays, anyone? ;-)

[IronHorse (yf)]

SF, I don't think the Yankees look to trade Hughes and/or Kennedy anyway - certainly not Hughes - eve if the organization decides it needs to make a mid-season move this year to acquire an innings-eater. I think it would be a big mistake to try to move them and not just because their trade value is down. They showed enough promise to pass up trading them and others for Johan. I don't think the first month of the '08 season, as bad as it has been for them, should be enough of a sample for the organization to reverse its assessment and look to ship them elsewhere. I think these two guys should be kept. If either or both shows the inability to make it in the bigs by the age of 25/26, then the organization clearly made the wrong bet on one or both of them and they could be moved albeit at drastically lower market-value, but I am still glad we held on to them. I would not want to see them moved any time soon and I don't think the organization should be contemplating anything like that this year.

Admittedly, the above goes for Hughes more than Kennedy - both because of higher upside and because of being 2-years his junior.

[Atheose]

Yeah, there's no way the Yankees try to trade them now. They'd get almost nothing in return right now because their values are so low.

[Brad]

That, and they wouldn't get half of what they could have gotten a month ago. Not flame throwing or anything, but if they were ever going to move either of them, they most certainly would have done so before giving either of them a chance to pitch so poorly.

[SF]

I don't think they look to trade them either. My point is that if they did consider moving them (and I am a firm believer that any decent front office should be willing to listen to offers for every single player on their roster, no matter the age, salary, or history) they will be selling lower than a few months ago. It's not that big of an issue, but at least something to consider.

I am 100% sure that the Yanks' front office knew this risk when they elected to hold.

[Brad]

Turnbow has been DFA...
Anyone? I'd take the flier for sure.

[SF]

They'd get almost nothing in return right now because their values are so low.

I started this line of discussion and I think that this statement is an exaggeration. Certainly Hughes and IPK are of high value. But they may not get the return that the Yankees need were they to decide to move them. That's the rub: the Yankees held onto these valuable chits in the hopes that they would be contributors, and now those chits might get .90 on the dollar. So efforts to pivot the team to recover a season, hypothetically, bring other players to the forefront in possible trades, and some of those players may be guys that the Yankees, like with Hughes and Kennedy, just don't want to trade but might have been willing to had Hughes and Kennedy been decently performing. Now, are these guys off the table too, just due to the fact that the organizational depth is not what it was thought to be?

So there's a cascade of implications here and supplemental difficult decisions, none of which are easily understood or easily made.

[IronHorse (yf)]

I think when you hold onto a 21-year old pitcher, you must absolutely do it knowing that he might not contribute in a big way for at least another couple of years, and that he probably would not reach his peak performance for another 5-7 years.

Considering trading him after one bad month or even a bad year would I think be silly, not so much because his value would be lower than what it once was, but because you had to know when you held on to him that, given his youth, he might need a couple years just to hit his stride.

And if you wouldn't include him in a package for Santana, it's hard to see including him before the age of 23 in a package for a lesser pitcher, which pretty much every pitcher is.

[DR]

Santana is no longer available so any trade would automatically be reduced in value.

I don't really think that the implications are cascading much. Cashman is clearly planning to have the Yankees competitive far into the future. The cornerstone is developing the young pitchers and farm system. The events of this year would not result in IPK for a trade involving a catcher or other needs.

The Yankees can probably get Zito anytime they want.

[John - YF]

"I think when you hold onto a 21-year old pitcher, you must absolutely do it knowing that he might not contribute in a big way for at least another couple of years, and that he probably would not reach his peak performance for another 5-7 years."

That's the problem IH. Does Jeter have 5-7 years? Posada? Matsui? Damon? Rivera? Abreu? Pettitte? Hell who among us can say WE have 5-7 years. This team's core is built to win now. That's the huge issue I have with not trading for Santana. Santana is established, you know what you are getting. You don't have to worry about talent getting lost in translation. Santana, Wang, Pettitte...to me that sounds a ton better than what we have right now. Having Moose, IPK and Hughes in the rotation put a huge amount of extra pressure on the offense. Now with Alex and Jorge out, the pressure only gets worse. There was zero risk associated with the Santana trade. You need an ace, we have one for sale, here's 3 young players done deal. I too love the fact that our farm system is packed with "prospects" but they are just that "prospects." I know what Santana gives me...

