Another Day In Tradesville

So here's what we know this morning. Or what we think we know. Or what others think they know. Or what others wish they think they know. Or... *take the pills, Tiger*

• The Red Sox are in discussions with Florida and Pittsburgh on a potential megadeal that would leave Manny Ramirez in Florida, one or two prospects in either or both Florida and Pittsburgh and bring at least Jason Bay to Boston.
• Those talks have been categorized as everything from not likely to succeed (Gordon Edes) to all but complete (Palm Beach Post).
• This morning, they're being seen as having a roughly 50-50 chance of completion, according to Jayson Stark. The deal would be Bay to Boston, Jeremy Hermida and prospects to Pittsburgh, Manny and John Grabow to Florida (this is a bit of a change).
• A lot of people think the Pirates are holding this up, insisting on either or both hot-shot Marlins prospects Ryan Tucker and Mike Stanton. Florida is insistent that Stanton is off the table, but Tucker might be in play.
• The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette confirms Grabow to the Marlins, not the Red Sox, and says the Pirates "are open-minded on both fronts, the Boston-Florida one as well as Tampa, and there is no deal, tentative or otherwise, in either direction."
• Heyman and Rosenthal haven't updated yet -- probably because they're working on the other big deal of the morning: Ken Griffey Jr. to the White Sox.
• The Boston Globe has been getting its butt handed to them for the last 24 hours. Maybe Edes' head isn't in the game on this, his final day with the Globe, but within hours of posting this slightly condescending "no story here" blog entry, he was forced to react to the breaking reports out of every other media market with interest in this story. The Herald hasn't really been much better. The usual Sox sources seem to be pretty buttoned down on this one. Read into it what you will.

So, with all that sorted out, I think you're caught up (unless something else has happened since I started this post). Feel free to comment here this morning on all trade rumors and possibilities...

Comments

[Paul SF]

As someone pointed out in an earlier thread, the Herald quotes a Sox source as saying there's a "less than 50-50 chance." The Globe is playing up division among th FO and ownership about whether it's wise to trade Manny.

To which I reply: "For Jason Bay? Duh!"

[Yankee Fan In Boston]

the marlins got their man!

(arthur rhodes.)

[Atheose]

the marlins got their man!

(arthur rhodes.)

I don't get it.

[Yankee Fan In Boston]

the marlins completed a trade, but for arthur rhodes, as opposed to manny ramirez, which is not the trade everyone is anticipating.

[Lar]

Kind of trade related, though there was a thread yesterday, but I wonder if the Angels would run less with Pudge back there.. hopefully!

[Brad]

Rhodes is still playing baseball?

Jeez. Who still pays this guy to pitch?

[dw (sf)]

YFiB - I think the folks that follow the Mariners kind of were looking at that scenario.

Apparently the sox are looking at Putz (which I wouldn't be against). They can have Hansen!

Griffey to the White Sox? that one no one saw coming (of course he has to approve it - then ChiSox need to figure out where to play him)

[John - YF]

He actually had a pretty decent season so far. Just goes to show you Brad you throw with the left wing, throw strikes and there will always be a home for you.

[Yankee Fan In Boston]

i meant those at this site, dw, but yes, i see what you're saying.

[Yankee Fan In Boston]

olney says not to expect washburn to be traded to the yankees before the deadline:

http://tinyurl.com/5hf4mr

[Atheose]

Washburn? Wow, the Yankees are getting small pieces everywhere.

[Brad]

Again, NY getting better by not getting Washedup.

[Brad]

Getting Washburn, and his insane salary, is like having Lugo on your team. He's just there. Not really contributing on an important level in any way shape or form.
That's the deal I wanted them to make!

[Atheose]

Oops YFiB, I didn't see the "not" in that statement.

[Yankee Fan In Boston]

rosenthal says that talks are still progressing, there's an agreement on the major league guys to be shipped, but prospects are tying things up:

http://tinyurl.com/62komg

[Yankee Fan In Boston]

oh... the above is in reference to the manny trade talks.

sorry.

