You're not going to get much more extreme than this week's series in Baltimore. The Red Sox had a 99.4 percent chance of winning with no outs in the bottom of the seventh on Tuesday. They lost. The Orioles had a 98.6 percent chance of winning with two outs in the top of the ninth on Wednesday. That didn't work out so well either.
In the end, the Red Sox won the series, kept pace with the Yankees, and won their 20th game in 28 contests. As commenter rootbeerfloat succinctly summarized in yesterday's game thread:
If someone predicted on Monday: Sox win the Lester and Beckett starts, lose the Smoltz start by a run though he pitches well, I would have been happy. It was just hell to live through.
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i heard one of the espn talking heads give these probabilities yesterday paul...i like the graphs better, especially the one from the 6/30 game...nice visual...
Posted by: dc | Thursday, July 02, 2009 at 09:58 AM
Fangraphs is an amazing site. I don't know how I lived without sites like that, and baseballreference.
Here's a fun stat, to put things in perspective:
2006 AL East Standings after about 77 games:
Boston......48-29....--
Yankees....45-32...3.0GB
Toronto......45-34...4.0GB
Baltimore....37-44..13.0GB
Devil Rays..35-45...14.5GB
The Tigers were 30 games over .500, LAA was last, and OAK was in first.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/games/standings.cgi?date=2006-06-30
I'll take another regular season like 2006!
Posted by: AndrewYF | Thursday, July 02, 2009 at 10:06 AM
"...I'll take another regular season like 2006!..."
i know your strictly speaking about the regular season andrew, but i'd prefer to go with one that ended in a ws win, like 2000 for instance...that would be nice...
Posted by: dc | Thursday, July 02, 2009 at 10:41 AM
That last couple days says a lot about the Sox. They lost the night before in embarrassing fashion, were down 4 in the 9th but came up and tied the game. Then won. Very impressive effort by a great team.
Posted by: krueg | Thursday, July 02, 2009 at 11:17 AM
hey Jason Bay is becoming a US Citizen today!
Posted by: dw (sf) | Thursday, July 02, 2009 at 11:40 AM
Maybe as a celebration he can start hitting again. ;-)
Posted by: Paul SF | Thursday, July 02, 2009 at 11:53 AM
But will there be a photo op with him running onto the field with a tiny flag?
Posted by: Devine | Thursday, July 02, 2009 at 12:42 PM
Devine beat me to it with his comment. Be proud, Bay!
Posted by: Atheose | Thursday, July 02, 2009 at 12:59 PM
Do you guys think the Sox will get him locked up or will he be a Yankee next year?
Posted by: krueg | Thursday, July 02, 2009 at 02:16 PM
I think the Sox will sign him, for one reason (which actually involves several other reasons):
Scott Boras is not his agent.
The sub-reasons are: Everyone seems to want a deal done. Bay seems to like Boston and vice versa. He's not guaranteed to test free agency (like every Boras client has to date). He has spoken in terms that make it clear he's willing to accept an offer that he considers fair, as opposed to one that he considers "respectful."
Separately, there's another left fielder who is a Boras client who will be out there in the off-season for the Yankees to focus on when Matsui's and Damon's contracts are off the books.
Posted by: Paul SF | Thursday, July 02, 2009 at 02:33 PM
Manny??? That would be insane...
Posted by: krueg | Thursday, July 02, 2009 at 02:48 PM
I think he's talking about Matt Holliday, Krueg. Right?
Posted by: Atheose | Thursday, July 02, 2009 at 02:58 PM
Oh yeah...I don't want him either.
Posted by: krueg | Thursday, July 02, 2009 at 03:00 PM
Did you guys see the story about the Cuban defector?
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=4302422
Is he going to NY or Boston I wonder...
Posted by: krueg | Thursday, July 02, 2009 at 03:20 PM
After watching the post-rain-delay debacle the other night, I was in such pain that this is the first time I've actually come back to this or any other blog about the Sox. Couldn't read the Glob or anything either. So bad...
Yesterday helps me feel a bit better, but a Yankees loss today would really help, you know? Ay.
