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"Chances are, I probably would have done it, too."

Rich Gossage, about to be inducted into Cooperstown, talking about steroids.

2008 Hall of Fame Vote Results

Goose in, Rice cooked (for the year, at least).

Gossage got 85.8% of the ballots, Rice 72.2% (75% needed for entry).  Unbelievably, Travis Fryman picked up two votes, Shawon Dunston picked up one, and Todd Stottlemyre (yes, Todd Stottlemyre) received a single vote.  WTF?

Early Returns: Gossage In, Rice In Limbo

ESPN's Keith Law is keeping track of HOF ballots on his personal blog, and has either found from public columns or received via e-mail 63 of them (or roughly 10 percent). He's calling it for Goose Gossage. Bert Blyleven, Andre Dawson and Jim Rice are all too close to call. Jack Morris and Tim Raines likely must wait another year:

TOTAL	63	Pct
Gossage	57	90%
Blyleven	45	71%
Dawson	43	68%
Rice	43	68%
Morris	29	46%
Raines	28	44%
McGwire	19	30%

If this proves accurate, what would be especially surprising is the big jump for Blyleven -- the most deserving of the candidates on the ballot this year -- after falling back last year to fewer than half the ballots. 

One also wonders, as a comment on Law's blog notes, whether those voters without email or newspaper columns might trend away from statistical analysis, potentially favoring borderline guys with great reputations (Rice, Dawson, Morris) while hurting statistical shoo-ins who played for terrible teams (Blyleven, Raines).

My statistical case for Rice -- who I readily admit is a borderline candidate, thanks to his quick decline -- is here. Another good case is made here.

Overreact Much?

From Nick Cafardo in the Globe:

The Baseball Writers' Association of America voted this morning to approve a resolution in which, starting in 2013, all contracts that have financial terms attached to major awards will not be eligible for consideration for that award.

The resolution stems from Curt Schilling's new contract. He will receive a $1 million bonus is he gets at least one Cy Young vote. The Baseball Writers' Association membership votes on the annual awards. The BBWAA will also notify the Major League Players' Association and Major League Baseball of its decision. A committee will discuss the issue with both the bodies at a future date.

Kuhn and O'Malley to Enter the HOF

Right now I'm just trying to wrap my head around the fact that Bowie Kuhn, an awful, awful commissioner, has been selected to enter the HOF by the Veterans Committee. Also entering: Walter O'Malley, Dick Williams, Billy Southworth, and Barney Dreyfus. Between Kuhn and O'Malley, you have two pretty controversial figures going in. And Marvin Miller is still out? Seriously???

Rice is Nice; Raines is Nicer

Our friend Jay Jaffe makes a compelling HOF case for Rock Raines over Jim Rice, though, to be fair, it's not an either/or situation.

Rice is Nice

If the general definition of a Hall of Famer is one who dominates the game for an extended period of time, usually considered to be at least a decade, what then should we make of these leaderboards for a 12-year period of time (1975-86)?

2008 HOF Candidates

In the 2007 Hall of Fame balloting by the BBWAA, there were two clear-cut, no-lose, first-ballot candidates in Cal Jr. and Tony Gwynn.  This year, the only addition to the roster of candidates who has a better than even-money chance of inclusion is one of the greatest base-swipers and most dangerous leadoff men of all time in the form of Tim "Rock" Raines, possessor of arguably the most telling and indictable nickname in recent memory.  Raines brings with him the juxtaposition of someone who has admitted to flagrantly flaunting the law while he played the game, in comparison to others on the list of candidates that have not admitted to disregarding the law while playing the game but over whose history hangs a dark cloud, the important and debatable points being how a player's personal flavor of vodka may have impacted their performance and whether that issue or their mea culpa (or lack thereof) is relevant to their consideration.