And for those who didn't want to include Cano in the trade...how would you feel now? And stop telling me how unlucky he is, that's nonsense.

[SF]

And stop telling me how unlucky he is, that's nonsense.

Tell that to Robi. On the way to Yankee Stadium the other day he hit a pothole, screwing up a rim on his Prius. Then when he finally go to the stadium his player's parking lot remote control thingy battery was dead. And then he hit a line drive right at someone. That's a pretty bad run, John!

[Brad]

Hell who among us can say WE have 5-7 years...

Way to bring me down post-lunch, Trisk.

[sam-yf]

John - I think we need to wait a little before we throw Cano under the bus. Its been 1 month! Come on. He has a solid track record and should turn things around. He has been one of the top 2b in the AL for the last few years. Im just as frustrated as you but we need to have a little patience here the season is only 1/6th over.

Also remember that trading for Santana would have cost us a whole heap of cash in addition to those prospects. Yes the yankees have a ton of money but still....

[Hudson]

On the bright side for YFs, I think DR makes a good point above that the Yankees seem to have made a habit in recent years of dismal starts followed by strong July-August comebacks.

On the downside -- and at risk of getting slammed for hating, when I'm sincerely just trying to make a legit baseball point -- I don't like to say "I told you so," but in fact going back to last summer and through this winter, I've tried to make the case that placing too much expectations on rookies and prospects is a low-percentage game for fans.

I continue to feel that the injury woes last Spring caused Yankee fans to compensate in their hopes for the team with overoptimistic assessments of the preparedness of Hughes and IPK. I am not doubting either as talents, but rather noting the habit of fans (and I hasten to add that SFs do this, too) to project greatness upon virtually every promising prospect. Certainly that natural habit was encouraged by their performances last year.

But success in the majors is an extremely chance-y thing. Play is at such a high level that even tiny differences in health, conditioning, mental attitude, discipline, smarts, preparedness, etc. can cause colossal swings in performance.

Similarly, rookies are often misjudged based on early success, ignoring that the more seasoned players in the league are such immense talents (having survived this long at such a high level) that they will inevitably spot any weaknesses or "tells" in both pitchers and hitters. So someone who goes on a tear in his first two months is more than likely to regress to a more mediocre level.

I guess what I'm saying is: It's really not very surprising that the Yankees' new pitchers have not panned out so far. Both may wind up having very promising careers. But if not for various injuries and management decisions, both would likely be still in the minors, honing their games, building endurance and experience. Both are extremely young, so I would not be surprised if either turns it around -- but for any player, any player at all, the odds are against making it in the bigs. Fan disappointment is pretty inevitable.

Think of how many guys are drafted, how many play in the minors, and how few have more than 3-4 really good years at the MLB level.

(Final note: All of the above applies just as much to Sox prospects and rookies. Papelbon seems like he's well past the questionable stage -- but even Pedroia could still turn out to be a flash in the pan, though he's been impressive again this year.)

[Brad]

He has a solid track record and should turn things around....

I agree that he'll turn it around...
But as far as the track record goes:

2007 was by far his best year, but the two years before that, missing forty games, streaky hitting, (.400 here and .160 there) is hardly a "proven track record". The guy is a very hot and cold player, who still has yet to learn to take a walk when it's offered to him. He still can't hit a high fastball, and he can't stop himself from swinging at it either. His OBP is off, but should be better, he has good power, and makes mental mistakes at second (as do a lot of two baggers), but I hardly think he's one of the top two second basemen in the league.
Top five or six maybe, but not top two. Biases aside, unless you're looking at the range factor, I can compile a pretty decent list of guys who are just as good.
Though, I do like Robinson, and think he'll come around just fine from this huge slump he's in. If he doesn't the Yankees are in more trouble than they think, for sure.