[LocklandSF]

Current Manny for Spring Training Manny, straight up!!

[Yankee Fan In Boston]

rosenthal also says that griffey is officially going to chicago now, but i still haven't seen who the reds are getting:

http://tinyurl.com/64yfq6

[Dirty Water]

"To which I reply: "For Jason Bay? Duh!""

Statheads are best kept in a cool, isolated container where their misrepresentations of true player values are not heard.

[Nick-YF]

tough decision for yanks fans. if the deal isn't made by boston, then bay seems likely headed to TB, which would make the Rays that much harder to catch. Yet, this deal seems to be a decent one for the Sox. Not sure what I'm rooting for.

[Nick-YF]

at the same time, this yanks fan is ready to see manny gone, never to torment the yanks again, so I guess I'm rooting for this deal.

It won't happen because it never does.

[Yankee Fan In Boston]

i would rather have the yankees face bay than ramirez in the sox lineup. and if bay ends up in tampa, so be it.

[Yankee Fan In Boston]

although it looks like the rays are going after adam dunn:

http://tinyurl.com/5qzel6

that would be scary.

[Nick-YF]

I miss the days when Tampa was a stupid organization.

[John - YF]

I like Adam Dunn, I do, but he scares me a heck of a lot less than Bay.

[Atheose]

Dunn on the Rays? That certainly adds a lot more pop to their lineup. Gulp.

[Paul SF]

Not much word on the trade this morning at all, and less than four hours to go. Makes me think something's actually happening...

[Atheose]

No kidding, silence is usually more indicative of progress than lots of chatter. That's how it was with the last moments of the Santana deal, at least.

[IronHorse (yf)]

"I miss the days when Tampa was a stupid organization."

Priceless.

[LocklandSF]

Breaking news...

http://tinyurl.com/2o2wrb

[Atheose]

Lockland, I don't see how the fact that Rick Astley is never going to give me up (or let me down) is breaking news. I've known this all my life!

[Paul SF]

Jon Heyman says Manny has approved a trade to the Marlins -- just in case.

[Paul SF]

And Rosenthal says the one holdup is the prospect the Pirates want from the Sox.

But that's a key holdup, imo.

[SF]

I am unclear as to why Will Carroll still has any credibility on trade reporting. "It was on the Commissioner's desk for approval"? Please.

[rootbeerfloat]

I just wonder how much the dynamic of Manny's annual trade request followed by shoulders being shrugged and lights-out hitting changes with Boras as his agent....

[Paul SF]

ESPN's blog reporting the Rays have been informed that Jason Bay is "likely to go somewhere else," and they are no longer pursuing Dunn.

[Yankee Fan In Boston]

what the heck does this mean?

"If he's not traded by 4 p.m. today, there's a 1 percent chance that he finishes the year with the Red Sox. This has gotten so ugly," said Olney.

( http://tinyurl.com/5kgnyp )

are they going to have manny whacked?

[dc]

i don't get the percentages:
how could a trade be 50/50?....isn't it all or nothing?...the trade happens or it doesn't...isn't that 100/0?...what would move a trade from 50/50 to say 75/25?...
what does a 1 percent chance he finishes with the sox?...huh? ...what factors make up the 1 percent?...help...math whizzes?, paul?, anyone?

[Atheose]

He could still be released on waivers after the deadline... right?

[Atheose]

dc, they mean there's a 50% chance the trade does not occur, and a 50% chance it DOES occur. The likelihood of Manny going to the Marlins is a coinflip, essentially.

[Yankee Fan In Boston]

my guess is that they find him floating in the charles or they go all jimmy hoffa and have him buried beneath the new stadium.

[Yankee Fan In Boston]

our two teams are supposedly trying to outbid each other for scott eyre.

http://tinyurl.com/5lxb6f

i was going to question why the yankees would be interested, but i will just sit back and trust mr. cashman.

[Atheose]

It's hilarous that Scott Eyre got an MVP vote in 2005.

