Cy Matsuzaka?

I'm not saying he deserves it, but there's a chance that Dice-K will win the Cy Young award this season. He has the record (16-2) and ERA (2.82) that make voters swoon. He also pitches for a team that will likely make the post-season. Cliff Lee's wins and ERA might be better, but he pitches for Cleveland.

On the other hand, will the writers punish him for walking 80 batters in 140 innings, and pitching only 12 quality starts? Will his inefficiency hurt his case?

I may be misreading Sox fans' perception of Daisuke, but my guess is that most Boston rooters don't think he deserves the honor since many of his starts are excruciating affairs. Am I wrong to think that most Sox fans don't even think he's been the best starter on the team?

Comments

[BillsBurgSF]

I'd say they give it to Lee. He's has better numbers and the Cy is not like the MVP. The Cy Young voters don't generally take the team making the playoffs into consideration like they usually do with MVP. Problem I see is his SO:BB has only been over 2:1 in 6 starts this year, yes he does seem to have a knack of pitching out of jams (think i recently saw something like hitters are 0-13 with the bases loaded this year).

The other question is, do Youk or Pedro make top 10 in MVP voting? I say yes, maybe top 5 for one of them.

[BillsBurgSF]

Just looked it up:

Based loaded, 0 hits 14 AB, 1 walk 5Ks. You'd think that would catch up with him at some point.

Runner on 3, less than 2 outs, Opp BA .222
Runner on 3, 2 outs, Opp BA .087

[Brownie]

I don't think he deserves it, because I think the effect of regularly going 5-6 innings instead of 6-7 innings is pretty big. If you're out after 6 or 7, you've at least got your top one or two setup men and your closer to finish it. If you're out after 5, you start trotting out the inferior middle relievers to try and get you to the end of the game. I think most teams have a couple of decent setup guys, but the quality of relief drops off pretty significantly after that. So yeah, I think a guy who gives you less than 6 innings a start isn't doing enough to help you win.

That said, if he keeps giving us starts like last night for the rest of the season, he should at least enter the conversation.

[BillsBurgSF]

I hadn't noticed that. Maybe that was a team decision to keep him fresh through the playoffs. Though the team is 4-2 in his 6 NDs

[I'mBillMcNeal]

He will get votes and he will be in the top 5. Cliff Lee wins it.
Yes, his outings tend to be excruciating, but we have learned that for the most part, he gets out of the messes he makes. And for that he does deserve a lot of credit. AND, two of his last three starts have been virtual masterpieces.

[I'mBillMcNeal]

Brownie, he has been in the Cy conversation for a long time.

[Atheose]

Hey Billsburg, do you live in Williamsburg, VA?

I think Daisuke will be in the top 3 for Cy Young voting, but he certainly doesn't deserve it. He's been brilliant with RISP, but he's only pitched in 140 innings compared to Lee's 185, and Halladay's 204.

[Brownie]

FWIW, ESPN's James/Neyer Cy Predictor has Daisuke in fourth place at the moment, which is up quite a bit from a few weeks ago (probably because he didn't qualify for the ERA title a few weeks ago, if I'm not mistaken). Papelbon's right behind him, which came as a surprise to me.

[Atheose]

Who is ahead of him, Brownie? Lee, Halladay and KRod?

It'll be a crime if Burnett is in there.

[Sam-YF]

Mo should at least be in the discussion for Cy Young this year. I realize his numbers in non-save situations arent great but his numbers in save situations and overall are fantastic. 1 blown save all year is amazing....

[BillsBurgSF]

Ath - sure do, actually it's York County, but I'll take the Williamsburg address.

I'm wondering if the lower inning count is a planned thing on the Sox mgt part. That, plus his 3 week rest in June will probably keep him stronger going down the streach and into the playoffs. Considering that they have only lost 2 games in which he didn't get the decision, and if his last few starts are any indication, looks like the plan is working.

[Devine]

A month could change things dramatically (though I don't think so), but right now, Lee wins. Cakewalk.

[Devine]

And no, Matsuzaka isn't close.

[Brian Houk SF]

Y'know, I overheard a Red Sox fan telling an Angels fan that he doesn't like Matsuzaka. I walked over and said "he's 11-2 (at the time), he's been pretty good and the only loss he had where he got spanked came when he returned from the DL." The Sox fan (a softball coach) said "I just don't like the way he pitches"

So, on the face of it, Matsuzaka's numbers are good, but when it comes to a Cy vote there are obvious deficiencies, and sometimes Dice K is just unbearable to watch, like when he loads the bases, and sometimes he's sublime, like when the opposition is 0 fer with the bases loaded.

[Hit Dog]

We forget that the Cy Young isn't the MVP, and team success has no "official" sway in determining the award (not that MVP has "must be on winning team" labeled on it). Only that overinflated success statistic of the almighty Win changes deserving pitchers ('05 Johan Santana) to also-rans (to '05 Cy winner Bartolo Colon and his plus 3.50 ERA).

That said, Lee's having a dandy year with a ton of wins. 4th sounds about right for Daisuke; Lester, we should all know, is the staff's true ace until now, and Beckett is in playoff hibernation, I hope.