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ARod News: Sorta Hafta

Guess I gotta post a link. Don't wanna, but gonna. Okay, there. Done with that.

After that, read this. Much betta.

Edit: also, just for gits and shiggles, check out the video just added in the extended

Your Official Andy Pettitte Self-Abnegation Thread

This has been a horrible situation for me. I'm hoping and praying I don't have to do anything else with this.—Andy Pettitte

This pretty much sums things up for me, too. For those who somehow feel compelled to continue down this road to nowhere, the comments field is yours.

Light Hair On Fire, Put Fire Out With Hammer

Congressman Henry Waxman regrets holding the Wednesday hearings.

From Duff Wilson and Michael S. Schmidt in the NY Times:

"I'm sorry we had the hearing. I regret that we had the hearing. And the only reason we had the hearing was because Roger Clemens and his lawyers insisted on it." - Waxman

Clemens' attorney, Emperor Palpatine Rusty Hardin, sez oh, well then, allow me to retort:

... Waxman’s statements were “unbelievable, disingenuous and outrageous.” ..and.. “He is the one who created this circus in the first place"

What a fustercluck.

Wasting Taxpayer Money: Clemens-McNamee Gamer

Pitchers and catchers report tomorrow. Unfortunately, that's about the last thing on everybody's mind this morning.

Things don't look good for Roger Clemens. We don't know if he was kissed, but it appears he was certainly betrayed by a friend, as Andy Pettitte apparently filed an afidavit saying he discussed using HGH with Clemens, and the New York Times also is reporting that congressional investigators dug up their own corroborating evidence for Brian McNamee's story.

It's a story fascinating for its tawdriness. You don't want to watch, yet you can't look away, so you might as well comment on the hearing here.

Selection Bias

Two weeks ago YF linked to a piece by Alan Schwarz detailing the work of Eric Walker, who posits that late career performance spikes may have nothing at all to do with PED usage. Eric took time to detail his case further at this site here and here, in addition to his extensive work on his own site.

Today the Times gives space to three Wharton faculty members who examine Clemens' own camp's report, a report intended to explain the common-ness of Roger's geriatric excellence. Unlike Walker's views of Barry Bonds' late surge, the Wharton boys cast a skeptical eye over his accomplishments, seeing something "unusual" at work. Though they will not charge PEDs with influence (like the rest of us these Professors, advanced degrees and all, cannot know whether Roger actually used), their skepticism is reasoned and apparently impartial. Click over for some interesting reading.

Needles and Pins

I collect baseball cards. Others collect signed baseballs. The memorabilia market is hot for uniforms, old programs, photographs, and just about any bric-a-brac even marginally connected to the national pastime. Brian McNamee collects used syringes, which is a new one, but, let's face it: if there's any way to exploit the great game of baseball for profit, trust that someone will figure out how. That's just one of the many lessons raised by PED use. Those who wish to flame on about Clemens and the allegations against him can do so below. I'll take a pass.

The Clemens Report

Proving that his competitive drive is stronger than ever, Roger Clemens has released his own report. At 49 pages, it's a bit short of George Mitchell's, but it promises to be just as interesting a read. In it, he makes the case that his trendlines are not as anomalous as his critics (including myself) have argued.

Update: My take on the report after the jump.

Over the Wall, Over the Line

Alan Schwarz has one of his typically fine pieces in the Times today. The subject is Eric Walker, who argues that the so-called steroid era has not produced a discernible increase in power numbers across baseball, despite appearances. He blames a juiced ball for an anomalous surge in 1993-94, and uses a statistic called Power Factor (PF), or total bases per hit, to prove his thesis. PF has been steady during the steroid period. I'm wont to believe the steroid effect, whatever it might be, is over-stated by the layman, but Walker's methodology, as explained by Schwarz at least, is unconvincing. PF doesn't seem to me a reasonable indication of anything, given the complexity of the system it models and the immense number of moving parts involved (stadium size, expansion, etc.) One of the problems with steroids is that we're never going to know the true effects, because we're never going to have a controlled scientific study of what they can or can't do. That said, when a complex stat so patently fails to explain observed phenomena (Bonds, McGwire, etc.), then you need to look a bit more closely at your own methodology.

This is no defense of the Mitchell Report and subsequent Congressional furor. I can't imagine anything more sad than subpoening Chuck Knoblauch to testify against his will before grandstanding politicians. Just when it seems things couldn't get much worse, well, there always seems to be another level to which the game can sink. Ugh.

[Ed Note: Please take the time to read through the comments, as Mr. Walker took the time to respond to this post, and to some of the comments in the thread.]

Lowell: I Would Take HGH Test, If ...

From the AP:

World Series MVP Mike Lowell is willing to give blood if that's what it takes to be tested for human growth hormone. But only if the test is 100 percent accurate. Not 99 percent.

"If it's 99 percent accurate, that's going to be seven false positives," the Red Sox third baseman said Thursday before the annual dinner of the Boston chapter of the Baseball Writers' Association of America. "Ninety-three percent is 70 guys. That's almost three whole rosters.

"You're destroying someone's reputation. What if one of the false positives is Cal Ripken? Doesn't it put a black mark on his career?"

Easy to forget now that Lowell was one of the prime steroid suspects after he crashed and burned in 2005. As always, his candor is refreshing. Truly one of the class acts in sports.

Bud Selig Is a Little Confused

The New York Times, live-blogging this morning/afternoon's congressional steroid hearings, notices that Bud Selig is still having trouble coming to grips with his own complicity in the scandal:

2005 (March 17): “Do we have a major problem? No.”

2008 (Around 1:05 p.m.): “As far as I’m concerned, I don’t have a scintilla of doubt that the use of performance-enhancing drugs is a very serious matter for this sport — at its core. At its core.”

About 40 minutes later, Selig was asked if baseball could change its culture ... . He responded: “I have a lot more confidence than I did three years ago.”