[Yankee Fan In Boston]

wow. is his mom in the BBWAA?

[Sam-YF]

so now they are reporting the manny deal is dead. If he doesnt get moved is this the best thing that could happen from a YF perspective? Does he half-ass it the rest of the year or move on and start playing hard?

[stuck working]

Just up over at ESPN...

Blame game over Manny
Posted by Jayson Stark
Yet another official with one of these three teams says the Manny-Bay deal is dead. In the aftermath, the teams involved seem unsure of what happened. The Pirates are blaming the Marlins. The Marlins are blaming the Pirates. And the Red Sox aren't too happy with either of them.

[dc]

thanks atheose...i understood the logic of attempt to assign a probability value, but a coinflip reference suggests it's being left up to chance...50/50 suggests to me anyway a lack of confidence that it will happen, and there are significant factors to overcome...it would be interesting to know what the factors against the trade happening are exactly...i've heard that they're haggling over prospects, but either a team parts with an acceptable prospect or they don't...most teams already know a lot about the other teams' prospects so there shouldn't be any surprises...i don't know, i started out joking about this, but now i'm probably giving myself a pointless headache

[dc]

"...the teams involved seem unsure of what happened..."
how could the teams not know what happened?...wtf
by the way, update the probability to 0 percent chance, although it's not 4:00 yet...

[Atheose]

I can understand the Pirates being unhappy (losing Bay and gaining Hermida + prospects isn't appetizing) but the Marlins should have been happy with the deal. Sigh.

[Yankee Fan In Boston]

while i have less than nothing upon which to base this, but i'd put my money on manny being traded.

not much money, but some change maybe.

[Atheose]

There once was a player named Manny
Who kept falling down on his fanny
He made a big scene
They all called him mean
He'll find peace somewhere down in Miami

[Atheose]

The Jays are apparently making a push for Jason Bay now. The last thing we need is a FOURTH team in the AL East race.

[dc]

funny stuff atheose...i'll be cracking up the rest of the day over that one...

[IronHorse (yf)]

On WFAN they just said that the Pitts Post-Gazette reported that the Pirates have agreed to the prospects they were offered (they didn't report who those prospects were) and that all that is left is for the Marlins and Sox to agree on the money (that the Sox offered $7 mill and Florida wants $9 mill.

Dont' know how reliable the PPG is or the WFAn reporting of the PPG, but taht doesn't sound like a cooling off to me if it is accurate - just the opposite.

[Atheose]

If they're squabbling over 2 mil then Loria is one cheap SOB.

[stuck working]

Ha, newsflash, Ath.

[SF]

ESPN says "all but dead". Same sources as Will Carroll?

I hate trade deadline reporting, it's beyond ridiculous. Nobody should believe a f*cking thing that comes out of these outlets.

Sorry for the cynicism.

[Sam-YF]

looks like the Bay to the Rays talks could be heating up now. That would be a blow to us both.

[IronHorse (yf)]

Totally agree Ath. If this thing works the Marlins get an ubelievable deal - a Manny rental for which the bulk of rent is paid by the Sox anyway, after which they would presumably offer Manny arbitration with the pre-agreement that he would turn it down (does he want to hang out in Florida past 2008?) and thus land a first round draft pick to further stock a well-stocked farm system. And for all this they give up Hermida.

Being in NY while this is going on is funny - Mets fans are having cows that their division rivals, who just took first place from them, might land Manny without having to pay much for him and Yanks fans are pleased as could be if they never have to see Manny in a RS uniform again.

[Sam-YF]

This may be playing out like it has every year. Close to a trade but nothing in the end. Its Deja Vu all over again.

[stuck working]

And now we get this...

Bay-to-Rays talks back on

Posted by Jayson Stark
Those on-again, off-again Jason Bay-to-Tampa Bay talks are back on, according to a source familiar with the discussions. The two sides have been so far apart that it appeared they'd given up on each other as of early Thursday afternoon. But the source said they've closed that gap somewhat and are still talking.

