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YFSF Predictaroo, Election-Year Style

Now is no longer the winter of our discontent. Well, at least no longer than now lasts, which will be for a couple of days once the season kicks off in a couple hours, until those intrepid Sock and Athletic travelers return for a few more [fake] pre-season games state-side after their [real] battles in The Land of the Rising Sun. I'm rooting for Ghidorah.

As is customary on the cusp of a new season, we have spent dozens of minutes preparing predictions for your enjoyment, in(di)gestion, and prime bookmark material come October. Please note that YFSF staff predictions should be used for entertainment value only and should not be used for investment purposes. Or for entertainment value.

Will Carroll: Jacoby Ellsbury will slip on a banana peel in 2008.

Okay, he doesn't say that, but Baseball Prospectus' injury expert Will Carroll does list the talented rookie as a red light in his team health report for the Boston Red Sox (subscription needed). Carroll points to Ellsbury's youth and reliance on speed as risk factors. JD Drew and Clay Buccholz also get reds.

As I'm a Yanks fan, there's no need to report more optimistic predictions. But you can feel okay that one player's blister problems are a thing of the past, and that Dice-K is seeing green, even if he's already pitched 4 billion innings in his young life.

Also, it should be noted that Will Carroll feels Boston's medical staff is on the cutting edge. He didn't say it, but the Yanks are still using bloodletting, hot whiskey and Freudian analysis. We'll see who ends up healthier in the end!

The New Hero in the Dark

Last year, Hideki Okajima induced chuckles everywhere when he told the press corps he was perfectly fine being in Daisuke Matsuzaka's shadow.

"I am willing to be a hero in the dark," he said. You may have heard this quote roughly 2,000 times by now.

The problem with being a hero in the dark is that you can't do it twice. Put it this way: In October, the Colorado Rockies weren't exactly wondering why Matsuzaka had suddenly developed a massive neck twitch during his delivery. Okajima was no longer in shadow.

So for the Red Sox to be successful in 2008, another hero will likely have to emerge from the shadows. Someone we don't expect to be a major contributor but who -- either through talent or circumstance -- requires he be used regularly by October.

My nominee: Craig Hansen.

Hansen is fresh off surgery for sleep apnea; he's told the press he feels well rested for the first time in years. He seemed to finally have put it together at the end of 2007 after a year-plus of horrific struggles. So mark it down: Craig Hansen will be the bullpen cog the Red Sox can't be without come the September pennant race.

With this, the final day before pitchers and catchers report, and some congressional hearing going on in Washington, let's use this thread for some old-fashioned, optimistic spring baseball discussion.

Who do you see as the 2008 hero in the dark, for either team?

First to Third

Who's the best baserunner in the game? Lee Panas at Tiger Tales conducted a statistical survey, and found Jose Reyes to be rounding third with the rest of MLB scattered between home and second. In the AL, Johnny Damon (3) and Alex Rodriguez (7) are both in the top 10. Boston's Coco Crisp ranked fifth, and Julio Lugo also made it onto the leaderboard. (No sign of Jeter.) Hat tip to Alex Belth.

Projecting the 2008 Yankees

Here we go with Round 2. As a reminder, the Red Sox, based on the newly released PECOTA projections, are supposed to go 101-61 in 2008.

The Yankees, like the Red Sox, enter the season with few new names -- just a lot of young ones getting older and more experienced. Also like the Red Sox, the Yankees were unlucky when it came to one-run games -- which led to an underperformance of their Pythagorean record, and should be kept in mind when we get to projecting a record at the end of this post.

All that said, let's get to it.

Projecting the 2008 Red Sox

Last year, we received plenty of good feedback on my attempt to project the 2007 Red Sox and Yankees.  As I've described earlier this offseason, one of the methods I used came up with a remarkable 105 wins -- four off the Red Sox' 2007 Pythag record. That was a flawed prediction, and I won't be repeating the method for reasons I'll detail below. But the other, more accurate method came up with 99 wins -- just three off the Sox' actual total and two off the Pythag -- basically splitting the difference. Not bad.

Since you all seemed to enjoy it -- and since the projections didn't fall flat on their faces -- here is Part 1 of our second annual Predictions Special, projecting the Red Sox. The Yankees' projections will be forthcoming.

