Lowe, Mets playing in Different Ballparks

The Times is reporting that the Mets are earnestly targeting Derek Lowe.  It's looking good: they are only $54M apart.  Boras has the Mets right where he wants them.

Comments

[Nick-YF]

I know baseball free agent markets don't operate efficiently, but based on Dempster's and Burnett's contracts, I have to think that Lowe's eventual price tag will be closer to Boras's numbers than the Mets'. If not, wow, would I be wrong with my prediction that Lowe would be one of the most overpaid free agents this off-season.

[SF]

The Mets' offer is a total lowball, there's just no reason to price Lowe at 1/2 of what CC is being paid at this point on a far shorter commitment. He will get more than this offer, you are right.

If I am Theo I am obviously calling Boras (and I am guessing he has).

[Nick-YF]

"If I am Theo I am obviously calling Boras (and I am guessing he has)."

Heck, if I'm Cashman I'm calling Boras.

My point is not simply that Lowe is going to get more than the Mets' initial offer, but it's going to be much closer to Boras's. Unless, the Yanks' and Sox's (but I think you're right that Theo definitely is kicking the tires here) absence from the bidding has completely killed his market.

[John - YF]

If I am Boras or Lowe, I wait this out. The Mets, as well as many other teams need a solid pitcher like Lowe. I am not a sports agent, but at this point I wait to see if the offers increase. There is no benefit to signing right now, especially if it's a so-so offer. The Mets don't want OP back at the price he's asking, so Boras kind of has them by the cahones. The Mets don't want Sheets, so who is left after that...wait it out Boras.

[DR]

The talk was that the Mets highest bid would be in hte ballpark of 3/$40. Bernie Madoff stole the rest of Lowe's offer.

[Nate]

There is a benefit to signing right now, and it has to do with the tax implications. I'm sure all of you are well aware that your seven-figure salaries will be nibbled a bit more in 2009 by Uncle Sam. In the case of bonuses, probably even more.

[John - YF]

LOL I only have a seven figure salary if you count the cents.

Well unless they get the contract done in the next 10 hours or so, I think that window has closed.

But great point.

[Paul SF]

A couple of points I wanted to address here:

If I am Theo I am obviously calling Boras

Absolutely. If Lowe's best offer is $12M per for three years, the Sox could easily top that on AAV for the same term -- and should. But I agree that sounds more like a starting point than a final offer.

Heck, if I'm Cashman I'm calling Boras.

There's been discussion, and I'm not sure it's ever been decided, on whether the Yankees actually could sign a Lowe or a Sheets. The CBA as I understand these discussions says a team can sign up to three Type A free agents. Any beyond that have to be matched by the loss of a Type A free agent. Since the Yanks lost three Type As -- Giambi, Abreu, Mussina -- they're capped at three Type A signings. That's what people say, anyway. I'm just the messenger on this one.

If I am Boras or Lowe, I wait this out.

That's a very pre-recession attitude. Every indication is -- and has been for a while -- that the market for the second tier and lower free agents would be depressed and may get worse with the passage of time. I'm not sure Boras' usual tactics work well in a market where the prices are constantly declining. The Mets' offer is surely a starting point, but it's certainly quite a low starting point, given the assumptions made in October.

I'm sure all of you are well aware that your seven-figure salaries will be nibbled a bit more in 2009 by Uncle Sam.

This is extremely unlikely, as even Obama says he does not want to raise taxes during an economic meltdown. He's much more likely to let the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy expire on their own, which I think is in 2010, not 2009. So the implications of waiting are purely economic, not political.

[Nick-YF]

"Since the Yanks lost three Type As -- Giambi, Abreu, Mussina -- they're capped at three Type A signings."

Wouldn't Pettitte be the 4th?

[Rob]

The CBA as I understand these discussions says a team can sign up to three Type A free agents. Any beyond that have to be matched by the loss of a Type A free agent. Since the Yanks lost three Type As -- Giambi, Abreu, Mussina -- they're capped at three Type A signings.

There's a contradiction in what you say here.

1) can sign up to three Type A free agents
2) any beyond "that have to be matched by the loss of a Type A"
3) The Yankees lost 3 (or two if it's dependent on them signing with another team).

Based solely on what you've said here, that means the Yankees could sign six Type A's? Three new and three to replace the three (or two) "lost".

What am I missing? Are folks saying it's an either/or? Sign up to three OR replace lost Type A's - whichever is greater?

[Nick-YF]

"That's a very pre-recession attitude. Every indication is -- and has been for a while -- that the market for the second tier and lower free agents would be depressed and may get worse with the passage of time. I'm not sure Boras' usual tactics work well in a market where the prices are constantly declining."

I'm going to give Boras a little more credit than this because otherwise he's done an extremely awful job of maneuvering this off-season, essentially by playing a waiting game with most of his big-name free agents. But it's possible.

[John - YF]

The Mets are stuck though Paul, recession or no recession. They can't open the season with what they have. They aren't looking for an upgrade, they are looking for fill a void. I still think, and I respect your opinion, that waiting only nets him more money IF it involves the Mets. I guess the same can be said for any SP's that are out there and the Mets are interested in.

Somewhere Carl Pavano is salivating!

[SoxFan]

The Yanks should just sweep in and sign Derek Lowe away from the Mets.

I mean, what's a billion dollar payroll these days?

After all, it's not like we're in a recession or possible Great Depression or anything.

[SF]

What do taxes have to do with signing quickly? First of all, if Lowe earns money in early 2009 he doesn't have to file on them until April 2010, so he'd be pretty foolish to sign a contract with hours to go in 2008. But who the hell even knows his tax burden and how he pays it? Does he pay estimated? Does he shelter? How much goes to alimony, etc.

I imagine if he's determined to play in NY then he's going to sign after the ball drops, he'd want control of his money as long as possible before having to give anything to the city, state, and nation. But really, other than understanding the burden of paying as a NY resident (a bigger burden than playing as a Marlin) I can't imagine he'd ever want to rush a signing right before the end of the year and take in a bonus to beat the clock.