[IronHorse (yf)]

John,

We can revisit the non-tade for Santana, but before we do, my main point was about what to do now - when Santana is not an option and you have these two (three actually) young pitchers.

To your point, yes - a starting rotation of Santana/Wang/Pettitte/Mussina/whoever with Joba and Mo closing the door would be wonderful right now. And yes, capitalizing on the remaining quality years we have from Jeter, Mo, and some of the others would be great.

I am simply less focused on trying to grab 1-2 more great years with the vestiges of the previous Yankee dynasty than I am on the possibility that a new one could be built. And to do that, they need to hold on to some core young talent around which they can build. The Santana deal would have taken 2/3 of their top young pitchers plus one of their two brightest young position players (Cabrera or Cano). And I'm not ready to slough off the meaning of shipping Cano out just because he slunmped for the month of April.

[sam-yf]

Brad- I gotta disagree with you. If you look at his numbers alone, they easily put him in the top 3 in the AL for 2b. His offense last year was less streaky that you say, only hitting as low as .260 in any given month. (melky was the really streaky one last season) So sure he isnt a totally proven player but he does have a few years of being a very good MLB hitter at this point.

As far as his defense goes, while i do agree he makes his share of mental mistakes, as someone who watches him daily, he also makes his share of remarkable plays. He has a very strong arm for a 2b and if you look at baseball musing's rankings he is only behind Kinsler in the AL

[krueg]

It's all good Paul...

I think it's time for a Chad Moeller/Bobby Murcer rally!!! Yankees win 9-0 tonight...Wang pitches a 1 hitter!!!

[IronHorse (yf)]

Cano's range to his right is exceptional and extraordinary. His ability to turn the DP, throw off balance, and release the ball quickly are all also superior. His range to his left is a bit more suspect, he does make some mental lapses (though not as many as he used to) and he is not a great situational hitter.

But generally, I am curious to see Brad's list. I don't know if he is top 2 or top 5, but I'm thrilled we have him.

[Nick-YF]

"And for those who didn't want to include Cano in the trade...how would you feel now? And stop telling me how unlucky he is, that's nonsense."

I, for one, think Cano's been a bit unlucky, as BABIP and LD percentage numbers suggest this. That said, even if he weren't unlucky, his numbers would still be pretty shitty. So technically, he 's unlucky, but still he's been pretty bad.

The Johan trade was complicated by the ace's salary situation at the time. At the beginning of the trade rumors--and we have been told now by several people that a lot of what we heard was actually inaccurate--I was pretty much in support of going after Santana for the simple reason that he'd make the Yanks better. As I thought about what possibly could be going on in terms of salary and roster flexibility issues in the future, I had a vision of Jason Giambi's and Mike Mussina's tired bodies, only in 2013, and I thought I could see why you might not want to give so much money to a player soon to be out of his prime. Adding the loss of potentially valuable and cheap talent, I thought it made sense for the Yanks to hold to their guns.

[DR]

Enough with Cano's BABIP, Nick! With the exception of a few HRs, we have been the unlucky ones, having to watch him strand runner after runner.

[DR]

To someone's point earlier, it is actually amazing how patient YF fans have been. That is neither here nor there, but considering that Santana has been booed in Queens, YFs have only really dabbled in the traditional Farnsworth booing.

"only really dabbled in the traditional Farnsworth booing."

latroy wants to know if you've seen him pitch.

[Brad]

Right on Sam...Top three in AL, but I thought you were saying all of baseball. And, I was complimeting his range, IH, not discrediting it in any way.
Call me a homer, but I don't think that outside of power, he has much on DP at all, but again, we're comparing one year to three in that case. At any rate, we're both lucky (or unlucky right now to support Nicks case) to have two great second basemen.

But my list would start with Utley, then Uggla, then Kendrick (another walking injury), Kinsler, Cano, Roberts, DP, and on down the line. Of course, being on the list at all is extrodinary, even if I take the potential into account (I think Howie Kendrick is the best baseball player of any of them, if only he could stay healthy for more than two days) ha.

[DR]

I was just kidding with Nick and honestly I have tried to avoid watching LaTroy pitch, but you are right.