Tampa Bay has hinted its willingness to structure a package around pitcher Jeff Niemann and shortstop prospect Reid Brignac, but the Pirates have been seeking one of their elite pitching prospects -- Wade Davis, David Price or Jeremy Hellickson.

As several others have said, I assume that all this is a mix of negotiating strategy (Pittsburg trying to get to the table or something) and sheer ignorant rumor-mongering.

[Atheose]

Seriously, since when are the Florida teams big buyers at the deadline? This is like some topsy-turvy bizarro world.

[stuck working]

Now the Globe is saying the Dodgers are in it...

Hmmm...Matt Kemp.

[Yankee Fan In Boston]

less than an hour and a half to work this stuff out.

[Atheose]

I have a huge baseball-erection for Matt Kemp, but would rather get Bay. And wow, Manny to the Dodgers sure would upset the balance in the NL West.

[Yankee Fan In Boston]

atheose, i've taken to calling those "merkles."

[IronHorse (yf)]

WFAN now also reports that Florida-Pitts-Boston is dead; that Boston is talking to LA Dodgers re: Manny; that Manny has said he will agree to a trade anywhere as long as they do not exercise his $20mill for next year so he can be a free agent.

[Paul SF]

Heyman and Cafardo both say the Sox are talking to the Dodgers. Sox want Kemp, Dodgers say Ethier. If the Sox get Kemp, their second option is better than their first option.

[rootbeerfloat]

IH's post makes me think this is Scott Boras talking. I know this is like blaming your brother being an asshole on his new girlfriend when he really was an asshole all along. But Manny was saying he wanted the options picked up earlier this year so I think Bras has been telling him how much more he'll make as a free agent. The A-rod opting out all over again.

[Atheose]

If the Sox get Kemp, their second option is better than their first option.

What do you mean by this? That Coco is a better outfield option than Kemp?

[Lar]

Loria went to my HS. Haha.

[Paul SF]

No, that Kemp is a better option than Bay.

[rootbeerfloat]

Paul - I confess I don't follow NL much at all. Are you telling me I should be happy about Kemp? Cuz if we're losing Manny, I want to find something to be happy about.

[Atheose]

Ahhh, gotcha.

[Paul SF]

Kemp: Only 23, under our control for another three years, 125 OPS+ (.894 OPS) at age 22, 110 OPS+ this season, but after a slow start he's hitting .972 OPS over the last month. He's a five-tool superstar stud prospect who looks to be living up to the hype. He won't be as good as Bay this year, but he could be as good next year and better the next two, by which point we'd have hopefully locked him into a long-term deal.

[IronHorse (yf)]

As happy as I'd be to see Manny leave, I'd be bummed if the Sox got Kemp.

[Paul SF]

Less than an hour to go. Time is no longer the Red Sox' friend if they want to work a deal.

[Brad]

I agree. I'd rather have Kemp, but EEI has mentioned the poss of taking the lesser prospect from LA, then adding their own pieces, and moving him to Pitt for Bay, thus taking Florida and the short bus they're riding on, out of the equation altogether.

[rootbeerfloat]

ok so better than Bay but a replacement for Manny?

[Paul SF]

MLB.com's Trade-day blog says the Pirates and Rays have agreed to a deal for Bay, though the Rays have not confirmed that.

[Brad]

Not now, but he's closing in fast, RBF.

[Paul SF]

I don't know how it would work as far as the overall package. We know Kemp would be much better on defense and on the bases, helping to mitigate any dropoff in offense. But we can't really expect Kemp to OPS+ 140 right away...

[Yankee Fan In Boston]

tampa (jason) bay

http://tinyurl.com/6boua9

[Brad]

FAN is reporting the deal between rays and pirates is done.

[Atheose]

The Rays getting Jason Bay now makes this AL East race a MUCH tougher game of catch-up than it was before.

[Lar]

Wait, deal between them _without_ the Sox or? I haven't been following..