PECOTAing the Big Three

Baseball Prospectus has released its 2008 PECOTA Weighted Mean Projections (subscription required). Hey, I know that this forecasting thing is not everybody's cup of tea--predictions are silly; reality is more interesting and will actually happen--but I'm a big fan of the Nostradamus shows that pop up every once in a while, and that lady on the Montel Williams Show  is a national treasure. PECOTA is probably more reliable than dear unflappable Sylvia Browne, who would rather be burned alive than admit being wrong (that's the best kind of psychic!). It's one of the best baseball forecasting systems around, and it's become my secret weapon during my fantasy baseball draft. I was the league champion this past season, and I dedicated my victory to Nate Silver.

So if you're a Yankees fan, who are the first three players you check on the PECOTA list? Of course, it's the Big Three, as in Joba, Hughes and IPK. I have to say I was a bit surprised by their projections. First off, PECOTA loves Joba Chamberlain. That's not so surprising. He did look near unhittable during his first run through the majors. But of the Big Three, he is by far the biggest star (in 2008, at least) according to PECOTA. First there is the presence of Roger Clemens on his comparable players list. Then there is the predicted line: 145.7 innings, 162 k's, 3.39 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 33.7 VORP. Wow. If he does that, I'll be thrilled.

I was surprised more by the projections for the other two. My assumption, based on their relative prospects profiles, was that PECOTA would be more optimistic about Hughes than Kennedy in 2008. Actually, Kennedy projects to do slightly better than Hughes in 2008. Beyond that, I'd imagine PECOTA is more sanguine about The Franchise (does that nickname still apply?). Kennedy's predicted line: 141 innings, 120 k's, 1.40 WHIP, and 19.8 VORP. Hughes's line: 152 innings, 129 k's, 4.42 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 16.5 VORP. You have to think that their ages played a part in these projections. I'd be very happy with Kennedy's numbers based on what I've read his ceiling is. But it seems PECOTA is anticipating a few bumps in the roads (albeit, not big bumps) for Hughes. One thing I did notice was they were more optimistic about him going into 2007 than they are now about his 2008 season. Still, it's a decent line, especially when you consider his age.

I believe, as he did last year, Paul has plans to do projections for both the Sox and the Yanks based on the PECOTA numbers. I look forward to seeing them soon. Sorry to put the pressure on you, buddy:)

Peering Through the Crystal Ball [Revised]

I can't wait anymore.

The Holy Grail of preseason baseball projections -- PECOTA -- isn't out yet, and until it is, I can't do the full-fledged Red Sox and Yankees projections that everyone seemed to like last year (as it's the most accurate of the projection systems).

So as a taste here is a position-by-position comparison of the Sox and Yanks based on projections created by Bill James/Baseball Info Solutions, Dan Szymborski/Baseball Think Factory (ZiPS), Sean Smith (CHONE) and Tom Tango (Marcel).

Update: Now includes Ron Shandler's projections, as well. (Many thanks to Sam).

Too Early And Just In Time

I hope everyone enjoyed their New Year festivities.  At the gerbil house, it was burgers and an assortment of craft IPAs enjoyed while watching movies.  Crazy stuff.  At least this year I actually made it to midnight; last year I think I was asleep by about 10 pm, but that's what new borns do to one's new years.  The gritty, plucky resolution made by yours truly was to write the first post of the YFSF blog for 2008.  Lofty were my aspirations, and I am glad to have met them head-on.  Now I can kick back for twelve months.

Dayn Perry, in an article for Fox Sports, poses the sixty-four thousand-dollar question for the first time seen by me in this brand-spankin' new year.  Yep, that same chestnut that will be the point of dozens upon dozens of ultimately meaningless speculative articles to be written between now and when play resumes: "which American League East power, the Yankees or Red Sox, figures to hold sway in the division this season?"

Ignoring those pedants that would remind us that the answer could be "neither", Perry offers the risky possibility of "both", but concludes that the smart money is on the Sox.  To arrive at his answer, he provides brief comparisons of the lineups, rotation, pen, defensive capabilities, and managerial staff.  I'm more than a little ticked he called Robi Cano a "sub-optimal" defender.  I'm totally annoyed he mentioned the fact that Kei Igawa is the only lefty reliever because of the totally annoying fact that Kei Igawa is the only lefty reliever.  It truly breaks my heart that he said the Yankees need better numbers out of Melky because of the heart-breaking truth that the Yankees need better numbers out of Melky.

All the same, reading his article and arguing with the screen got the blood good-and-angered up, just what I needed to prod the anticipation for the start of the season to answer these and other burning questions.  Nothing like some good flamebait to keep hearth and home toasty during the long winter of wagging.

2007 Predictions Revisited

World Series, scmorld schmeries.

What we all really care about is: Who won the YFSF 2007 Staff Predictions?

Let's find out!