Sticky pharmaceutical and ethical quandaries aside, the most deserving member of this ballot is Jim Rice, who has waited too long for his recognition in Cooperstown.  It's his 14th time on the ballot; in the previous voting, he saw his percentage of the vote drop from 64.6 to 63.5 (75 percent is the threshold).  If Rice doesn't get elected this year, next year will be his last chance unless at some point the veteran's committee sees fit to eventually overturn what would be an egregious omission.  Blyleven should be in, as should Tommy John.  Goose will make it (if not this year, then soon; it's his ninth turn) and I'm pretty comfortable with the thought of Lee Smith enshrined.  I used to waver on Andre Dawson, but now I'm sure he belongs.  The problem is people, myself included, really like Hawk, which is the most difficult thing for me to rectify when looking at Rice V. Hawk.  Rice belongs, and this year may serve as his best chance to see him placed considering his body of work compared to the other worthwhile candidates.  The writers do not have to elect anyone to the Hall, but that has not happened since 1960, and should it really come down to yet another snub of Rice in favor of another perhaps equally worthy, but certainly not more worthy, candidate than he based on the fact that Hawk was/is popular and accessible (arguably the most popular Cubbie in recent history along with Santo), whereas Rice had a tumultuous relationship with the press, his teammates and his fan base?

This year, a somber inclusion is the exceedingly popular Rod Beck, whose five-year waiting period was waived due to his passing.  Next year, the big name on the ballot will be Rickey, a sure-fire first ballot choice, unless Rickey chooses to put Rickey's cleats back on, which is extremely unlikely, but hey, he's Rickey.  The full list follows.

Oh, So Close ... Again

David Ortiz this year extended a run that is pretty impressive: He has finished in the Top 5 in AL MVP voting for the fifth consecutive year, joining just three others.

• Lou Gehrig -- 7 (1931-36)
• Yogi Berra -- 7 (1950-56)
• Eddie Murray -- 5 (1981-85)
• David Ortiz -- 5 (2003-07)

Ted Williams gets an honorable mention, for having six straight MVPs in the years he played, but four MVPs were awarded between 1941 and 1946, and he didn't finish in the top five in any of them. Turns out there was something better he had to do.

That list is especially impressive when you consider, 1. The players who aren't on the list (DiMaggio, Mantle, Killebrew), and 2. How many more teams, and thus how many more players, are in the league now to provide competition for the top five spots. Murray and Ortiz (so far) both have the ignominy of never having won the award despite coming so close so often.

The National League is a different story, thanks to the otherwise weaker lineups and the dominant sluggers they've had there recently. Albert Pujols has six straight and could make it seven tomorrow. Barry Bonds had five straight twice (one for the clean era, one for the presumably dirty), and won the award four times in a row, something we'll probably never see again.

Crazy Sportswriters: Vote Revocation Petition Edition

Well, OK, we're not calling for them to lose their voting privileges. It's not quite that egregious. Not George-King-in-1999 egregious. But it's still a little ridiculous that three voters decided either Josh Beckett or C.C. Sabathia just weren't good enough this year for a Cy Young vote.

Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News and Jorge Ortiz of USA Today each listed Sabathia, Lackey (the AL ERA leader at 3.01), and the Indians' Fausto Carmona on their ballots, while Kevin Sherrington of the Dallas Morning News omitted Sabathia, listing Beckett, Carmona, and the Twins' Johan Santana.

Just as a reminder, here's a comparison of the five pitchers in question:

1. Sabathia: 19-7, 3.21 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 241 IP, 209 K, 37 BB
2. Beckett: 20-7, 3.27 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 201 IP, 194 K, 40 BB
3. Lackey: 19-9, 3.01 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 224 IP, 179 K, 52 BB
4. Carmona: 19-8, 3.06 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 215 IP, 137 K, 61 BB
5. Santana: 15-13, 3.33 ERA, 1.07 whip, 219 IP, 235 K, 52 BB [corrected]

In what universe was Santana better than Sabathia? Or Carmona better than Beckett?

I do think voters should lose their voting privileges if they're not willing to abide by the rules of the award (i.e. not voting for Japanese players for ROY despite the clear rule that they are eligible, or refusing to vote for pitchers for MVP, etc.). This is simply a judgment call. An inexplicably bad judgment call that raises the question of whether these men should be employed in their current positions, but one they're certainly entitled to make.