[Lar]

Sorry, crossed up Rays/Marlins in my head.. wow. I hope the asking is high..

[Atheose]

Lar, the Rays just swept in and stole the Red Sox' lunch money (Bay).

[Sam-YF]

bay to the rays is rough.

[Brad]

Good going, Theo.

So now, two teams have gotten sig better in the last week, and Toronto is reportedly close to getting Ibanez, and you've sat on your hands the whole time.
Awesome. Way to be absolutely bitch slapped by the teams in this division, who clearly care about things that happen this year, while you hold onto a disgruntled outfielder, who will probably go on the DL when he wants to stop playing for you.
Sweet.
Lets hope everything pans out in 2010 when these prospects are supposed to pan out for you.

I really hope that this is not the case. Really.

[Brad]

Way to improve the bullpen.
Way to move Manny.
Awesome.

[Paul SF]

My concern, also, is that the Sox spent all the time they could have spent upgrading the significant holes on this team chasing what was ultimately an unliklely scenario because Manny essentially held them hostage. We might never know how all this went down, though. One would assume they have more than one team of officials working on multiple possibilities.

[IronHorse (yf)]

"ok so better than Bay but a replacement for Manny?"

I honestly believe that Kemp is about as close as one can get in this market and taking into account the prospect of locking this kid in for the long term.

Having said that, no one can replace Manny and this is particularly when viewed from the perspective of how well Manny does against the Yankees (a particular interest to some of us here!).

In 200 games vs. the Yankees (by far the most he has played against any team), Manny has compiled 233 hits, 163 RBIs, batted .321, slugged .618, gotten on base at a .421 clip, and OPS'ed 1.029. And that includes his Cleveland years. If you look at his last four years as a RS vs. the Yankees, you feel ill - if you are a YF that is (WARNING TO YFs: DO NOT READ THE 2006 FIGURES IN PARTICULAR IF YOU WANT TO HOLD DOWN YOUR LUNCHES):

2005: 82 PA in 19 G, 6 HR, 17 RBI, 10 BB, .324 BA, .415 OBP, .620 SLG, 1.034 OPS, 111 OPS+

2006: 63 PA in 15 G, 7 HR, 21 RBI, 17 BB, .556 BA, .667 OBP, 1.111 SLG, 1.778 OPS, 231 OPS+. Umm, this works out to a HR every 6.4 ABs by the way. Not even sure these numbers are physically possible.

2007: 59 PA in 13 G, 4 HR, 8 RBI, 8 BB, .392 BA, .475 OBP, .686 SLG, 1.161 OPS, 162 OPS+

2008: 44PA in 11G, 3HR, 11 RBI, 5 BB, .417 BA, .523 OBP, .778 SLG, 1.301 OPS, 178 OPS+

If Manny does move today, I may have to refine this a bit and post it as an hommage/good riddance post from YFs.

[LocklandSF]

Plenty of time left!!!

[IronHorse (yf)]

On the other hand, if Manny doesn't go, I am willing to bet he comes right back into the fold and mashes. That's just what he does. He is a single minded automaton. I know SFs are saying that it is all just really different now, but I don't know. If this crisis passes and he decides he just as to swallow hard and take 2 (or 3) more months of no having "peace of mind" I believe he'll do it and - as always - his performance won't suffer an ounce as a result.

[SF]

why would the Dodgers ever trade Kemp for Manny unless they were getting something quite sweet in addition?

[FenSheaParkway]

You know, it's trading deadlines like these that make me really glad the Sox won the World Series last year.

[Yankee Fan In Boston]

Plenty of time left!!!

hilarious.

[Paul SF]

Edes now says the Sox are not in discussions with the Dodgers, and Goldstein at BP says a deal for Kemp is not available.

Looks like this deadline will suck.

[IronHorse (yf)]

I wonder if we'll ever find out how/why the 3-way deal fell through. If it is true that the prospects were agreed and it came down to a $2mill differential, I would have to say Florida is ridiculous and even greedier than greedy.