Posted by: stuck working | Thursday, July 02, 2009 at 04:51 PM
krueg- watched the chapman kid* (my guess is he's closer to 30 than 21) during the WBC. he was touched up a bit. hope the sox steer clear of him as he seems more likely an irabu/contreras type.
Posted by: sf rod | Thursday, July 02, 2009 at 05:17 PM
Kept pace with the Yankees? Aren't the Sox the pacemakers?
Posted by: Lar | Thursday, July 02, 2009 at 05:22 PM
So your mood is determined by how the Yankees do SW as opposed to how your team does???
Weird.
Does seem like a project rod from what I've been reading...
Posted by: krueg | Thursday, July 02, 2009 at 05:33 PM
hey krueg, the Sox aren't playing today. The Yanks are. QED.
Posted by: stuck working | Thursday, July 02, 2009 at 05:41 PM
That makes more sense then...
What does QED mean???
Posted by: krueg | Thursday, July 02, 2009 at 05:45 PM
krueg, I refer you to http://lmgtfy.com/?q=qed
Posted by: stuck working | Thursday, July 02, 2009 at 05:56 PM
I don't believe the Sox "kept pace" with the Yankees, but rather dropped a game in the standings. The Yanks haven't lost in a week,t the Sox have lost at least twice. If that's keeping pace get me outta here, we'll be well behind come September!
Posted by: SF | Thursday, July 02, 2009 at 06:07 PM
I think they 'kept pace' in the sense of not losing a game in the standings in the last one day, SF.
Seems 'held off' would be a better term to use.
Posted by: AndrewYF | Thursday, July 02, 2009 at 06:41 PM
krueg, I refer you to http://lmgtfy.com/?q=qed
Call the fire department, cause you just got burned.
Posted by: Atheose | Thursday, July 02, 2009 at 06:41 PM
I guess so???
Posted by: krueg | Thursday, July 02, 2009 at 06:46 PM
So Jack Nicholson is a Yankee fan? What, does he just choose whichever teams will most annoy Bostonians?
Posted by: IronHorse | Thursday, July 02, 2009 at 09:06 PM
He just has good taste...
Posted by: krueg | Thursday, July 02, 2009 at 10:37 PM
IH, I think he just wants to have some old friends for dinner.........
Posted by: dabize | Thursday, July 02, 2009 at 10:40 PM
CC sucks...streak over. Let the losing streak begin. F-ck.
Posted by: krueg | Thursday, July 02, 2009 at 10:48 PM
CC had a bad start.
So did Beckett yesterday.
I remember watching Tom Seaver losing the last game of the 1973 series and thinking that the ace sometimes just doesn't have it..... I was a kid, then and felt pretty mature for thinking that......but maybe a Mets fan maybe just has to be philosophical sometimes.
Twenty years later I came back to baseball and moved over to the dark side.............:<)
Posted by: dabize | Thursday, July 02, 2009 at 11:01 PM
...and just maybe I maybe should edit my posts
Posted by: dabize | Thursday, July 02, 2009 at 11:02 PM
"but maybe a Mets fan just has to be philosophical sometimes."
I tend to believe it's a prerequisite for the position.
Posted by: FenSheaParkway | Friday, July 03, 2009 at 03:05 AM
I'm so confused now...
biz and FSP are both Met/Sox fans???
Posted by: krueg | Friday, July 03, 2009 at 09:11 AM
Can't speak for dabize, but in my case, I'll be celebrating 10 years of MetSox fandom during this year's All-Star break: MF since '91; SF since '99.
Posted by: FenSheaParkway | Friday, July 03, 2009 at 11:02 AM
So you doubly hate the Yankees, huh FSP???? :)
Posted by: krueg | Friday, July 03, 2009 at 11:25 AM
Indeed, that antipathy in part precipitated becoming a SF. When I started school in Boston, I never envisioned rooting for the Sox. In the summer of '99 (the first I didn't go home) I looked around town and had my epiphany: "What makes these fans seem so familiar to me? Wait a sec, I should be fer 'em, not agin' em!" Of course, it helps that I don't remember the '86 World Series and never want to see that match up happen again.
Posted by: FenSheaParkway | Friday, July 03, 2009 at 12:09 PM